Air-Sea Interaction and the Possibility of Long-Range Weather Prediction in the Indonesian Archipelago

Neville Nicholls Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne. Victoria, Australia

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Abstract

Evidence is presented supporting the hypothesis (first expressed over 60 years ago) that interannual fluctuations of early wet season rainfall in the Indonesian Archipelago can be successfully predicted from prior observations of atmospheric pressure anomalies. It is shown that this predictability is related to sea surface temperature anomalies. The postulated mechanism for this predictability is interaction of the atmosphere and ocean leading to a tendency for anomalies in the two media to persist. Experiments to testthis postulate are suggested.

Abstract

Evidence is presented supporting the hypothesis (first expressed over 60 years ago) that interannual fluctuations of early wet season rainfall in the Indonesian Archipelago can be successfully predicted from prior observations of atmospheric pressure anomalies. It is shown that this predictability is related to sea surface temperature anomalies. The postulated mechanism for this predictability is interaction of the atmosphere and ocean leading to a tendency for anomalies in the two media to persist. Experiments to testthis postulate are suggested.

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