All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 66 18 6
PDF Downloads 35 1 0

Anomaly Correlation and an Alternative: Partial Correlation

Uwe RadokGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska

Search for other papers by Uwe Radok in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Timothy J. BrownCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Timothy J. Brown in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Full access

Abstract

The “anomaly correlation” between a predicted time series and a verifying series, both of which have had the same climatic history subtracted, combines their “direct” correlation with their two climate correlations and with the variance of the historical series. The direct correlation can be freed of climatic effects to become the “partial” correlation, which therefore seems a better parameter for judging predictive skill.

Abstract

The “anomaly correlation” between a predicted time series and a verifying series, both of which have had the same climatic history subtracted, combines their “direct” correlation with their two climate correlations and with the variance of the historical series. The direct correlation can be freed of climatic effects to become the “partial” correlation, which therefore seems a better parameter for judging predictive skill.

Save