Severe Cyclonic Storms in the Bay of Bengal, 1877–1977

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  • 1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411 005, India
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Abstract

An examination of the severe cyclonic storms which formed over the Bay of Bengal and those which struck the coast during the period 1877–1977 brings out a higher mean annual frequency, and a higher percentage of storms intensifying into severe storms, during the period 1965–77. By and large, the formation and landfall of these systems are random events in time continuum, consistent with the Poisson stochastic process. The probabilities of one, two or three severe storms striking the coast in a specific period on the basis of the Poisson probability model could be used for planning funds to instigate the sufferings of the people resulting from a severe storm striking the coast.

Abstract

An examination of the severe cyclonic storms which formed over the Bay of Bengal and those which struck the coast during the period 1877–1977 brings out a higher mean annual frequency, and a higher percentage of storms intensifying into severe storms, during the period 1965–77. By and large, the formation and landfall of these systems are random events in time continuum, consistent with the Poisson stochastic process. The probabilities of one, two or three severe storms striking the coast in a specific period on the basis of the Poisson probability model could be used for planning funds to instigate the sufferings of the people resulting from a severe storm striking the coast.

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