The authors gratefully acknowledge Dr. Chris Davis (NCAR) for his invaluable contributions to the direction of this research while hosting the first author as a graduate student visitor in the NCAR Advanced Study Program. Research support was provided by NSF Grant AGS-0935830 and NOAA Grant NA09OAR4310192. A portion of this research was completed while the first author held a National Research Council Research Associateship Award at the Naval Postgraduate School. The authors wish to thank Dr. Michael Riemer (University of Mainz) and an anonymous reviewer for their thoughtful and detailed suggestions that substantially improved the quality of this manuscript.
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The 250–150-hPa layer is the layer in which negative PV advection by the irrotational wind is typically maximized in association with recurving WNP TCs.
This domain size is selected to match the approximate spatial scale of the field of negative PV advection by the irrotational wind typically associated with recurving TCs. The values of the TC–extratropical flow interaction metric are relatively insensitive to domain size.
Schenkel and Hart (2012) note that reanalyses are better able to resolve TCs at higher latitudes than near the equator, which they speculate may be attributable in part to the increased horizontal resolution of reanalyses with latitude and to the wind field expansion of TCs undergoing ET (e.g., Evans and Hart 2008).
Western North Pacific TCs that fail to complete ET after recurving (non-ET TCs) tend to be less intense at recurvature, featuring a mean MSLP and MSW of 982 hPa and 27.7 m s−1 (53.9 kt), respectively. These means are significantly different from the respective MSLP and MSW means for recurving TCs that complete ET at the 99.9% confidence level based on a two-sided Student's t test.
The finding that the majority (67%) of January recurving TCs reintensify as ECs is likely an artifact of a small sample size.