Partial support for this work was provided by the Spanish government. We thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for providing the EPS data and the Department of Meteorology of the University of Reading for providing the rainfall observations. We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for comments that helped to improve the paper.
Epstein, E. S., 1985: Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach. Meteor. Monogr., No. 42, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 199 pp.
Ferranti, L., , E. Klinker, , A. Hollingsworth, , and B. J. Hoskins, 2002: Diagnosis of systematic forecast errors dependent on flow pattern. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128 , 1623–1640.
Glahn, H. R., 2004: Discussion of verification concepts in Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 769–775.
Gneiting, T., , A. E. Raftery, , A. Westveld, , and T. Goldman, 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133 , 1098–1118.
Gneiting, T., , F. Balabdaoui, , and A. E. Raftery, 2007: Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 69B , 243–268.
Hamill, T. M., , C. Snyder, , and R. E. Morss, 2000: A comparison of probabilistic forecasts from bred, singular vector, and perturbed observation ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 1835–1851.
Hamill, T. M., , C. Snyder, , and J. S. Whitaker, 2003: Ensemble forecasts and the properties of flow-dependent analysis-error covariance singular vectors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 1741–1758.
Jolliffe, I. T., , and D. B. Stephenson, 2005: Comments on “Discussion of verification concepts in Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science.”. Wea. Forecasting, 20 , 796–800.
Katz, R. W., , and M. Ehrendorfer, 2006: Bayesian approach to decision making using ensemble weather forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 21 , 220–231.
Molteni, E., , R. Buizza, , T. N. Palmer, , and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122 , 73–119.
Rajagopalan, B., , U. Lall, , and S. E. Zebiak, 2002: Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130 , 1792–1811.
Robertson, A. W., , U. Lall, , S. E. Zebiak, , and L. Goddard, 2004: Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 2732–2744.
Stephenson, D. B., 2008: An introduction to probability forecasting. Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, A. Trocolli et al., Eds., Nato Science Series, Vol. 82, Springer Academic, 235–258.
Stephenson, D. B., , and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2000: Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts. Tellus, 52A , 300–322.
Wang, X., , and C. H. Bishop, 2003: A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes. J. Atmos. Sci., 60 , 1140–1158.
Wilks, D. S., 2006b: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. International Geophysical Series, Vol. 91, Academic Press, 648 pp.
Wilks, D. S., , and T. M. Hamill, 2007: Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135 , 2379–2390.
Wilson, L. J., , and M. Valle, 2002: The Canadian Updateable Model Output Statistics (UMOS) system: Design and development tests. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 206–222.