This work was funded by grant/cooperative agreements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA10OAR4310210 and NA05OAR4311004), by the Swiss National Science Foundation through the National Centre for Competence in Research (NCCR) Climate, and by NSF Grants DMS-0906392, DMS-CMG-1025465, AGS-1003823, and SU-WI-EVP2010-04. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subagencies.
Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9, 1518–1530.
Bröcker, J., , S. Siegert, , and H. Kantz, 2011: Comments on “Conditional exceedance probabilities.” Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3322–3324.
Gneiting, T., , F. Balabdaoui, , and A. E. Raftery, 2007: Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 69B, 243–268.
Held, L., , K. Rufibach, , and F. Balabdaoui, 2010: A score regression approach to assess calibration of continuous probabilistic predictions. Biometrics, 66, 1295–1305.
Mason, S. J., , J. S. Galpin, , L. Goddard, , N. E. Graham, , and B. Rajaratnam, 2007: Conditional exceedance probabilities. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 363–372.
Seillier-Moiseiwitsch, F., , and A. P. Dawid, 1993: On testing the validity of sequential probability forecasts. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 88, 355–359.