The Met Office and the ECMWF are warmly thanked for authorizing to analyze the data from their operational global models. The author is indebted to Jean-Marie Willemet, Rémy Lee-Ah-Siem, and Ghislain Faure for the development of the cyclone tracking algorithm and data homogenization. This article gained more clarity after the suggestions of two anonymous reviewers and after a careful proofreading by Marie-Dominique Leroux.
Aberson, S. D., , and M. DeMaria, 1994: Verification of a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR). Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2804–2815.
Aberson, S. D., , and C. R. Sampson, 2003: On the predictability of tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific basin. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1491–1497.
Avila, L. A., , P. Caroff, , J. Callaghan, , J. Franklin, , and M. DeMaria, 2006: Track forecasts. Proc. Sixth WMO Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI), San José, Costa Rica, WMO, 12–18.
Chan, J. C., , and W. M. Gray, 1982: Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1354–1374.
Charney, J. G., , R. G. Fleagle, , H. Riehl, , V. E. Lally, , and D. Q. Wark, 1966: The feasibility of a global observation and analysis experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 47, 200–220.
Fiorino, M., 2009: Record-setting performance of the ECMWF IFS in medium-range tropical cyclone track prediction. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 118, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 20–27.
Fraedrich, K., , and M. Leslie, 1989: Estimates of cyclone track predictability. I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 115, 79–92.
Froude, L. S., , L. Bengtsson, , and K. I. Hodges, 2007: The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 315–333.
Heming, J. T., 2009: Evaluation of and improvements to the Met Office tropical cyclone initialization scheme. Meteor. Appl., 16, 339–351.
Heming, J. T., , J. C. Chan, , and A. M. Radford, 1995: A new scheme for the initialisation of tropical cyclones in the UK Meteorological Office global model. Meteor. Appl., 2, 171–184.
Hewson, T. D., , and H. A. Titley, 2010: Objective identification, typing and tracking of the complete life-cycles of cyclonic features at high spatial resolution. Meteor. Appl., 17, 355–381.
Leslie, L. M., , R. F. Abbey, , and G. J. Holland, 1998: Tropical cyclone track predictability. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 65, 223–231.
Montroty, R., , F. Rabier, , S. Westrelin, , G. Faure, , and N. Viltard, 2008: Impact of wind bogus and cloud and rain affected SSM/I data on tropical cyclones analyses and forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1673–1699.
Pike, A. C., , and C. J. Neumann, 1987: The variation of track forecast difficulty among tropical cyclone basins. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 237–241.
Plu, M., , P. Arbogast, , and A. Joly, 2008: A wavelet representation of synoptic-scale coherent structures. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3116–3138.
Simmons, A. J., , R. Mureau, , and T. A. Petroliagis, 1995: Error growth and estimates of predictability from the ECWMF forecasting system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1739–1771.
Smagorinsky, J., 1969: Problems and promises of deterministic extended range forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 286–311.
Talagrand, O., , and P. Courtier, 1987: Variational assimilation of meteorological observations with the adjoint vorticity equation. I: Theory. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113, 1311–1328.
Tsuyuki, T., , R. Sakai, , and H. Mino, 2002: The WGNE intercomparison of typhoon track forecasts from operational global models for 1991–2000. WMO Bull., 51, 253–257.