The Value of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts in a Haying/Pasturing Problem in Western Oregon

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  • 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331
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Abstract

The economic value of current and hypothetically improved seasonal precipitation forecasts is estimated for a regionally important haying/pasturing problem in western Oregon by modeling and analyzing the problem in a decision-analytic framework. Although current forecasts are found to be of relatively little value in this decision-making problem, moderate increases in the quality of the forecasts would lead to substantial increases in their value. The quality/value relationship is sensitive to changes in various economic parameters, including the decision maker's attitude toward risk.

Abstract

The economic value of current and hypothetically improved seasonal precipitation forecasts is estimated for a regionally important haying/pasturing problem in western Oregon by modeling and analyzing the problem in a decision-analytic framework. Although current forecasts are found to be of relatively little value in this decision-making problem, moderate increases in the quality of the forecasts would lead to substantial increases in their value. The quality/value relationship is sensitive to changes in various economic parameters, including the decision maker's attitude toward risk.

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