Australian Experimental Model Output Statistics Forecasts of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature

F. Woodcock Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

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Abstract

Model output statistics (MOS) forecasts of daily temperature maxima and minima are developed for seven Australian cities. The developmental data and method of derivation of the MOS equations are described and the equations briefly compared to those employed in the United States. The MOS equations are applied to four midseason months of independent data and the resulting forecasts are compared to the official forecasts. It is shown that the MOS forecasts of daily maxima are slightly worse than the official forecasts and are very poor compared to the official maximum forecasts at Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide in midsummer. In contrast, the MOS minimum temperature forecasts appear to be more accurate than the official forecasts.

Abstract

Model output statistics (MOS) forecasts of daily temperature maxima and minima are developed for seven Australian cities. The developmental data and method of derivation of the MOS equations are described and the equations briefly compared to those employed in the United States. The MOS equations are applied to four midseason months of independent data and the resulting forecasts are compared to the official forecasts. It is shown that the MOS forecasts of daily maxima are slightly worse than the official forecasts and are very poor compared to the official maximum forecasts at Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide in midsummer. In contrast, the MOS minimum temperature forecasts appear to be more accurate than the official forecasts.

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