Some parts of this paper are taken from the first author’s Ph.D. thesis at the University of Reading. The authors would like to thank Julian Heming and Humphrey Lean for assisting with rerunning the operational forecast, and also Andy Macallan, Dave Hennings, Nigel Roberts, and Tim Hewson for assistance with other data sources and programs. We would like to also thank Andy A. White, Michael E. McIntyre, Sid Clough, and Douglas Mansfield for useful discussions on this work. The first author is grateful to the Turkish Ministry of Education for a grant to support the original thesis work. Comments from the referees were very helpful in improving the exposition.
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