This research was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) L615-N10. We thank Steve Mullen, Tom Hamill, and two anonymous reviewers for their very constructive comments.
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Here dynamical ensembles have to be distinguished from statistical ensembles. A dynamical ensemble is a set of NWP model forecasts started from slightly different initial conditions and (possibly) run with different model physics while statistical ensembles are samples of historical data. In the following, subscript ens is used exclusively for the dynamical ensemble while subscripts analogs and dens are used for statistical ensembles of analogs.
Except for the first member (initialized with the analysis). However, the difference is marginal and therefore disregarded.