We thank Richard Swinbank for useful discussions during the study. We acknowledge technical support from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science Computational Modelling Support team. We thank the Met Office for use of the MetUM and Richard Dumelow and Keir Bovis for providing technical help with the Met Office forecast suite. The study was supported by Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Grant GFDex NE/C003365/1.
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