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The Effect of Enhanced Greenhouse Warming on Winter Cyclone Frequencies and Strengths

Steven J. LambertCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

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Abstract

The extratropical winter cyclone climatologies for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are presented for a control, or 1 × CO2 simulation, and an enhanced greenhouse warming, or 2 × CO2 simulation, using the second generation Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. When compared to the control climatology, the 2 × C02 simulation exhibits a significant reduction in the total number of lows in both winter hemispheres. Although the total number of cyclones decreases, the frequency of intense cyclones increases, with this behavior being more significant in the Northern Hemisphere. Examination of the storm tracks in both simulations indicates that there is little change in their geographical positions with global warming.

Abstract

The extratropical winter cyclone climatologies for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are presented for a control, or 1 × CO2 simulation, and an enhanced greenhouse warming, or 2 × CO2 simulation, using the second generation Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. When compared to the control climatology, the 2 × C02 simulation exhibits a significant reduction in the total number of lows in both winter hemispheres. Although the total number of cyclones decreases, the frequency of intense cyclones increases, with this behavior being more significant in the Northern Hemisphere. Examination of the storm tracks in both simulations indicates that there is little change in their geographical positions with global warming.

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