On Predicting the Onset of the Australian Wet Season at Darwin

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  • 1 Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Centre, P.O. Box 5089AA, Melbourne, Australia 3001
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Abstract

An index of the date of onset of the North Australian wet season is defined based on rainfall received at a single station (Darwin). It is demonstrated that this index can be predicted some months ahead.

The amount of rain received during the wet season is only weakly related to the date of onset, and the amount of rainfall received in the middle and late portion of the season is totally unrelated to either the date of onset or to the amount of rain received in the early part of the season.

Discussion is presented on the relationship between the wet-season onset as here defined and the Australian monsoon onset as defined by Troup (1961). A distinction is made between the monsoon portion of the season and an earlier transition season which also accounts for a large proportion of the total rainfall.

Abstract

An index of the date of onset of the North Australian wet season is defined based on rainfall received at a single station (Darwin). It is demonstrated that this index can be predicted some months ahead.

The amount of rain received during the wet season is only weakly related to the date of onset, and the amount of rainfall received in the middle and late portion of the season is totally unrelated to either the date of onset or to the amount of rain received in the early part of the season.

Discussion is presented on the relationship between the wet-season onset as here defined and the Australian monsoon onset as defined by Troup (1961). A distinction is made between the monsoon portion of the season and an earlier transition season which also accounts for a large proportion of the total rainfall.

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