Appreciation goes to all ECMWF staff and consultants who contributed to the development of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System, on which the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System is based. Acknowledgment goes to Franco Molteni, Robert Mureau, and Joe Tribbia, who contributed technically and scientifically to the implementation of the Ensemble Prediction System, and to Ron Gelaro, whose work contributed to the understanding of the relationship between singular vectors and sensitivity fields. Tim Palmer is also acknowledged for the inspiring discussions we had on very different aspects of ensemble prediction, as is Adrian Simmons for carefully revising a first version of this paper. The author would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers and R. L. Elsberry for their very appropriate comments.
Buizza, R., 1994a: Sensitivity of optimal unstable structures. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,120, 429–451.
——, 1994b: Localization of optimal perturbations using a projection operator. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,120, 1647–1681.
——, 1995: Optimal perturbation time evolution and sensitivity of ensemble prediction to perturbation amplitude. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,121, 1705–1738.
——, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci.,52, 1434–1456.
——, J. Tribbia, F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Computation of optimal structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus,45A, 388–407.
——, R. Gelaro, F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: Predictability studies using high resolution singular vectors. ECMWF Research Department Tech. Memo. 219, 38 pp. [Available from ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom.].
Courtier, P., C. Freyder, J. F. Geleyn, F. Rabier, and M. Rochas, 1991: The Arpege project at Météo France. Proc. Numerical Methods in Atmospheric Models, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 192–231.
Epstein, E. S., 1969: Stochastic dynamic predictions. Tellus,21, 739–759.
Errico, E. R., and M. Ehrendorfer, 1995: Moist singular vectors in a primitive-equation regional model. Preprints, 10th Conf. on Atmospheric and Oceanic Waves and Stability, Big Sky, MT, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 235–238.
Fleming, R. J., 1971a: On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part I: The energetics of uncertainty and the question of closure. Mon. Wea. Rev.,99, 851–872.
——, 1971b: On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part II: Predictability and utility. Mon. Wea. Rev.,99, 927–938.
Gleeson, T. A., 1970: Statistical-dynamical predictions. J. Appl. Meteor.,9, 333–344.
Hartmann, D. L., R. Buizza, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: Singular vectors: The effect of spatial scale on linear growth of disturbances. J. Atmos. Sci.,52, 3885–3894.
Hollingsworth, A., 1980: An experiment in Monte Carlo forecasting procedure. Proc. Workshop on Stochastic Dynamic Prediction, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 65–86.
Hoskins, B. J., and P. J. Valdes, 1990: On the existence of storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci.,47, 1854–1864.
Jacob, C., 1994: The impact of the new cloud scheme on ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Proc. Workshop on Modelling, Validation and Assimilation of Clouds, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 277–294.
Ledermann, W., 1984: Statistics. Vol. 6, Handbook of Applicable Mathematics, J. Wiley and Sons, 942 pp.
Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.,102, 409–418.
Lorenz, E. N., 1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus,34, 505–513.
Lott, F., and M. Miller, 1995: A new sub-grid scale orographic drag parametrization: Its formulation and testing. ECMWF Research Department Tech. Memo. 218, 34 pp. [Available from ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2-9AX, United Kingdom.].
Molteni, F., and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finite-time instability of the northern winter circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,119, 1088–1097.
——, R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,122, 73–119.
Mureau, R., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,119, 269–298.
Palmer, T. N., F. Molteni, R. Mureau, R. Buizza, P. Chapelet, and J. Tribbia, 1993: Ensemble prediction. Proc. Validation of Models over Europe, Vol. 1, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 21–66.
Rabier, F., E. Klinker, P. Courtier, and A. Hollingsworth, 1996: Sensitivity of forecast error to initial conditions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,122, 121–150.
Simmons, A. J., D. M. Burridge, M. Jarraud, C. Girard, and W. Wergen, 1989: The ECMWF medium-range prediction models development of the numerical formulations and the impact of increased resolution. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,40, 28–60.
——, R. Mureau, and T. Petroliagis, 1995: Error growth and predictability estimates for the ECMWF forecasting system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,121, 1739–1771.
Strang, G., 1986: Introduction to Applied Mathematics. Wellesley-Cambridge Press, 758 pp.
Strauss, B., and A. Lanzinger, 1995: Validation of the ECMWF EPS. Proc. Predictability, Vol. 2, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 157–166.
Tibaldi, S., T. N. Palmer, ;akC. Brancović, and U. Cubasch, 1990: Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Influence of horizontal resolution on systematic error and forecast skill. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,116, 835–866.
Tiedtke, M., 1993: Representation of clouds in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev.,121, 3040–3060.
Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,74, 2317–2330.
Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting,8, 379–398.
Viterbo, P., and A. C. M. Beljaars, 1995: An improved land surface parameterization scheme in the ECMWF model and its validation. J. Climate,8, 2716–2748.
Wilks, D. S., and T. M. Hamill, 1995: Potential economic value of ensemble-based surface weather forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.,123, 3656-3575.