Acknowledgments go to Andreas Lanzinger for his helpful suggestions given during the development of signal detection theory diagnostic tools. Adrian Simmons and Olivier Talagrand are also acknowledged for their valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper.
Barker, T. W., 1991: The relationship between spread and forecast error in extended-range forecasts. J. Climate,4, 733–742.
Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev.,78, 1–3.
Buizza, R., 1994: Sensitivity of optimal unstable structures. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,120, 429–451.
——, 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev.,125, 99–119.
——, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci.,52, 1434–1456.
——, R. Gelaro, F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1997: Predictability studies with high resolution singular vectors. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,123, 1007–1033.
Courtier, P., C. Freyder, I. F. Geleyn, F. Rabier, and M. Rochas, 1991:The Arpege project at Météo France. Proc. Numerical Methods in Atmospheric Models, Vol. 2, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 192–231.
——, E. Andersson, W. Heckley, J. Pailleux, D. Vasiljevic, A. Hollingsworth, F. Rabier, and M. Fisher, 1998: The ECMWF implementation of three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-var). Part I: Formulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Epstein, E. S., 1969a: Stochastic dynamic predictions. Tellus,21, 739–759.
——, 1969b: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor.,8, 985–987.
Fleming, R. J., 1971a: On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part I: The energetics of uncertainty and the question of closure. Mon. Wea. Rev.,99, 851–872.
——, 1971b: On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part II: Predictability and utility. Mon. Wea. Rev.,99, 927–938.
Gleeson, T. A., 1970: Statistical–dynamical predictions. J. Appl. Meteor.,9, 333–344.
Hsu, W., and A. H. Murphy, 1986: The attributes diagram. A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probabilistic forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting,2, 285–293.
Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.,102, 409–418.
Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag.,30, 291–303.
Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,122, 73–119.
Palmer, T. N., F. Molteni, R. Mureau, R. Buizza, P. Chapelet, and J. Tribbia, 1993: Ensemble prediction. Proc. Validation of Models over Europe, Vol. 1, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 21–66.
Simmons, A. J., D. M. Burridge, M. Jarraud, C. Girard, and W. Wergen, 1989: The ECMWF medium-range prediction models development of the numerical formulations and the impact of increased resolution. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,40, 28–60.
Stanski, H. R., L. J. Wilson, and W. R. Burrows, 1989: Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. Atmospheric Environment Service Research Rep. 89-5, 114 pp. [Available Forecast Research Division, 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada.].
Tibaldi, S., and F. Molteni, 1990: On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus,42A, 343–365.
Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting,8, 379–398.
Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.
Zhu, Y., G. Iyengar, Z. Toth, S. Tracton, and T. Marchok, 1996: Objective evaluation of the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J79–J82.