This research is part of a larger effort at COLA to study the predictability of the coupled system. Members (J. Kinter, L. Marx, D. DeWitt, and M. Fennessy) of this group have provided invaluable advise. The extended integrations of the uncoupled AGCM were performed by L. Marx. M. Ji, and S. Zebiak provided the skill scores for the NCEP and ZC models, and we are grateful for their support and comments. We are also thankful to R. Reynolds and C. K. Folland for providing the SST data. L. Kikas assisted in archiving and managing the data. Anonymous reviewers’ comments were helpful in improving this manuscript. A large amount of computer time for this project was provided though NOAA’s Office of Global Programs, and we are very grateful to K. Mooney for providing this computer time. This work was supported under NOAA Grants NA26-GPO149 and NA46-GPO217, and NSF Grant ATM-93021354.
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