The authors are grateful to Chris Snyder, Jeff Anderson, Dale Barker, Tom Hamill, Wei Huang, Mei Xue, Wei Wang, John Nielsen-Gammon, and Amy Stuart for their help and comments on forecast model, ensemble initiation, and filter design. Snyder, Nielsen-Gammon, and Stuart also provided thorough reviews of an earlier version of the manuscript. Thanks are also due to two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments. This research is sponsored by the NSF Grant ATM0205599 and by the Office of Navy Research under Grant N000140410471.
Aksoy, A., , F. Zhang, , J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, , and C. C. Epifanio, 2005: Ensemble-based data assimilation for thermally-forced circulations. J. Geophys. Res, 110 .D16105, doi:10.1029/JD005728.
Barker, D. M., , W. Huang, , Y-R. Guo, , and A. J. Bourgeois, 2003: A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system for use with MM5. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-453+STR, 68 pp.
Barker, D. M., , W. Huang, , Y-R. Guo, , A. J. Bourgeois, , and Q. N. Xiao, 2004: A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for MM5: Implementation and initial results. Mon. Wea. Rev, 132 , 897–914.
Daley, R., , and R. Menard, 1993: Spectral characteristics of Kalman filter systems for atmospheric data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev, 121 , 1554–1565.
Dowell, D. C., , F. Zhang, , L. J. Wicker, , C. Snyder, , and N. A. Crook, 2004: Wind and temperature retrievals in the 17 May 1981 Arcadia, Oklahoma, supercell: Ensemble Kalman filter experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev, 132 , 1982–2005.
Dudhia, J., 1993: A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State–NCAR Mesoscale Model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Wea. Rev, 121 , 1493–1513.
Evensen, G., 1994: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. J. Geophys. Res, 99 , 10143–10162.
Gaspari, G., , and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 125 , 723–757.
Hamill, T. M., , and C. Snyder, 2000: A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter—3D variational analysis scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev, 128 , 2905–2919.
Hamill, T. M., , C. Snyder, , and R. E. Morss, 2002: Analysis-error statistics of a quasigeostrophic model using three-dimensional variational assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev, 130 , 2777–2791.
Hamill, T. M., , C. Snyder, , and J. S. Whitaker, 2003: Ensemble forecasts and the properties of flow-dependent analysis-error covariance singular vectors. Mon. Wea. Rev, 131 , 1741–1758.
Houtekamer, P. L., , and H. L. Mitchell, 1998: Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Mon. Wea. Rev, 126 , 796–811.
Houtekamer, P. L., , and H. L. Mitchell, 2001: A sequential ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev, 129 , 123–137.
Houtekamer, P. L., , H. L. Mitchell, , G. Pellerin, , M. Buehner, , M. Charron, , L. Spacek, , and B. Hansen, 2005: Atmospheric data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter: Results with real observations. Mon. Wea. Rev, 133 , 604–620.
Keppenne, C. L., 2000: Data assimilation into a primitive-equation model with a parallel ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev, 128 , 1971–1981.
Keppenne, C. L., , and M. M. Rienecker, 2002: Initial testing of a massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter with the Poseidon isopycnal ocean general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev, 130 , 2951–2965.
Mitchell, H. L., , P. L. Houtekamer, , and G. Pellerin, 2002: Ensemble size, balance and model-error representation in an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev, 130 , 2791–2808.
Molteni, F., , R. Buizza, , T. N. Palmer, , and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 122 , 73–119.
Snyder, C., , and F. Zhang, 2003: Assimilation of simulated Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev, 131 , 1663–1677.
Snyder, C., , T. M. Hamill, , and S. B. Trier, 2003: Linear evolution of error covariances in a quasigeostrophic model. Mon. Wea. Rev, 131 , 189–205.
Whitaker, J. S., , and T. M. Hamill, 2002: Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations. Mon. Wea. Rev, 130 , 1913–1924.
Whitaker, J. S., , G. P. Compo, , X. Wei, , and T. M. Hamill, 2004: Reanalysis without radiosondes using ensemble data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev, 132 , 1190–1200.
Zhang, F., 2005: Dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance of a winter cyclone estimated through short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev, 133 , 2876–2893.
Zhang, F., , C. Snyder, , and R. Rotunno, 2002: Mesoscale predictability of the “surprise” snowstorm of 24–25 January 2000. Mon. Wea. Rev, 130 , 1617–1632.
Zhang, F., , C. Snyder, , and R. Rotunno, 2003: Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci, 60 , 1173–1185.
Zhang, F., , C. Snyder, , and J. Sun, 2004: Impacts of initial estimate and observation availability on convective-scale data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev, 132 , 1238–1253.
Zhang, S., , and J. L. Anderson, 2003: Impact of spatially and temporally varying estimates of error covariance on assimilation in a simple atmospheric model. Tellus, 55A , 126–147.