Abstract
The large growth of SST anomalies during 1982–83 in the equatorial Pacific could have been predicted 4–5 months in advance via advanced statistical models. The decay of the warmth was not well predicted, a result attributed to the need for local forcing and thermodynamic considerations in the modeling process. “Kelvin-wave” models will likely have this same deficiency. The success of the statistical models indicates that the development of the SST anomalies during 1982–83 was not unusual.
