Daniel Dawson was supported by the National Research Council (NRC) Postdoctoral Fellowship, awarded at the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Louis Wicker and Edward Mansell were partially supported by NSF Grant ATM-0802717. Robin Tanamachi was supported by NSF Grants ATM-0637148 and ATM-0934307, and NOAA Grant NA08OAR4320904. David Dowell provided many helpful comments and code for the preparation of the VAD wind profiles. Some of the code used to plot the observation-space diagnostics was adapted from that provided by Therese Thompson. Conversations with Tom Hamill and David Stensrud were also very helpful. Jeff Hutton of the Dodge City, Kansas, National Weather Service Forecast Office kindly provided the shape files of the tornado tracks.
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Because of the manner in which the model state for each member was written to disk (at 1-min intervals), the forecasts were actually initialized from the prior states in the EnKF analysis cycle. For this reason, and because the 2-min data interval was used, the effective start times for the individual forecasts were 1–2 min prior to the times given here, depending on the time of the previous posterior analysis.
A value of 0.01 s−1 is roughly equivalent to a mesocyclone having a rotational velocity of ~25 m s−1 and a diameter of 5 km.