The Gorbush Storm in the Mediterranean Sea: Atmospheric and Wave Simulation

L. Dell'Osso European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

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L. Bertotti Istituto Studio Dinamica Grandi Masse/CNR, Venice, Italy

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L. Cavaleri Istituto Studio Dinamica Grandi Masse/CNR, Venice, Italy

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Abstract

The storm that disrupted the meeting between President Gorbachev and President Bush in Malta between 2 and 3 December 1989 is analyzed. The meteorological situation that caused the storm was simulated with two European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric numerical models—a global model (resolution T106) and a limited-area model (resolution T333)—and its effect on the sea was simulated with an advanced wave model (WAM). Verification of the wind and wave forecast shows that to obtain a realistic forecast of wave height and distribution it is necessary to increase the horizontal resolution of the model, whose grid size must be no more than 40 km.

Abstract

The storm that disrupted the meeting between President Gorbachev and President Bush in Malta between 2 and 3 December 1989 is analyzed. The meteorological situation that caused the storm was simulated with two European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric numerical models—a global model (resolution T106) and a limited-area model (resolution T333)—and its effect on the sea was simulated with an advanced wave model (WAM). Verification of the wind and wave forecast shows that to obtain a realistic forecast of wave height and distribution it is necessary to increase the horizontal resolution of the model, whose grid size must be no more than 40 km.

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