1) Synoptic history

The interaction of a tropical wave and a mid- to upper-level low resulted in the formation of a surface low pressure area over the Yucatan Peninsula on 28 June. This low was accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms that extended eastard over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. When the low moved toward the north-northwest over water and away from the Yucatan Peninsula, convection became better organized, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed at 0600 UTC 29 June. The depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Bill 6 h later.

Bill moved on a north-northwesterly to northerly track and gradually intensified. It turned toward the north-northeast and reached its peak intensity of 50 kt, with a minimum pressure of 997 mb, at 1800 UTC 30 June when the cyclone’s center was very near the Louisiana coast. Bill made landfall about 20 n mi west of Cocodrie, near King Lake, on the south coast of Louisiana at its peak intensity around 1900 UTC 30 June. Thereafter, Bill weakened to a tropical depression while moving across central Mississippi and Alabama. It became an extratropical low near the Tennessee–Virginia border at 1800 UTC 2 July and then was absorbed by a frontal system.

2) Meteorological statistics

Bill is estimated to have reached tropical storm staus based on a report of 38 kt from the ship HG3Q located to the northeast of the cyclone center at 1200 UTC 29 June. Bill’s peak intensity of 50 kt and minimum pressure of 997 mb were based on a report from a reconnaissance plane of 66 kt at 850 mb and a minimum surface pressure of 997 mb from Lumcon Marine Center, near Cocodrie, respectively. Table 2 is a list of significant surface observations. Rainfall totals ranged up to near 160 mm in southern Louisiana and up to near 100 mm in Mississippi. Storm surge flooding ranged up to 1.7 m above normal tide levels over southern Louisiana and Mississippi.

3) Deaths and damages

There were four deaths associated with Bill. A 10-yr-old boy drowned in Holly Spring Creek in Raleigh, North Carolina; a man was killed by a falling tree in Atlanta, Georgia; and two swimmers drowned at Panama City Beach, Florida, in rip currents produced by Bill. Much of the wind damage was downed branches and trees that caused power outages across the eastern portion of southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. The most significant storm surge floods occurred in coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana, primarily in southern Terrebone Parish where a levee was breached and overtopped in the Montegut area. This resulted in some homes being flooded. An F1 tornado (on the Fujita scale) touched down in Reserve, Louisiana, around 1710 UTC 30 June, hitting a private school and causing significant damage to several buildings. It then hit a mobile home park, damaging at least 20 homes. There was a total of 30 tornadoes from Louisiana through North Carolina. The Property Claim Services Division of the American Insurance Services Group, the Insurance Services Office, Inc., reports that insured losses due to Bill totaled 22 million dollars in Louisiana. Total losses for Louisiana and Mississippi are estimated at 50 million dollars.

4) Warnings

A tropical storm watch was issued from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, at 1500 UTC on 29 June. A tropical storm warning was issued from High Island, Texas, to Pascagoula, Mississippi, including Lake Ponchartrain, at 2100 UTC on the same day. Bill made landfall near the middle of the warning area about 22 h after the warning was issued. However, the landfall location was just east of the eastern limit of the watch area.

1) Synoptic history

Claudette formed from a tropical wave that moved westward across the coast of Africa on 1 July. The wave showed signs of convective organization on 6 July and was well enough organized on satellite imagery to be classified as a tropical depression on 7 July near the Windward Islands. However, the wave was moving westward at 20–25 kt at the time, and neither surface observations nor an investigative flight by the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicated that the system had a closed surface circulation.

The wave continued rapidly westward with a further increase in organization. Satellite intensity estimates suggested the system was near tropical storm strength by 1500 UTC 8 July. However, a second investigative flight could not find a closed center at that time. Finally, near 1800 UTC the plane found a small area of southwesterly winds that indicated a closed circulation and the wave is estimated to have become Tropical Storm Claudette while located about 200 n mi south of Hispaniola.

Claudette continued quickly westward through 9 July while slowly strengthening, and then turned northwestward with some deceleration on the following day. It formed a small eye and strengthened to a 70-kt hurricane for a few hours on 10 July, but became disorganized and weakened to 50 kt before making landfall on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico near 1000 UTC 11 July.

The storm moved northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico on 11 July. A north-northwestward jog occurred on 12 July while Claudette became a little better organized. The storm meandered erratically northwestward on 13 July, then turned northward later that day. These track changes were likely due to a combination of 1) weakening of a mid-upper-level ridge along the northern Gulf Coast caused by a developing trough over the eastern United States, and 2) reformation of the center caused by strong but asymmetric convection to the northeast. This change in motion was accompanied by some decrease in the shear, and while the center remained mostly exposed, Claudette slowly strengthened on 13 July.

A building deep-layer ridge over the western United States and the western Gulf Coast states forced Claudette to gradually turn west-northwestward late on 14 July. An eyewall formed and Claudette again became a hurricane at 0600 UTC 15 July. A faster west-northwestward motion brought the center of Claudette to the Texas coast at Matagorda Island (just east of Port O’Connor) at 1530 UTC that day (Fig. 2). Strengthening continued up to landfall, with estimated maximum winds increasing to 80 kt and the central pressure falling to 979 mb.

Claudette turned westward just after landfall and weakened to a tropical storm at 0000 UTC 16 July. It then turned west-northwestward again while moving into northern Mexico later that day. This motion continued until dissipation. Claudette was slow to lose organization, as the radar and satellite presentations of its structure remained distinct for more than 24 h after landfall. Surface data indicate the system maintained tropical storm strength until 0000 UTC 17 July. The low-level circulation dissipated over the mountains of northwestern Mexico later that day. However, the mid- and upper-level moisture and vorticity continued west-northwestward, eventually crossing southern California into the Pacific.

2) Meteorological statistics

The maximum flight-level winds observed by the aircraft were 85 kt at 0334 UTC 9 July (at an altitude of 457 m) and at 1517 UTC 15 July (at 700 mb). The latter observation was made as the eye of Claudette was crossing the Texas coast. Global positioning system (GPS) dropsondes deployed by the aircraft reported surface winds of 73 kt at 1526 UTC 10 July and 70 kt at 1516 UTC 15 July.

Early on 9 July, in the central Caribbean, an aircraft reported an 85-kt wind speed at 850-mb flight level and a central pressure of 1001 mb. Two hours later, a pass through the same part of the storm showed flight-level winds of only 56 kt. Based on this, the 85-kt wind speed was not considered representative, and it is estimated that Claudette remained a tropical storm and the best-track wind speed was 60 kt at 0600 UTC 9 July. However, it is possible that Claudette briefly reached minimal hurricane intensity at this time. Claudette is estimated to have become a hurricane at 1200 UTC on 10 July based on a 73-kt dropsonde surface wind observation.

Hurricane conditions occurred over portions of the middle Texas coast. The maximum sustained wind reported by an official observing site was a 10-min average of 65 kt at the Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) site on Matagorda Island, Texas (Table 3). The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network (TCOON) station at Port O’Connor reported a 6-min average sustained wind of 62 kt with a gust to 78 kt in the western eyewall. Victoria, Texas, reported 54-kt sustained winds with a gust to 72 kt, although these data are incomplete due to a power failure. Tropical storm conditions occurred along much of the middle and upper Texas coast. Cotulla, Texas, reported sustained winds of 36 kt with a gust to 46 kt at 0246 UTC 16 July, while Del Rio, Texas, reported a gust to 47 kt.

Tropical storm–force winds also occurred well inland over portions of southwestern Texas, including 38-kt sustained winds with a gust to 50 kt at the Terrell County airport at 1658 UTC 16 July. Other reports of tropical storm wind gusts occurred at Mt. Locke in the Davis Mountains, and at Guadalupe Pass and The Bowl in the Guadalupe Mountains. These winds were likely enhanced by mountainous terrain.

Tropical storm conditions likely occurred over portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, but there were no reports of tropical storm–force winds from that area. Winds gusted to tropical storm force at Montego Bay, Jamaica. Winds also gusted to tropical storm force on St. Lucia during the passage of the pre-Claudette tropical wave.

Many unofficial observations were received from the landfall area, with a selection included in Table 3. A storm chaser in Port O’Connor reported 83-kt sustained winds with a gust to 93 kt measured at the top of a vehicle with good exposure. While this observation is included in Table 3, it is notable that the winds are 15–20 kt higher than the nearby TCOON station and are considered to be in error. A report from Seadrift, Texas, indicated 84-kt sustained winds with a gust to 96 kt. However, an inspection of the site by Naional Weather Service (NWS) personnel showed that there may have been funneling of the winds across the instrument. Thus, the report is not included in Table 3.

Data from the NWS Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler units (WSR-88Ds) indicated winds of 95–105 kt between 1500- and 3000-m elevation in the northwest eyewall after Claudette made landfall. It is uncertain how to convert these winds to sustained surface winds over land. However, reduction factors derived from GPS dropsonde data over water suggest 85–90-kt sustained surface winds. A further reduction for land friction would reduce the radar winds to near or below the 75–80-kt range determined from the aircraft data.

Damage surveys were conducted by the staffs of NWS forecast offices in Corpus Christi and Houston. These surveys concluded the damage was consistent with category-1 sustained winds. Unpublished information from a damage survey by Haag Engineering also supports this determination.

Storm-surge flooding of up to 1.8 m above normal tide levels occurred near where the eye of Claudette made landfall. Storm tides (storm surge plus astronomical tide) of up to 2.7 m were measured in the Galveston–Freeport area (Table 3). Tides were up to 0.6 m above normal as far north as the southwestern Louisiana coast and as far south as the Baffin Bay, Texas, area.

Claudette moved quickly westward after landfall, which limited rainfall totals. The highest storm-total rainfall was 165 mm, four miles south-southeast of Tilden, Texas, and there were other reports of up to 150 mm amounts along the storm track. NWS WSR-88D data estimates that as much as 200 mm may have fallen in some areas. These rains caused minor flooding in southern Texas and some flash floods in southwestern Texas. Rainfall of up to 75 mm also occurred over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands, with 82 mm reported in Cancun, Mexico.

Two tornadoes were reported during Claudette. An F1 intensity tornado damaged several buildings in Palacios, Texas. A second tornado touched down in Port Lavaca, Texas, causing damage to some homes.

3) Deaths and damages

Claudette is responsible for one direct and two indirect deaths. The direct death was a 13-yr-old boy crushed by a falling tree in Jourdanton, Texas. The first indirect death was a 33-yr-old woman who was hit by a falling limb after the storm was over. The second indirect death was at Navarre Beach, Florida, when a 71-yr-old man died after being pulled from surf generated by Claudette. Press reports suggest the man suffered a heart attack while swimming.

The Property Claim Services Division of the American Insurance Services Group, the Insurance Services Office, Inc., reported that Claudette caused 90 million dollars in damage to insured property in the United States. The total damage estimate is twice this, or 180 million dollars. No significant damage was reported from Mexico, the Cayman Islands, or Jamaica. Minor damage was reported in St. Lucia from the pre-Claudette tropical wave.

4) Warnings

Hurricane warnings for the Texas coast were issued about 24 h before the center made landfall. A hurricane watch was issued from Port O’Connor southward about 48 h before Claudette made landfall, while a hurricane watch was issued for the remainder of the landfall area about 30 h before the center made landfall. The first tropical storm warnings for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula were issued 37 h before the center made landfall. Hurricane warnings issued on 10 July for the Yucatan Peninsula proved to be unnecessary, since Claudette weakened rapidly after being a hurricane for a few hours.

1) Synoptic history

Erika’s origin was nontropical. A weak surface low detached from a decaying frontal system about 1000 n mi east of Bermuda on 8 August. This low moved southwestward and then westward for several days, while interacting with an upper-level low. The combined weather system produced gusty winds in the Bahamas early on 14 August, where there was an unofficial report of a gust to 51 kt from Abaco Island. Convection was vigorous while the system moved across Florida during the morning of 14 August and then a closed surface low formed near 1800 UTC, about 75 n mi west of Fort Myers, Florida. With winds already of tropical storm strength, the system immediately became Tropical Storm Erika.

A strong deep-layer high pressure system over the south-central United States helped steer Erika westward across the Gulf of Mexico at about 22 kt. Erika strengthened as the cyclone’s central convection intensified and the low-level circulation became better defined late on 14 August. Strengthening continued on 15 August while Erika’s forward speed decreased and convection took on a more banded structure. Late in the day, an eye was visible in land-based radar imagery. Erika became a hurricane and reached its maximum intensity of 65 kt at landfall near 1030 UTC 16 August while located about 40 miles south of Matamoros, Mexico, near Boca San Rafael. The hurricane weakened rapidly after landfall and dissipated on 17 August over the mountains of northeastern Mexico.

2) Meteorological statistics

Despite an impressive and organized appearance on satellite imagery, the rapid westward motion of the pre-Erika disturbance hindered the development of a closed surface circulation. Data from reconnaissance aircraft, including dropsondes, were instrumental in determining when the disturbance became a tropical cyclone. Around 0800 UTC 14 August, aircraft flight-level data at 850 mb indicated the presence of a closed circulation just east of Key Largo, Florida. However a dropsonde revealed that the west winds measured by the aircraft were not present below flight level and advisories were not initiated until later in the day, when a new low-level circulation formed within the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Erika was never operationally upgraded to a hurricane. The highest flight-level observations from reconnaissance aircraft were 67 and 66 kt at 0213 and 0820 UTC 16 August, respectively. These observations were made at 700 mb and correspond to a surface wind of about 60 kt (the operational landfall intensity). A post-storm review of the Doppler velocity data revealed winds in excess of 85 kt over an area several miles across, in the eastern and northeastern (over water) portion of the eyewall near the time of landfall, from around 1000–1200 UTC, at an elevation of about 762 m. Adjustment of these (85 kt) winds to the surface, using a mean eyewall wind profile based on dropwindsonde observations (Franklin et al. 2003a), gives a surface wind estimate of 65 kt. There were no aircraft reconnaissance observations in this part of the cyclone after 0820 UTC. On the basis of the radar observations, Erika was posthumously upgraded to a hurricane. A pressure fall of at least 5 mb after the time of the 67-kt flight-level wind also suggests that Erika reached hurricane intensity. The estimated minimum pressure (986 mb) at landfall was determined by extrapolation of the pre-landfall deepening rate.

Selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 4. The strongest sustained wind observed over land was 35 kt (10-min mean) at San Fernando, Mexico, with a gust to 55 kt. In south Texas, sustained tropical storm force winds were observed in Brownsville.

In Magueyes, Mexico, 170 mm of rain was recorded. A number of other sites reported storm-total rainfall of 75 mm or more. In southern Texas, official and cooperative observing sites reported rainfall totals of less than 50 mm, although unofficial reports of up to 75 mm were also received from the Brownsville area. Doppler radar estimated isolated accumulations of 100–150 mm in Kenedy and Brooks counties.

3) Casualty and damages

Two persons died in Montemorelos, Mexico, when they tried to cross a bridge that was partially under water and their truck was swept away by flood waters. Damage to roofs and cars was reported in Matamoros, and numerous highways in northeastern Mexico were blocked by mud slides.

Isolated minor damage was reported in south Texas from minor coastal flooding and beach erosion on South Padre Island. There were no injuries or fatalities reported in the United States.

4) Warnings

A hurricane watch was issued at 0300 UTC 15 August for the southern Texas coast and for the northern Mexican coast about 31 h prior to landfall. A hurricane warning was issued at 1500 UTC 15 August, or about 19 h prior to landfall. The center of Erika came ashore roughly in the center of the hurricane warning area.

1) Synoptic history

Fabian began as a vigorous tropical wave that emerged from western Africa on 25 August and moved westward through the Cape Verde Islands a day later. By 27 August, the deep convection associated with the system became more consolidated in a circular area, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed at 1800 UTC, centered about 365 n mi west of the westernmost Cape Verde Islands. The depression became a tropical storm around 1200 UTC 28 August, and a hurricane by 0000 UTC 30 August over the east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Fabian reached its estimated peak intensity of 125 kt at 1800 UTC 1 September when it was centered about 265 n mi east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The hurricane maintained category-3 or -4 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale for almost a week.

Fabian was steered on a westward to west-northwestward heading for several days by deep easterlies to the south of a subtropical ridge. The forward speed gradually decreased from 18 to 19 kt just after genesis to less than 10 kt by 2 September, as the tropical cyclone neared a weakness in the subtropical ridge produced by a midlevel cyclonic circulation over the southwestern North Atlantic. Then, the hurricane turned toward the northwest while continuing to decelerate over the next couple of days. A large midtropospheric trough nearing the east coast of the United States turned Fabian northward with increasing forward speed. Fabian struck Bermuda with an intensity close to 100 kt. The eastern eyewall of the hurricane moved over Bermuda around 2000 UTC on 5 September (Fig. 3). Observers on the western end of the island reported a brief blue sky and winds decreasing to 50–60 kt at various times between 1945 and 2115 UTC, indicating that they were in the eastern fringes of Fabian’s eye.

After raking Bermuda, the hurricane accelerated northeastward, weakening to below 100 kt after 1800 UTC 6 September. Fabian lost tropical characteristics on 8 September while located about 700 n mi east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. It turned northward the next day and merged with another extratropical cyclone between southern Greenland and Iceland.

2) Meteorological statistics

Fabian’s peak intensity is estimated to be 125 kt, based on an aircraft reconnaissance wind of 140 kt at a flight level of 700 mb around 1917 UTC 1 September. A minimum central pressure of 942 mb was measured at that time. A lower central pressure of 939 mb was measured by NOAA at 2245 UTC 3 September, but maximum flight-level winds around that time supported an intensity of only 115 kt.

A 10-min average wind speed of 105 kt and a gust to 131 kt were measured by Cable and Wireless at an elevation of 280 ft above sea level. A 10-min wind speed of 104-kt winds, with gusts to 127 kt, were observed at Warwick Tower at an elevation of 67 m above ground level. Winds of 102 kt with a gust to 143 kt were measured by Bermuda Harbor Radio at an elevation of 78 m above sea level. These observations are unofficial and at elevations significantly higher than 10 m. They are, however, consistent with category-3 intensity. Unfortunately, because of a loss of power, the official wind measurements from the Bermuda Airport (TXKF) anemometer ended at 1935 UTC 5 September, and the extreme sustained and gust wind speed values were estimated by the observers.

3) Casualties and damages

Fabian was directly responsible for eight fatalities. A man drowned in a rip current near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on 4 September. Four people drowned when they and their vehicles were swept off a causeway in Bermuda on 5 September. Three fishermen drowned when their vessel sank about 350 n mi southeast of St. John’s, Newfoundland, on 7 September.

Bermuda was hit hard by Fabian. There was extensive damage to vegetation and considerable roof damage to houses in exposed locations. Some buildings had more severe damage, due to inherent structural weakness in some cases and possibly due to tornadoes (which were not confirmed) in others. There were huge battering waves, estimated at 6–9 m, on the south shore of the island, on top of a storm surge estimated near 3 m. Property damage in Bermuda is estimated to be at least 300 million U.S. dollars.

4) Warnings

A hurricane watch was issued 35 h before Fabian hit Bermuda, and a hurricane warning was issued 29 h in advance.

1) Synoptic history

Grace’s origin was a strong tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 19 August. Satellite data indicated that the wave came close to developing into a tropical cyclone several times as it crossed the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Finally, a tropical depression, and then Tropical Storm Grace, formed on 30 August over the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

An upper low located a few hundred miles to the west of Grace produced a persistent southerly to southwesterly upper-level shear, which limited development. Broad and somewhat disorganized, Grace moved northwestward on 31 August at about 15 kt.

Grace’s low-level circulation remained poorly organized as it approached the Texas coast near Corpus Christi early on 31 August. A new center formed near Galveston, about 100 n mi north of what had previously been the center. This new circulation center moved inland near San Luis Pass, Texas, on the southwestern tip of Galveston Island at 1100 UTC with 35-kt winds. The original circulation center weakened and eventually dissipated before it made landfall. Grace continued to move northwestward and quickly weakened after landfall. Grace turned northward over northeastern Texas on 1 September and merged with a frontal zone.

2) Meteorological statistics

Two ships reported tropical storm–force winds associated with Grace and several offshore oil-drilling platforms observed tropical storm–force winds, but these measurements were made several hundred feet above the surface. Grace’s estimated maximum 1-min surface wind speed of 35 kt is based on a blend of a reconnaissance 1500-ft flight-level spot wind report of 43 kt and two sustained 35-kt wind reports from Sea Rim State Park at 1000 and 1200 UTC 31 August 2003.

Maximum storm surge was around 0.6 m or less along the upper Texas coast, primarily on Galveston Island.

Rainfall across the Houston metropolitan area and the upper Texas coast was in the 75–125-mm range with some isolated reports in excess of 225 mm.

3) Casualty and damages

The main effect of Tropical Storm Grace was isolated heavy rainfall and some inland freshwater floods across the upper Texas coastal area. No deaths were reported.

4) Warnings

A tropical storm warning was issued at 1500 UTC on 30 August for the Texas coast from High Island to Corpus Christi, or about 21 h before landfall. The 35-kt wind observed at Sea Rim State Park was about 30 n mi outside of and northeast of High Island, which was the northeastern end point of the warning area. The unanticipated reformation of the surface low just before landfall is the reason for not having warnings extended far enough to the northeast.

1) Synoptic history

Isabel formed from a tropical wave that moved westward across the coast of Africa on 1 September. The wave moved slowly westward and gradually became better organized. By 0000 UTC 5 September, there was sufficient organized convection for satellite-based Dvorak subjective intensity estimates to begin. Development continued, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed at 0000 UTC 6 September. The depression became Tropical Storm Isabel 6 h later.

Isabel turned west-northwestward on 7 September and intensified into a hurricane. Isabel turned westward on 10 September and maintained this motion until 13 September on the south side of the Azores–Bermuda high pressure ridge. Isabel strengthened to a category-5 hurricane on 11 September with maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt at 1800 UTC that day. After this peak, the maximum winds remained in the 130–140-kt range until 15 September. During this period, Isabel displayed a persistent 35–45 n mi diameter eye. Figure 4 is a visible satellite image of Isabel on 12 September, when winds were estimated at 140 kt. Isabel approached a weakness in the western portion of the Azores–Bermuda high, which allowed the hurricane to turn west-northwestward on 13 September, northwestward on 15 September, and north-northwestward on 16 September

Increased vertical wind shear on 15 September caused Isabel to weaken. The system weakened below major hurricane status on 16 September. It maintained category-2 status with 85–90-kt maximum winds for the next two days while the overall size of the hurricane increased. Isabel made landfall near Drum Inlet, North Carolina, near 1700 UTC 18 September as a category-2 hurricane, then weakened as it moved across eastern North Carolina. It weakened to a tropical storm over southern Virginia, then became extratropical as it moved across western Pennsylvania on 19 September. Isabel then moved northward and was absorbed by a larger baroclinic system moving eastward across south-central Canada.

2) Meteorological statistics

The highest winds measured by reconnaissance aircraft were 158 kt at 700-mb flight level and 157 kt at 2560 m between 1700 and 1730 UTC 13 September. A 156-kt 700-mb wind was observed at 1719 UTC 12 September. Stronger winds were observed from GPS dropsondes in the eyewall, with a maximum of 203 kt reported at 806 mb (1372 m) at 1753 UTC 13 September. This is the strongest wind ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane.

Aircraft data on 12 September indicate that Isabel had winds near 140 kt. However, the maximum intensity based on satellite imagery was reached on 11 September before the first reconnaissance mission, and the satellite signature was less impressive at the time of the first mission. The maximum intensity estimate of 145 kt on 11 September is based on the aircraft data of 12 September and the satellite signature on the previous day. The minimum central pressure estimate of 915 mb on 11 September is based on similar reasoning.

The estimate of the maximum 1-min surface wind speed at landfall on 18 September is 90 kt, based on GPS dropsonde and stepped frequency microwave radiometer data.

Isabel brought hurricane conditions to portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The highest observed sustained wind over land (Table 5) was 69 kt with a gust to 85 kt at an instrumented tower near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, at 1622 UTC 18 September. A tower in Elizabeth City, North Carolina, observed 64 kt with a gust to 84 kt at 1853 UTC. The National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Cape Hatteras reported 68 kt with a gust to 83 kt before contact was lost. The Coastal Marine Automated Stations (C-MAN) at Chesapeake Light, Virginia, and Duck, North Carolina, reported similar wind speeds. Elsewhere in Virginia, Gloucester Point reported 60-kt with a gust to 79 kt at 2200 UTC 18 September, while the Norfolk Naval Air Station reported 50 kt with a gust to 72 kt at 2100 UTC that day. Unofficial reports from the affected area include a gust of 102 kt at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, 93 kt at Gwynns Island, Virginia, 91 kt at Ocracoke, North Carolina, and 88 kt at New Bern, North Carolina. The wind record from the most seriously affected areas is incomplete, as several observing stations were either destroyed or lost power while Isabel passed.

Isabel brought tropical storm conditions to a large area from eastern North Carolina northward to the eastern Great Lakes and western New England. The C-MAN station at Thomas Point, Maryland, reported 42 kt with a gust to 58 kt at 0850 UTC 19 September. Reagan National Airport in Washington, D.C., reported 39 kt with a gust to 50 kt at 0139 UTC that day. Tropical-storm-force winds were reported at Kennedy and LaGuardia Airports in New York City, while a gust of 52 kt was reported in Middletown, Pennsylvania. Extratropical Isabel brought gale-force winds to portions of the eastern Great Lakes and southeastern Canada.

The lowest pressure observed by reconnaissance aircraft was 920 mb at 1712 and 1901 UTC 12 September. The lowest pressures observed on land were unofficial reports of 957 mb at Arrowhead Beach, North Carolina, and 958 mb from a storm chaser in Hobucken, North Carolina. The lowest pressures from official observation sites were 962.8 mb from an instrumented tower in Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, at 1645 UTC 18 September, and 963.5 mb at Washington, North Carolina, at 1944 UTC that day.

Isabel produced storm surges of 2–2.5 m above normal tide levels near the point of landfall along the Atlantic coast of North Carolina. Farther north, storm surge values ranged from 1 to 2 m along the Virginia coast, 0.6 to 1.2 m along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey shorelines, and 0.3–0.6 m along the coast of Long Island and in the Long Island Sound.

In the North Carolina estuaries, storm surge values were generally 1–2 m above normal tide levels over the eastern portions of the Pamlico Sound and most of the Albemarle Sound. Values of 2–3 m above normal tide levels were observed in the western end of the Pamlico Sound with a maximum value of 3.2 m reported on the Neuse River in Craven County.

Storm surges of 1–1.5 m above normal tide levels were observed over the central portions of the Chesapeake Bay and 1.5–2 m along the shore of the southern portion of the Bay in the vicinity of Hampton Roads, Virginia. Surge values of 2–2.5 m above normal levels occurred in the upper reaches of the Chesapeake Bay near Annapolis and Baltimore, Maryland, and in most of the main stem rivers draining into the Chesapeake Bay. Even higher surges occurred at the heads of the rivers, with values of 2.6 m above normal levels at the Richmond City locks along the James River in Virginia and nearly 2.4 m along the Potomac River in Washington, D.C. Water levels exceeded previous record levels established in the Chesapeake—Potomac Hurricane of 1933 in Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Annapolis.

Storm surges in Delaware Bay were generally 1–1.2 m at the mouth of the bay and 1.5–2 ft at the head of the bay and along the Delaware River in the vicinity of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Rainfall from Hurricane Isabel ranged to 175 mm over large portions of eastern North Carolina, east-central Virginia, and Maryland. Rainfall totals of 200–300 mm with locally higher amounts occurred in the Shenandoah Valley in northern Virginia. Upper Sherando, Virginia, reported a storm total of 513 mm. Lesser amounts up to 100 mm occurred elsewhere over eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula.

One tornado occurred in association with Hurricane Isabel. It touched down in the Ocean View section of Norfolk, Virginia, at approximately 2200 UTC 18 September according to law enforcement officials. No Fujita scale rating was assigned to the tornado since its damage could not be distinguished from the other hurricane-related wind damage in the area.

3) Casualties and damages

Isabel is directly responsible for 17 deaths: 10 in Virginia, 2 in New Jersey, and 1 each in North Carolina, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island, and Florida. The deaths in Florida and Rhode Island were from high surf generated by the hurricane. Isabel was indirectly responsible for 34 deaths: 22 in Virginia, 6 in Maryland, 2 in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and 1 each in New Jersey and the District of Columbia.

Isabel caused widespread wind and storm surge damage in coastal eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Storm surge damage also occurred along Chesapeake Bay and the associated river estuaries, and wind damage occurred over portions of the remaining area from southern Virginia northward to New York. The insured property damage reported by the Property Claim Services Division of the American Insurance Services Group, the Insurance Services Office, Inc. totals $1.685 billion to $925 million in Virginia, $410 million in Maryland, $170 million in North Carolina, $80 million in Pennsylvania, $45 million in New York, $25 million in New Jersey, $20 million in Delaware, and $10 million in West Virginia. The total damage for Isabel is estimated to be about twice that of the insured damage, or $3.37 billion.

4) Warnings

A hurricane watch was issued for the landfall area 50 h before the center made landfall. A hurricane warning was issued 38 h before landfall.

1) Synoptic history

Juan’s origin was a large tropical wave that crossed the coast of Africa on 14 September and continued westward over the tropical Atlantic. On 20 September, the shower activity increased significantly but remained disorganized. By then, the wave was located about 600 n mi east of the Lesser Antilles and was interacting with a large upper-level low. This low was associated with the outflow of powerful Hurricane Isabel, then located well to the northwest, and partly associated with the midoceanic upper-level trough. The wave spawned a middle-level circulation that moved northwestward away from the Lesser Antilles around the upper low and then interacted with a frontal zone. A low-level circulation developed on 23 September, but it took another day to make the transition to a tropical cyclone, when the deep convection increased near the center and banding and outflow features developed. It is estimated that a tropical depression formed at 1200 UTC 24 September, about 300 n mi southeast of Bermuda. The cyclone became a tropical storm 12 h later, and then developed an eye and became a hurricane by 1200 UTC 26 September.

Juan moved toward the north and northwest as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone briefly expanded westward. The cyclone gradually intensified and reached its maximum intensity of 90 kt, with a minimum pressure of 969 mb, at 1800 UTC 27 September. Figure 5 is a satellite view of Juan with 90-kt winds on 28 September. Juan then turned northward again with an increase in forward speed, and made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, between Prospect and Peggy’s Cove around 0300 UTC 29 September with estimated 1-min winds of 85 kt and a minimum pressure of 973 mb. The cyclone crossed Nova Scotia as a weakening hurricane and became a tropical storm over Prince Edward Island. It then merged with a large extratropical low by 1800 UTC 29 September in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

2) Meteorological statistics

The estimate that Juan made the transition from a surface low in a frontal zone to a tropical cyclone is partially based on Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit data showing a weak warm core at mid- to upper levels of the cyclone. The timing of when Juan became a tropical storm is based on a quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) pass at 0925 UTC 25 September showing winds between 40 and 45 kt. In addition, as the developing center passed near the drifting buoy 41537, the surface pressure dropped to 992.6 mb at 2000 UTC. Juan was upgraded to hurricane status on 26 September based on the appearance of an eye on visible and infrared satellite imagery.

The center of Juan passed over a Canadian buoy (44142) between 2300 UTC 28 September and 0000 UTC 29 September, producing a wind change from east at 54 kt to southwest at 37 kt. The buoy’s lowest pressure was 974.7 mb.

The estimated intensity of 85 kt at landfall is primarily based on a report from McNab’s Island in Halifax Harbor. An anemometer at this location reported a 2-min wind of 81 kt and is elevated 10 m above the surface. In addition, there was an oil rig in Halifax Harbor whose instrument, at an elevation of 62 m, failed at 99 kt. Radar observations from Halifax indicate that the eye diameter at landfall was 18 n mi. Table 6 lists a selection of surface observations from Canada associated with Juan.

3) Casualties and damages

Hurricane Juan made landfall in Nova Scotia as one of most powerful and damaging hurricanes to ever affect Canada. The last time that the city of Halifax was hit by the eyewall of a hurricane was 22 August 1893.

There were two direct deaths associated with Juan due to falling trees. In addition, three indirect deaths occurred in a house fire speculated to have been started by candles during power outages. Halifax Harbor recorded an all-time record water level of 1.5 m above the normal tide levels, which resulted in extensive flooding of the Halifax and Dartmouth waterfront properties. Hundreds of thousands of maritimers lost power in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.

4) Warnings

A tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda at 2100 UTC 25 September and was discontinued at 1800 UTC 26 September when Juan passed about 200 n mi to the east of the island. Heavy rain and strong wind warnings were issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center as early at 0600 UTC 26 September for portions of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, or almost 3 days in advance of landfall.

1) Synoptic history

A tropical wave moved across the coast of western Africa on 17 September. Under hostile vertical shear, the wave continued uneventfully across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. On 27 September, a weak surface low pressure system developed on the wave axis located in the western Caribbean Sea. The low nearly formed into a tropical depression before it moved west-northwestward over the northern Yucatan Peninsula on 29 September. On the next day, the low had crossed the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf of Mexico and merged with a stationary frontal boundary and its associated horizontal temperature gradient. High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico combined with the frontal low pressure system to produce gale-force winds over the central and southern Gulf of Mexico, including the Bay of Campeche.

By 1 October, the gale center had drifted slowly westward into the Bay of Campeche and its convection became organized into curved band features. A reconnaissance flight indicated the horizontal temperature gradient had been replaced with warmer and homogeneous tropical air. It is estimated that the extratropical gale center made the transition into Tropical Storm Larry at 1800 UTC while centered about 260 n mi east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico.

Larry meandered slowly westward for two days and gradually strengthened. The cyclone reached its peak intensity of 55 kt at 0000 UTC 3 October about 160 n mi east-northeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Larry maintained that intensity for nearly three days while drifting erratically southward. Larry made landfall around 1000 UTC 5 October, near Paraiso in the state of Tabasco. By the next day, Larry weakened to a remnant low over the state of Vera Cruz. The remnant low moved southwestward and dissipated on 8 October over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

2) Meteorological statistics

Larry’s maximum intensity of 55 kt at 0000 UTC 3 October is based on a reconnaissance 457-m flight-level wind speed of 66 kt at 1932 UTC 2 October. The National Meteorological Service of Mexico reported that heavy rainfall occurred over the states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco, causing localized floods and mud slides. The rainfall total of 161 mm at Villahermosa, Mexico, was the largest official amount reported.

3) Casualty and damages

The government of Mexico reported five deaths caused by freshwater floods.

4) Warnings

Gale warnings were issued for a portion of the Gulf of Mexico coastline for the pre-Larry extratropical low pressure system about 24 h before it became a tropical storm. The government of Mexico issued a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch approximately 61 h in advance of the time of landfall.