Thanks to Craig Bishop, who provided the seed thoughts for the idea of a “preemptive” forecast. Thanks to the attendees of the Workshop on Ensemble Weather Forecasting in the Short to Medium Range of September 2003, held in Val-Morin, Québec, Canada, for their feedback when this work was first presented. The contributions of Jim Hansen and Peter van Leeuwen to this manuscript are gratefully acknowledged.
Bishop, C. H., , B. J. Etherton, , and S. J. Majumdar, 2001: Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: Theoretical aspects. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 420–436.
Bishop, C. H., , B. J. Etherton, , and S. J. Majumdar, 2006: Conditioned verification region selection in adaptive sampling. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132 , 915–934.
Burgers, G., , P. J. van Leeuwen, , and G. Evensen, 1998: Analysis scheme in the ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 , 1719–1724.
Dee, D. P., 1995: On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123 , 1128–1145.
Etherton, B. J., , and C. H. Bishop, 2004: Resilience of hybrid ensemble/3DVAR analysis schemes to model error and ensemble covariance error. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 1065–1080.
Gaspari, G., , and S. E. Cohn, 1999: Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125 , 723–757.
Hamill, T. M., , and C. Snyder, 2000: A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter–3D variational analysis scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 2905–2919.
Hamill, T. M., , and C. Snyder, 2002: Using improved background-error covariances from an ensemble Kalman filter for adaptive observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130 , 1552–1572.
Hamill, T. M., , J. S. Whitaker, , and C. Snyder, 2001: Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 2776–2790.
Hansen, J. A., , and A. L. Smith, 2000: The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 57 , 2859–2871.
Houtekamer, P. L., , and H. L. Mitchell, 1998: Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 , 796–811.
Houtekamer, P. L., , H. L. Mitchell, , G. Pellerin, , M. Buehner, , M. Charron, , L. Spacek, , and B. Hansen, 2005: Atmospheric data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter: Results with real observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133 , 604–620.
Kalman, R. E., 1960: A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Trans. Amer. Soc. Mech. Eng., J. Basic Eng., 82 , 35–45.
Kalman, R. E., , and R. S. Bucy, 1961: New results in linear filtering and prediction theory. Trans. Amer. Soc. Mech. Eng., J. Basic Eng., 83 , 95–107.
Krishnamurti, T. N., , C. M. Kishtawal, , T. E. LaRow, , D. R. Bachiochi, , Z. Zhang, , C. E. Williford, , S. Gadgil, , and S. Surendran, 1999: Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science, 285 , 1548–1550.
Lorenz, E. N., , and K. A. Emanuel, 1998: Optimal sites for supplementary observations: Simulation with a small model. J. Atmos. Sci., 55 , 399–414.
Majumdar, S. J., , C. H. Bishop, , B. J. Etherton, , and Z. Toth, 2002: Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part II: Field program implementation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130 , 1356–1369.
Masutani, M., and Coauthors, 2006: Observing system simulation experiments at NCEP. NCEP Office Note 451, 34 pp. [Available online at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/NR/references/Masutani.2006.on451.pdf.].
Morss, R. E., , K. A. Emauel, , and C. Snyder, 2001: Idealized adaptive observation strategies for improving numerical weather prediction. J. Atmos. Sci., 58 , 210–232.
Stensrud, D. J., , J-W. Bao, , and T. T. Warner, 2000: Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 2077–2107.
Tippett, M. K., , J. L. Anderson, , C. H. Bishop, , T. M. Hamill, , and J. S. Whitaker, 2003: Ensemble square-root filters. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 1485–1490.
Toth, Z., , and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74 , 2317–2330.
Wang, X., , C. H. Bishop, , and S. J. Julier, 2004: Which is better, an ensemble of positive–negative pairs or a centered spherical simplex ensemble? Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 1590–1605.