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The Speed of Recurving Typhoons over the Western North Pacific Ocean

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  • 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu 96822
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Abstract

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone data were evaluated for the period 1970–79 to determine characteristics of recurving typhoons near and after recurvature. Case studies revealed a good relationship between typhoon movement speed after recurvature and the upper tropospheric winds at and before recurvature observed along the future typhoon track. This relationship was then determined for a sample of 71 recurving typhoons from 1962 through 1978 and compared with operational forecasts for a subsample of 29 typhoons in 1972–78. The derived simple aid could have reduced the average forecast speed errors by more than 50% in the subsample.

Abstract

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone data were evaluated for the period 1970–79 to determine characteristics of recurving typhoons near and after recurvature. Case studies revealed a good relationship between typhoon movement speed after recurvature and the upper tropospheric winds at and before recurvature observed along the future typhoon track. This relationship was then determined for a sample of 71 recurving typhoons from 1962 through 1978 and compared with operational forecasts for a subsample of 29 typhoons in 1972–78. The derived simple aid could have reduced the average forecast speed errors by more than 50% in the subsample.

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