This work was primarily supported by NSF Grant EEC-0313747 as part of the ERC CASA program. The second author was also supported by NSF Grants AGS-0802888 and AGS-0738370, AGS-0608168, AGS-0750790, AGS-0941491, and OCI-0905040. The first author would like to personally acknowledge Daniel Dawson and Yunheng Wang for assistance in troubleshooting ARPS, and Alex Schenkman and Robin Tanamachi for helpful discussions regarding convective forecasting. We thank three anonymous reviewers for their input, which resulted in an improved manuscript. Computing was performed at the OU Supercomputing Center for Education & Research (OSCER) at the University of Oklahoma (OU) and at the Kraken supercomputer of the National Institute for Computational Sciences (NICS).
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