We are grateful to an anonymous reviewer, whose comments led us to substantially rethink some of our views. Much of the work leading to this paper was done while ITJ was funded by a NERC Environmental Mathematics and Statistics Discipline Bridging Award (NER/T/S/2003/00126).
Ferro, C. A. T., D. S. Richardson, and A. P. Weigel, 2008: On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores. Meteor. Appl., in press.
Gneiting, T., and A. E. Raftery, 2007: Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 102 , 359–378.
Jolliffe, I. T., and D. B. Stephenson, 2003: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. John Wiley and Sons, 254 pp.
Mason, I. B., 2003: Binary events. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science, I. T. Jolliffe and D. B. Stephenson, Eds., John Wiley and Sons, 37–76.
Mason, S. J., 2004: On using “climatology” as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 1891–1895.
Müller, W. A., C. Appenzeller, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and M. A. Liniger, 2005: A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes. J. Climate, 18 , 1513–1523.
Murphy, A. H., 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 8 , 281–293.
Toth, Z., O. Talagrand, G. Candille, and Y. Zhu, 2003: Probability and ensemble forecasts. Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science, I. T. Jolliffe and D. B. Stephenson, Eds., John Wiley and Sons, 137–163.
Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2007: The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135 , 118–124.