A Model to Predict the Probability of Precipitation

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Stockholm, Sweden
© Get Permissions
Full access

Abstract

A model to predict the probability of a specific amount of accumulated precipitation at a point in an area of extended convective precipitation has been developed. The model has been used in conjunction with a large-scale numerical forecast model to perform experimental forecasts of the probability of convective precipitation for two synoptic situations. The sensitivity of the probability forecasts of the model to variations in model parameters has been studied. The forecast probabilities are compared to observations and found to be in good agreement as to variations in time. However, the absolute values and variations from grid point to grid point of the predicted probabilities show considerable departures from observations. Some of the limitations of the probability model are discussed in so far as they can be separated from deficiencies in the large-scale forecast model on which they depend.

Abstract

A model to predict the probability of a specific amount of accumulated precipitation at a point in an area of extended convective precipitation has been developed. The model has been used in conjunction with a large-scale numerical forecast model to perform experimental forecasts of the probability of convective precipitation for two synoptic situations. The sensitivity of the probability forecasts of the model to variations in model parameters has been studied. The forecast probabilities are compared to observations and found to be in good agreement as to variations in time. However, the absolute values and variations from grid point to grid point of the predicted probabilities show considerable departures from observations. Some of the limitations of the probability model are discussed in so far as they can be separated from deficiencies in the large-scale forecast model on which they depend.

Save