This work was funded via Vetenskapsrådet Grant 2018-03859 awarded to Céline Heuzé. Morven Muilwijk received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement 101003826 via project CRiceS. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. We are grateful to Jianglong Li (BCC-CSM2-MR), Xinyao Rong (CAMS-CSM1-0), Gary Strand (CESM2), Andrew Shao and Neil Swart (CanESM5), Thomas Reerink (EC-Earth3), the GFDL Climate Model Info Team (GFDL-CM4 and GFDL-ESM4), Gavin Schmidt (GISS-E2-1-H), Olivier Boucher (IPSL-CM6A-LR), Hiroaki Tatebe and Yoshiki Komuro (MIROC6), Johann Jungclaus (MPI-ESM1-2-HR), Shogo Urakawa (MRI-ESM2-0), Øyvind Seland and Mats Bentsen (NorESM2-LM), and Andrew Yool and Colin Jones (UK-ESM1-0-LL), for their prompt replies to our questions regarding their respective models, indicated in parentheses. We are extremely grateful to Chuncheng Guo for sending us the NorESM2-LM output when we urgently needed them but their server was down. Finally, we thank the three reviewers Hailong Liu, Carolina Dufour, and Jonathan Rheinlænder, as well as the editor Yi Deng, for their many comments that greatly improved this manuscript.
Aagaard, K., 1981: On the deep circulation in the Arctic Ocean. Deep-Sea Res., 28A, 251–268, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(81)90066-2.
Aagaard, K., J. H. Swift, and E. C. Carmack, 1985: Thermohaline circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean seas. J. Geophys. Res., 90, 4833–4846, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC090iC03p04833.
Adcroft, A., and Coauthors, 2019: The GFDL global ocean and sea ice model OM4.0: Model description and simulation features. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 3167–3211, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001726.
Aksenov, Y., V. V. Ivanov, A. J. G. Nurser, S. Bacon, I. V. Polyakov, A. C. Coward, A. C. Naveira-Garabato, and A. Beszczynska-Möller, 2011: The Arctic circumpolar boundary current. J. Geophys. Res., 116, C09017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006637.
Armitage, T. W. K., G. E. Manucharyan, A. A. Petty, R. Kwok, and A. F. Thompson, 2020: Enhanced eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre in response to sea ice loss. Nat. Commun., 11, 761, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14449-z.
Årthun, M., and T. Eldevik, 2016: On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. J. Climate, 29, 689–704, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0448.1.
Behrendt, A., H. Sumata, B. Rabe, and U. Schauer, 2018: UDASH—Unified Database for Arctic and Subarctic Hydrography. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1119–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1119-2018.
Beszczynska-Möller, A., E. Fahrbach, U. Schauer, and E. Hansen, 2012: Variability in Atlantic Water temperature and transport at the entrance to the Arctic Ocean, 1997–2010. ICES J. Mar. Sci., 69, 852–863, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fss056.
Björk, G., M. Jakobsson, K. Assmann, L. G. Andersson, J. Nilsson, C. Stranne, and L. Mayer