• Aberson, S. D., 2014: A climatological baseline for assessing the skill of tropical cyclone phase forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 122129, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00130.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aberson, S. D., A. Aksoy, K. J. Sellwood, T. Vukicevic, and X. Zhang, 2015: Assimilation of high-resolution tropical cyclone observations with an ensemble Kalman filter using HEDAS: Evaluation of 2008–11 HWRF forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 511523, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00138.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Abraham, J., J. W. Strapp, C. Fogarty, and M. Wolde, 2004: Extratropical transition of Hurricane Michael: An aircraft investigation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 13231339, doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-9-1323.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Adams, D. K., and A. C. Comrie, 1997: The North American monsoon. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 21972213, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2197:TNAM>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Allard, R. A., 1984: A climatology of the characteristics of tropical cyclones in the Northeast Pacific during the period 1966–1980. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, 106 pp.

  • Archambault, H. M., L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. M. Cordeira, 2013: A climatological analysis of the extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 23252346, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00257.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arnott, J. M., J. L. Evans, and F. Chiaromonte, 2004: Characterization of extratropical transition using cluster analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 29162937, doi:10.1175/MWR2836.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Atallah, E. H., and L. F. Bosart, 2003: The extratropical transition and precipitation distribution of Hurricane Floyd (1999). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 10631081, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1063:TETAPD>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Atallah, E. H., L. F. Bosart, and A. R. Aiyyer, 2007: Precipitation distribution associated with landfalling tropical cyclones over the eastern United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 21852206, doi:10.1175/MWR3382.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baatsen, M., R. J. Haarsma, A. J. Van Delden, and H. de Vries, 2015: Severe autumn storms in future western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean. Climate Dyn., 45, 949964, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2329-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnes, E. A., L. M. Polvani, and A. H. Sobel, 2013: Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 15 21115 215, doi:10.1073/pnas.1308732110.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bassill, N., 2014: Accuracy of early GFS and ECMWF Sandy (2012) track forecasts: Evidence for a dependence on cumulus parameterization. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 32743281, doi:10.1002/2014GL059839.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bell, M. M., M. T. Montgomery, and K. E. Emanuel, 2012: Air–sea enthalpy and momentum exchange at major hurricane wind speeds observed during CBLAST. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 31973222, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-0276.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berger, H., R. Langland, C. S. Velden, C. A. Reynolds, and P. M. Pauley, 2011: Impact of enhanced satellite-derived atmospheric motion vector observations on numerical tropical cyclone track forecasts in the Western North Pacific during TPARC/TCS-08. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 23092318, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-11-019.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Beven, J. L., 2012a: RGB airmass imagery: a new tool to diagnose extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Proc. Fourth Int. Workshop on Extratropical Transition, Sainte-Adele, Quebec, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, 4.1, https://www.mcgill.ca/meteo/files/meteo/4_1_beven.pdf.

  • Beven, J. L., 2012b: An update on verification of NHC forecasts of extratropical transition. Proc. Fourth Int. Workshop on Extratropical Transition, Sainte-Adele, Quebec, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, 8.1, https://www.mcgill.ca/meteo/files/meteo/8_1_beven_et_al.pdf.

  • Black, M. L., J. F. Gamache, F. D. Marks, C. E. Samsury, and H. E. Willoughby, 2002: Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Jimena of 1991 and Olivia of 1994: The effect of vertical shear on structure and intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 22912312, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2291:EPHJOA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blake, E. S., T. B. Kimberlain, R. J. Berg, J. P. Cangialosi, and J. L. Beven III, 2013: Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Sandy (AL182012). Tech. Rep. AL182012, NOAA/National Hurricane Center, 157 pp., http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf.

  • Bosart, L. F., and D. B. Dean, 1991: The Agnes rainstorm of June 1972: Surface feature evolution culminating in inland storm redevelopment. Wea. Forecasting, 6, 515537, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1991)006<0515:TAROJS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bougeault, P., and Coauthors, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 10591072, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2853.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bowyer, P. J., and A. W. MacAfee, 2005: The theory of trapped-fetch waves with tropical cyclones—An operational perspective. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 229244, doi:10.1175/WAF849.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brennan, M. J., C. C. Hennon, and R. D. Knabb, 2009: The operational use of QuikSCAT ocean surface vector winds at the National Hurricane Center. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 621645, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222188.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Browning, K. A., 1990: Organization of clouds and precipitation in extratropical cyclones. Extratropical Cyclones: The Erik Palmén Memorial Volume, C. W. Newton and E. O. Holopainen, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 129–153.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Browning, K. A., 2004: The sting at the end of the tail: Damaging winds associated with extratropical cyclones. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 375399, doi:10.1256/qj.02.143.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brun, J., and A. P. Barros, 2014: Mapping the role of tropical cyclones on the hydroclimate of the southeast United States: 2002–2011. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 494517, doi:10.1002/joc.3703.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bruneau, N., J. Grieser, T. Loridan, E. Bellone, and S. Khare, 2017: The impact of extra-tropical transitioning on storm surge and waves in catastrophe risk modelling: Application to the Japanese coastline. Nat. Hazards, 85, 649667, doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2596-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Buckingham, C., T. Marchok, I. Ginis, L. Rothstein, and D. Rowe, 2010: Short- and medium-range prediction of tropical and transitioning cyclone tracks within the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 17361754, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222398.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Buizza, R., D. Richardson, and T. N. Palmer, 2001: The new 80-km high-resolution ECMWF EPS. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 90 (Spring), ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 2–9, https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2001/14634-newsletter-no90-spring-2001.pdf.

  • Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, G. Pellerin, Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and M. Wei, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 10761097, doi:10.1175/MWR2905.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carlson, T. N., 1980: Airflow through midlatitude cyclones and the comma cloud pattern. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 14981509, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1498:ATMCAT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carr, F. H., and L. Bosart, 1978: A diagnostic evaluation of rainfall predictability for Tropical Storm Agnes, June 1972. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 363374, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0363:ADEORP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, G. H., 2011: A comparison of precipitation distribution of two landfalling tropical cyclones during the extratropical transition. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 13901404, doi:10.1007/s00376-011-0148-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, S. S., J. A. Knaff, and F. D. Marks Jr., 2006: Effects of vertical wind shear and storm motion on tropical cyclone rainfall asymmetries deduced from TRMM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 31903208, doi:10.1175/MWR3245.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Corbosiero, K. L., and J. Molinari, 2002: The effects of vertical wind shear on the distribution of convection in tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 21102123, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2110:TEOVWS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Corbosiero, K. L., M. J. Dickinson, and L. F. Bosart, 2009: The contribution of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones to the rainfall climatology of the southwest United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 24152435, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2768.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Coumou, D., V. Pethokhov, S. Rahmstorf, S. Petri, and H. J. Schellnhuber, 2014: Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 12 33112 336, doi:10.1073/pnas.1412797111.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davis, C. A., S. C. Jones, and M. Riemer, 2008: Hurricane vortex dynamics during Atlantic extratropical transition. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 714736, doi:10.1175/2007JAS2488.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davis, C. A., W. Wang, J. Dudhia, and R. Torn, 2010: Does increased horizontal resolution improve hurricane wind forecasts? Wea. Forecasting, 25, 18261841, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222423.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DeHart, J. C., R. A. Houze Jr., and R. F. Rogers, 2014: Quadrant distribution of tropical cyclone inner-core kinematics in relation to environmental shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 27132732, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0298.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demirci, O., J. S. Tyo, and E. A. Ritchie, 2007: Spatial and spatiotemporal projection pursuit techniques to predict the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 45, 418424, doi:10.1109/TGRS.2006.882251.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dias Pinto, J. R., M. S. Reboita, and R. P. da Rocha, 2013: Synoptic and dynamical analysis of subtropical cyclone Anita (2010) and its potential for tropical transition over the South Atlantic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 10 87010 883, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50830.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dickinson, M., L. Bosart, K. Corbosiero, S. Hopsch, K. Lombardo, M. Novak, B. Smith, and A. Wasula, 2004: The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew (1992): A comparison. 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 17D.2, https://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techprogram/paper_75685.htm.

  • Doyle, J. D., C. A. Reynolds, and C. Amerault, 2011: Diagnosing tropical cyclone sensitivity. Comput. Sci. Eng., 13, 3139, doi:10.1109/MCSE.2010.146.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dudhia, J., 1993: A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State–NCAR mesoscale model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 14931513, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1493:ANVOTP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dvorak, V., 1984: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS11, 47 pp. [Available from NOAA/NESDIS, 5200 Auth Rd., Washington, DC 20233.]

  • Elsberry, R. L., and P. A. Harr, 2008: Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS08) field experiment science basis, observational platforms, and strategy. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 209231.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K., 2005: Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. Oxford University Press, 296 pp.

  • Evans, C., and R. E. Hart, 2008: Analysis of the wind field evolution associated with the extratropical transition of Bonnie (1998). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 20472065, doi:10.1175/2007MWR2051.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. L., and R. E. Hart, 2003: Objective indicators of the life cycle evolution of extratropical transition for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 909925, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0909:OIOTLC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. L., and B. E. Prater-Mayes, 2004: Factors affecting the posttransition intensification of Hurricane Irene (1999). Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 13551368, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1355:FATPIO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. L., and A. Braun, 2012: A climatology of subtropical cyclones in the South Atlantic. J. Climate, 25, 73287340, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00212.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. L., J. M. Arnott, and F. Chiaromonte, 2006: Evaluation of operational model cyclone structure forecasts during extratropical transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 30543072, doi:10.1175/MWR3236.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Farfàn, L. M., 2004: Regional observations during the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Juliette (2001) in Baja California, Mexico. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 15751589, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1575:RODTLO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Foerster, A. M., M. M. Bell, P. A. Harr, and S. C. Jones, 2014: Observations of the eyewall structure of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) during the transformation stage of extratropical transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 33723392, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00313.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fogarty, C., 2006: The extratropical transition of Tropical Storm Ophelia (2005): Summary of forecasts and meteorological observations. 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P6.1, https://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_107911.htm.

  • Fogarty, C., 2010: Forecasting extratropical transition. Proc. Seventh Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, St. Gilles Les Bains, La Reunion, France, World Meteorological Organization, 2.5, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/otherfileformats/documents/2_5.pdf.

  • Fogarty, C., and E. Blake, 2013: The double life of Hurricane Sandy and a climatological perspective of these post-tropical giants [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, S109S110.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fogarty, C., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2006: The role of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures on the intensity of Hurricane Juan (2003) during its approach to Nova Scotia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 14841504, doi:10.1175/MWR3140.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fogarty, C., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2007: The use of a vortex insertion technique to simulate the extratropical transition of Hurricane Michael (2000). Wea. Forecasting, 22, 480500, doi:10.1175/WAF1014.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Foley, G. R., and B. N. Hanstrum, 1994: The capture of tropical cyclones by cold fronts off the west coast of Australia. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 577592, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0577:TCOTCB>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus, 2015: Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frank, W. M., and E. A. Ritchie, 2001: Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 22492269, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2249:EOVWSO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fujibe, F., and N. Kitabatake, 2007: Classification of surface wind fields of tropical cyclones at landfall on the Japan main islands. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 747765, doi:10.2151/jmsj.85.747.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fujibe, F., N. Kitabatake, K. Bessho, and S. Hoshino, 2006: Comparison of surface wind fields in Typhoon 0418 (Songda) and Typhoon 9119 (Mireille) in western Japan. Pap. Meteor. Geophys., 57, 19, doi:10.2467/mripapers.57.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fujiwhara, S., 1931: Short note on the behaviour of two vortices. Proc. Phys. Math Soc. Japan, Ser. 3, 13, 106110.

  • Galarneau, T. J., Jr., L. F. Bosart, and R. S. Schumacher, 2010: Predecessor rain events ahead of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 32723297, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3243.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Galarneau, T. J., Jr., C. A. Davis, and M. A. Shapiro, 2013: Intensification of Hurricane Sandy (2012) through extratropical warm core seclusion. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 42964321, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00181.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garde, L. A., A. B. Pezza, I. Simmonds, and N. E. Davidson, 2010: A methodology of tracking transitioning Cyclones. IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 11, 012007, doi:10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012007.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gozzo, L. F., R. P. da Rocha, M. S. Reboita, and S. Sugahara, 2014: Subtropical cyclones over the southwestern South Atlantic: Climatological aspects and case study. J. Climate, 27, 85438562, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00149.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grams, C. M., and S. R. Blumer, 2015: European high-impact weather caused by the downstream response to the extratropical transition of North Atlantic Hurricane Katia (2011). Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 87388748, doi:10.1002/2015GL066253.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grams, C. M., S. C. Jones, and C. A. Davis, 2013: The impact of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) on the midlatitude flow. Part II: Downstream evolution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 21652180, doi:10.1002/qj.2119.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Griffin, K. S., and L. F. Bosart, 2014: The extratropical transition of Tropical Cyclone Edisoana (1990). Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 27722793, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00282.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gyakum, J., and J. Keller, 2014: Advances in understanding ET. Proc. Eighth Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Jeju, South Korea, World Meteorological Organization, 4.2, https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/Topic4.2_AdvancesinUnderstaidningET.pdf.

  • Haarsma, R. J., W. Hazeleger, C. Severijns, H. de Vries, A. Sterl, R. Bintanja, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and H. W. van den Brink, 2013: More hurricanes to hit western Europe due to global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 17831788, doi:10.1002/grl.50360.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hanley, D., J. Molinari, and D. Keyser, 2001: A composite study of the interactions between tropical cyclones and upper-tropospheric troughs. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 25702584, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2570:ACSOTI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harada, Y., and Coauthors, 2016: The JRA-55 reanalysis: Representation of atmospheric circulation and climate variability. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 94, 269302, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2016-015.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harnisch, F., and M. Weissmann, 2010: Sensitivity of typhoon forecasts to different subsets of targeted dropsonde observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 26642680, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3309.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harnisch, F., M. Weissmann, C. Cardinali, and M. Wirth, 2011: Experimental assimilation of DIAL water vapour observations in the ECMWF global model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 15321546, doi:10.1002/qj.851.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harr, P. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 2000: Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Part I: Evolution of structural characteristics during the transition process. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 26132633, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<2613:ETOTCO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harr, P. A., D. Anwender, and S. C. Jones, 2008: Predictability associated with the downstream impacts of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Methodology and a case study of Typhoon Nabi (2005). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 32053225, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2248.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hart, R. E., 2003: A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 585616, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0585:ACPSDF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hart, R. E., and J. L. Evans, 2001: A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 14, 546564, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0546:ACOTET>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hart, R. E., J. L. Evans, and C. Evans, 2006: Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition life cycle of North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Factors determining posttransition evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 553578, doi:10.1175/MWR3082.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hill, K. A., and G. M. Lackmann, 2009: Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 32943315, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2679.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hodges, K., A. Cobb, and P. L. Vidale, 2017: How well are tropical cyclones represented in reanalysis datasets? J. Climate, 30, 52435264, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0557.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ito, R., T. Takemi, and O. Arakawa, 2016: A possible reduction in the severity of typhoon wind in the northern part of Japan under global warming: A case study. Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 12, 100105.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jones, S. C., and Coauthors, 2003: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 10521092, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jung, B.-J., H.-M. Kim, F. Zhang, and C.-C. Wu, 2012: Effect of targeted dropsonde observations and best track data on the track forecasts of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using an ensemble Kalman filter. Tellus, 64A, 14984, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.14984.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Katsumata, M., S. Mori, B. Geng, and J. Inoue, 2016: Internal structure of ex-Typhoon Phanfone (2014) under an extratropical transition as observed by the research vessel Mirai. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 93339341, doi:10.1002/2016GL070384.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keighton, S., D. K. Miller, D. Hotz, P. D. Moore, L. B. Perry, L. G. Lee, and D. T. Martin, 2016: Northwest flow snow aspects of Hurricane Sandy. Wea. Forecasting, 31, 173195, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-15-0069.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Keller, J. H., S. C. Jones, J. L. Evans, and P. A. Harr, 2011: Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12802, doi:10.1029/2011GL047275.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kitabatake, N., 2008: Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific: Their frontal evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 20662090, doi:10.1175/2007MWR1958.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kitabatake, N., 2011: Climatology of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific defined by using cyclone phase space. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 89, 309325, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011-402.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kitabatake, N., and F. Fujibe, 2009: Relationship between surface wind fields and three-dimensional structures of tropical cyclones landfalling in the main islands of Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 959977, doi:10.2151/jmsj.87.959.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klein, P. M., P. A. Harr, and R. L. Elsberry, 2000: Extratropical transition of western North Pacific tropical cyclones: An overview and conceptual model of the transformation stage. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 373395, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0373:ETOWNP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klein, P. M., P. A. Harr, and R. L. Elsberry, 2002: Extratropical transition of western North Pacific tropical cyclones: Midlatitude contributions to intensification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 22402259, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2240:ETOWNP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knaff, J. A., D. P. Brown, J. Courtney, G. M. Gallina, and J. L. Beven II, 2010: An evaluation of Dvorak technique–based tropical cyclone intensity estimates. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 13621379, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222375.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kobayashi, S., and Coauthors, 2015: The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 548, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kofron, D. E., E. A. Ritchie, and J. S. Tyo, 2010a: Determination of a consistent time for the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Part I: Examination of existing methods for finding “ET time.” Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 43284343, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3180.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kofron, D. E., E. A. Ritchie, and J. S. Tyo, 2010b: Determination of a consistent time for the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones Part II: Potential vorticity metrics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 43444361, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3181.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kowaleski, A. M., and J. L. Evans, 2016: Regression mixture model clustering of multimodel ensemble forecasts of Hurricane Sandy: Partition characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 38253846, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0099.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kozar, M. E., and V. Misra, 2014: Statistical prediction of integrated kinetic energy in North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 46464657, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00117.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., and J. L. Franklin, 2013: Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 35763592, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00254.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lentink, H. S., 2017: Mechanisms determining structural changes during the extratropical transition of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008): A modelling study. Ph.D. dissertation, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 211 pp.

  • Li, Q., and Q. Wang, 2013: Re-examination of the potential vorticity metrics for determining extratropical transition onset and completion times using high-resolution data. Acta Meteor. Sin., 27, 502508, doi:10.1007/s13351-013-0404-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, Y.-L., S. Chiao, T.-A. Wang, M. L. Kaplan, and R. P. Weglarz, 2001: Some common ingredients for heavy orographic rainfall. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 633660, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0633:SCIFHO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, M., and J. A. Smith, 2016: Extreme rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones in the eastern United States: Hurricane Irene (2011). J. Hydrometeor., 17, 28832904, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-16-0072.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, M., G. A. Vecchi, J. A. Smith, and H. Murakami, 2017: The present-day simulation and twenty-first-century projection of the climatology of extratropical transition in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 30, 27392756, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0352.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lonfat, M., F. D. Marks Jr., and S. S. Chen, 2004: Precipitation distribution in tropical cyclones using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager: A global perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 16451660, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1645:PDITCU>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loridan, T., E. Scherer, M. Dixon, E. Bellone, and S. Khare, 2014: Cyclone wind field asymmetries during extratropical transition in the western North Pacific. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 421428, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0257.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loridan, T., S. Khare, E. Scherer, M. Dixon, and E. Bellone, 2015: Parametric modeling of transitioning cyclone wind fields for risk assessment studies in the western North Pacific. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 54, 624642, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0095.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ma, Z., J. Fei, X. Cheng, Y. Wang, and X. Huang, 2015: Contributions of surface sensible heat fluxes to tropical cyclone. Part II: The sea spray processes. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 42184236, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0058.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • MacAfee, A. W., and P. J. Bowyer, 2005: The modeling of trapped-fetch waves with tropical cyclones—A desktop operational model. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 245263, doi:10.1175/WAF850.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • MacAfee, A. W., and G. M. Pearson, 2006: Development and testing of tropical cyclone parametric wind models tailored for midlatitude application—Preliminary results. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 12441260, doi:10.1175/JAM2407.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magnusson, L., J. Bidlot, S. T. Lang, A. Thorpe, N. Wedi, and M. Yamaguchi, 2014: Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for Hurricane Sandy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 19621981, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00228.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mahoney, K., and Coauthors, 2016: Understanding the role of atmospheric rivers in heavy precipitation in the southeast United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 16171632, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0279.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Manion, A., C. Evans, T. L. Olander, C. S. Velden, and L. D. Grasso, 2015: An evaluation of advanced Dvorak technique–derived tropical cyclone intensity estimates during extratropical transition using synthetic satellite imagery. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 9841009, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-15-0019.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 10691079, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marks, F. D., Jr., R. A. Houze Jr., and J. F. Gamache, 1992: Dual-aircraft investigation of the inner core of Hurricane Norbert. Part I: Kinematic structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 919942, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<0919:DAIOTI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mashiko, W., 2008: Formation mechanism of a low-level jet during the passage of Typhoon Ma-on (2004) over the southern Kanto district. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86, 183202, doi:10.2151/jmsj.86.183.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matano, J., 1958: On the synoptic structure of Hurricane Hazel, 1954, over the eastern United States. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 36, 2331, doi:10.2151/jmsj1923.36.1_23.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matyas, C. J., 2010a: Locating convection in landfalling tropical cyclones: A GIS-based analysis of radar reflectivities and comparison to lightning-based observations. Phys. Geogr., 31, 385406, doi:10.2747/0272-3646.31.5.385.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matyas, C. J., 2010b: Associations between the size of hurricane rain fields at landfall and their surrounding environments. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 106, 135148, doi:10.1007/s00703-009-0056-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matyas, C. J., 2010c: A geospatial analysis of convective rainfall regions within tropical cyclones after landfall. Int. J. Appl. Geospatial Res., 1, 7191, doi:10.4018/jagr.2010020905.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matyas, C. J., 2013: Processes influencing rain-field growth and decay after tropical cyclone landfall in the United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 10851096, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0153.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. H. Atallah, 2006a: Hurricane Juan (2003). Part II: Forecasting and numerical simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 17481771, doi:10.1175/MWR3143.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, C. A. Davis, E. H. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum, and K. A. Emanuel, 2006b: Analysis of Hurricane Catarina (2004). Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 30293053, doi:10.1175/MWR3330.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McTaggart-Cowan, R., L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. H. Atallah, 2007: Hurricane Katrina (2005). Part I: Complex life cycle of an intense tropical cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 39053926, doi:10.1175/2007MWR1875.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Merrill, R. T., 1993: Tropical cyclone structure. Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, WMO/TD-560, Rep. TCP-31, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2.1–2.60.

  • Meyer, R. J., J. Baker, K. Broad, J. Czajkowski, and B. Orlove, 2014: The dynamics of hurricane risk perception: Real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 13891404, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00218.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Miller, D. W., and M. A. Lander, 1997: Intensity estimation of tropical cyclones during extratropical transition. JTWC Rep. JTWC/SATOPS/TN-97/002, 9 pp.

  • Milrad, S. M., E. H. Atallah, and J. R. Gyakum, 2009: Dynamical and precipitation structures of poleward-moving tropical cyclones in eastern Canada, 1979–2005. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 836851, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2578.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milrad, S. M., E. H. Atallah, and J. R. Gyakum, 2013: Precipitation modulation by the Saint Lawrence River Valley in association with transitioning tropical cyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 331352, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00071.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mokhov, I. I., E. M. Dobryshman, and M. E. Makarova, 2014: Transformation of tropical cyclones into extratropical: The tendencies of 1970–2012. Dokl. Earth Sci., 454, 5963, doi:10.1134/S1028334X14010127.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73119, doi:10.1002/qj.49712252905.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Munsell, E. B., and F. Zhang, 2014: Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler observations. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 3858, doi:10.1002/2013MS000297.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Munsell, E. B., J. A. Sippel, S. A. Braun, Y. Weng, and F. Zhang, 2015: Dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Nadine (2012) evaluated through convection-permitting ensemble analysis and forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 45144532, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00358.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ng, B., K. Walsh, and S. Lavender, 2015: The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in northwest Australia. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 26892697, doi:10.1002/joc.4148.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NOAA, 2013: Hurricane/Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy, October 22–29, 2012. NWS service assessment, 66 pp., http://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/Sandy13.pdf.

  • NOAA, 2016: Risk communication and behavior: Best practices and research findings. NOAA Social Science Committee, 66 pp., http://www.performance.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/Risk-Communication-and-Behavior-Best-Practices-and-Research-Findings-July-2016.pdf.

  • Olander, T. L., and C. S. Velden, 2007: The advanced Dvorak technique: Continued development of an objective scheme to estimate tropical cyclone intensity using geostationary infrared satellite imagery. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 287298, doi:10.1175/WAF975.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmén, E., 1958: Vertical circulation and release of kinetic energy during the development of hurricane Hazel into an extratropical storm. Tellus, 10, 123, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v10i1.9222.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pantillon, F., J.-P. Chaboureau, C. Lac, and P. Mascart, 2013: On the role of a Rossby wave train during the extratropical transition of Hurricane Helene (2006). Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 370386, doi:10.1002/qj.1974.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pantillon, F., J.-P. Chaboureau, and E. Richard, 2016: Vortex–vortex interaction between Hurricane Nadine (2012) and an Atlantic cut-off dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 419432, doi:10.1002/qj.2635.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Perrie, W., E. L Andreas, W. Zhang, W. Li, J. Gyakum, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2005: Sea spray impacts on intensifying midlatitude cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 18671883, doi:10.1175/JAS3436.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Petterssen, S., 1956: Weather Analysis and Forecasting. 2nd ed. Vol. I, McGraw-Hill, 428 pp.

  • Powell, M. D., 1982: The transition of the Hurricane Frederic boundary-layer wind fields from the open Gulf of Mexico to landfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 19121932, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<1912:TTOTHF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Qian, W.-H., J. Huang, and J. Du, 2016: Examination of Hurricane Sandy’s (2012) structure and intensity evolution from full-field and anomaly-field analyses. Tellus, 68A, 29029, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v68.29029.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Quinting, J. F., and S. C. Jones, 2016: On the impact of tropical cyclones on Rossby wave packets: A climatological perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 20212048, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00298.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Quinting, J. F., M. M. Bell, P. A. Harr, and S. C. Jones, 2014: Structural characteristics of T-PARC Typhoon Sinlaku during its extratropical transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 19451961, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00306.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reasor, P. D., M. D. Eastin, and J. F. Gamache, 2009: Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: Low-wavenumber structure and evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 603631, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2487.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reynolds, C. A., R. Langland, P. M. Pauley, and C. Velden, 2013: Tropical cyclone data impact studies: Influences of model bias and synthetic observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 43734394, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00300.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Riemer, M., and S. C. Jones, 2014: Interaction of a tropical cyclone with a high‐amplitude, mid-latitude wave pattern: Waviness analysis, trough deformation and track bifurcation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 13621376, doi:10.1002/qj.2221.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Riemer, M., P. Hofheinz, and S. C. Jones, 2006: Structural changes of low level wind field of tropical cyclones in idealised extratropical transition scenarios. 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P6.8, https://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_108714.htm.

  • Ritchie, E. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 2001: Simulations of the transformation stage of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 14621480, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1462:SOTTSO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ritchie, E. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 2003: Simulations of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Contributions by the midlatitude upper-level trough to reintensification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 21122128, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2112:SOTETO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ritchie, E. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 2007: Simulations of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Phasing between the upper-level trough and tropical cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 862876, doi:10.1175/MWR3303.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ritchie, E. A., K. M. Wood, D. S. Gutzler, and S. White, 2011: The influence of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone remnants on the southwestern United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 192210, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3389.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rogers, R. F., and Coauthors, 2006: The Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 15231537, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-11-1523.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rogers, R. F., and Coauthors, 2013: NOAA’s Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A progress report. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 859882, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00089.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 10151057, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Satake, Y., M. Inatsu, M. Mori, and A. Hasegawa, 2013: Tropical cyclone tracking using a neighbor enclosed area tracking algorithm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 35393555, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00092.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scheck, L., S. C. Jones, and M. Juckes, 2011: The resonant interaction of a tropical cyclone and a tropopause front in a barotropic model. Part II: Frontal waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 405419, doi:10.1175/2010JAS3482.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Semmler, T., S. Varghese, R. McGrath, P. Nolan, S. Wang, P. Lynch, and C. O’Dowd, 2008: Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02107, doi:10.1029/2006JD008213.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shapiro, M. A., and D. Keyser, 1990: Fronts, jet streams, and the tropopause. Extratropical Cyclones: The Erik Palmen Memorial Volume, C. W. Newton and E. O. Holopainen, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167–191.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Shin, J. H., and D.-L. Zhang, 2017: The impact of moist frontogenesis and tropopause undulation on the intensity, size, and structural changes of Hurricane Sandy (2012). J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 893913, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0362.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sinclair, M. R., 2002: Extratropical transition of southwest Pacific tropical cyclones. Part I: Climatology and mean structure changes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 590609, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0590:ETOSPT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, M. B., R. D. Torn, K. L. Corbosiero, and P. Pegion, 2016: Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011). 32nd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 14B.2, https://ams.confex.com/ams/32Hurr/webprogram/Paper293227.html.

  • Song, J., J. Han, and Y. Wang, 2011: Cyclone phase space characteristics of the extratropical transitioning tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Acta Meteor. Sin., 25, 7890, doi:10.1007/s13351-011-0006-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Song, J., R. Wu, W. Quan, and C. Yang, 2013: Impact of the subtropical high on the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Acta Meteor. Sin., 27, 476485, doi:10.1007/s13351-013-0410-6.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, Y., Z. Zhong, and Y. Wang, 2012: Kinetic energy budget of typhoon Yagi (2006) during its extratropical transition. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 118, 6578, doi:10.1007/s00703-012-0200-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thorncroft, C. D., and S. C. Jones, 2000: The extratropical transitions of Hurricanes Felix and Iris in 1995. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 947971, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0947:TETOHF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Torn, R. D., J. S. Whitaker, P. Pegion, T. M. Hamill, and G. J. Hakim, 2015: Diagnosis of the source of GFS medium-range track errors in Hurricane Sandy (2012). Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 132152, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00086.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 32973319, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Uhlhorn, E. W., B. W. Klotz, T. Vukicevic, P. D. Reasor, and R. F. Rogers, 2014: Observed hurricane wind speed asymmetries and relationships to motion and environmental shear. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 12901311, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00249.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Velden, C., and Coauthors, 2006: The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: A satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 11951210, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-9-1195.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vera, C., and Coauthors, 2006: Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems. J. Climate, 19, 49775000, doi:10.1175/JCLI3896.1.

  • Veren, D., J. L. Evans, S. Jones, and F. Chiaromonte, 2009: Novel metrics for evaluation of ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 28302850, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2655.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Waliser, D. E., and Coauthors, 2012: The “Year” of Tropical Convection (May 2008–April 2010): Climate variability and weather highlights. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 11891218, doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3095.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Walsh, K. J. E., and J. J. Katzfey, 2000: The impact of climate change on the poleward movement of tropical cyclone–like vortices in a regional climate model. J. Climate, 13, 11161132, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1116:TIOCCO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, Q., Q. Li, and G. Fu, 2012: Determining the extratropical transition onset and completion times of Typhoons Mindulle (2004) and Yagi (2006) using four methods. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 13941412, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00148.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weissmann, M., and Coauthors, 2011: The influence of assimilating dropsonde data on typhoon track and midlatitude forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 908920, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3377.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weissmann, M., R. H. Langland, C. Cardinali, P. M. Pauley, and S. Rahm, 2012: Influence of airborne Doppler wind lidar profiles near typhoon Sinlaku on ECMWF and NOGAPS forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 118130, doi:10.1002/qj.896.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weng, Y., and F. Zhang, 2016: Advances in convection-permitting tropical cyclone analysis and prediction through EnKF assimilation of reconnaissance aircraft observations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 94, 345358, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2016-018.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wolde, M., D. Marcotte, J. Jordan, J. Aitken, J. Abraham, and J. W. Strapp, 2001: The first Canadian experience with research flight operations in hurricane extratropical transition. Can. Aeronaut. Space J., 47, 179189.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wood, K. M., and E. A. Ritchie, 2012: The unusual behavior and precipitation pattern associated with Tropical Storm Ignacio (1997). Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 33473360, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00284.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wood, K. M., and E. A. Ritchie, 2013: An updated climatology of tropical cyclone impacts on the southwestern United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 43224336, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00078.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wood, K. M., and E. A. Ritchie, 2014a: A 40-year climatology of extratropical transition in the eastern North Pacific. J. Climate, 27, 59996015, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00645.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wood, K. M., and E. A. Ritchie, 2014b: A 32-year reanalysis intercomparison of tropical cyclone structure in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic. 31st Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 53, https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webprogram/Paper244195.html.

  • Wu, C. C., and Coauthors, 2005: Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR): An overview. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 787790, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-6-787.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yu, C.-K., and L.-W. Cheng, 2008: Radar observations of intense orographic precipitation associated with Typhoon Xangsane (2000). Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 497521, doi:10.1175/2007MWR2129.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yu, C.-K., and L.-W. Cheng, 2013: Distribution and mechanisms of orographic precipitation associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009). J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 28942915, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0340.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zarzycki, C. M., D. R. Thatcher, and C. Jablonowski, 2017: Objective tropical cyclone extratropical transition detection in high-resolution reanalysis and climate model data. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 130148, doi:10.1002/2016MS000775.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, F., and Y. Weng, 2015: Predicting hurricane intensity and associated hazards: A five-year real-time forecast experiment with assimilation of airborne Doppler radar observations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 2532, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00231.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, W., W. Perrie, and W. Li, 2006: Impacts of waves and sea spray on midlatitude storm structure and intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 24182442, doi:10.1175/MWR3191.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhou, Y., and C. J. Matyas, 2017: Spatial characteristics of storm-total rainfall swaths associated with tropical cyclones over the eastern United States. Int. J. Climatol., 37, 557569, doi:10.1002/joc.5021.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • View in gallery
    Fig. 1.

    A two-stage ET classification based on Klein et al. (2000). The onset and completion times correspond to the definitions of Evans and Hart (2003). The “tropical” and “extratropical” labels indicate approximately how the system would be regarded by an operational forecast center. Figure reproduced from Jones et al. (2003, their Fig. 11).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 2.

    Tracks of TCs that completed the transformation stage of ET for the (a) NATL [1981–2010; ET designations from HURDAT2 best track data, described in Landsea and Franklin (2013)], (b) WNP (1981–2010; ET designations from Japan Meteorological Agency best track data), (c) ENP [1971–2012; reanalysis-derived CPS ET designations by Wood and Ritchie (2014a)], and (d) SWIO [1987–2013; reanalysis-derived ET designations subjectively determined by Griffin and Bosart (2014)]. No attempt is made to account for ET classification practice differences between operational centers or the historical evolution of ET classification practices at these centers.

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 3.

    Conceptual model of the transformation stage of ET in the western North Pacific. Step 1 represents the commencement of the transformation stage, step 2 represents the TC encountering the baroclinic zone, and step 3 represents the TC becoming embedded within the baroclinic zone. Figure reproduced from Klein et al. (2000, their Fig. 5).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 4.

    Number of TCs (white bars) and number of ET cases (black bars) by month (each per left axis) during 1979–2004 in the WNP, as assessed using Japan Meteorological Agency best track data. The black line indicates the percentage of TCs that undergo ET to the total number of TCs in a given month (per right axis). Figure reproduced from Kitabatake (2011, their Fig. 10a).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 5.

    Average JRA-55 CPS frequency (e.g., number of times during its life span that a given TC is located at a given location within the CPS, and B only; shaded) per TC during 2001–10 in the (a) ENP (150 TCs) and (b) North Atlantic (here, ATL; 174 TCs). The arrows in each panel indicate the general trajectories that TCs in each basin follow through the CPS. Figure reproduced from Wood and Ritchie (2014a, their Figs. 10a,b).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 6.

    Summary of TC and ET events in the SWIO west of 90°E by (a) TC season and (b) month for the period 1989–2013. The full height of the bar represents TC events, while the bottom (blue) portion of the bar represents the number of ET events. In (a), the year on the chart refers to the year the TC season ended. In (b), events that occur in two months are included in the month in which the TC dissipated or underwent ET. Figure reproduced from Griffin and Bosart (2014, their Fig. 1).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 7.

    Azimuthally averaged 10-m wind speed (m s−1) as a function of radius at 0400 UTC 29 Aug (open circles; before ET), 1000 UTC 30 Aug (closed circles; during ET), and 1000 UTC 31 Aug (open squares; after ET) 1998, as obtained from the 12-km fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (Dudhia 1993), simulation of NATL TC Bonnie (1998). Figure reproduced from Evans and Hart (2008, their Fig. 5).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 8.

    Composite surface wind vectors (arrows, reference vector in the top right of each panel) and surface wind speed (isotachs, m s−1) for (a) the subset of TCs (n = 13) with wind maxima both left and right of track that made landfall in Japan from 1979 to 2004 and (b) all TCs (n = 70) that made landfall in Japan from 1979 to 2004. The y axis is taken in the direction of the storm motion. The cross in the center of each panel indicates the storm center. Figure reproduced from Fujibe and Kitabatake (2007, their Figs. 3d,f).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 9.

    Vertical cross sections of radar reflectivity (dBZ; shaded), tangential wind (m s−1; gray contours), and in-plane wind vectors composed of radial and vertical velocity (m s−1) for each shear-relative quadrant as synthesized by the Spline Analysis at Mesoscale Utilizing Radar and Aircraft Instrumentation (SAMURAI; Bell et al. 2012) software tool for the T-PARC research mission into Typhoon Sinlaku on 19 Sep 2008. Cross sections are taken from the corner of the domain to the center, 45° from the x and y axes in each quadrant: (a) upshear left, (b) downshear left, (c) upshear right, and (d) downshear right. Figure reproduced from Foerster et al. (2014, their Fig. 12).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 10.

    Maximum reflectivity between 0 and 15 km (dBZ; shaded), temperature (K; contours) at 1.5 km, and horizontal wind (m s−1; vectors with reference vector at lower right) at 1.5 km as synthesized by SAMURAI for the T-PARC research mission into Typhoon Sinlaku on 20 Sep 2008. The gray line denotes the flight track of the NRL-P3 and the red line denotes the flight track of the USAF-WC130. Filled circles give positions of dropsondes included in the SAMURAI analysis. Stars indicate positions of dropsondes in Fig. 7 in Quinting et al. (2014), while black arrows along the coordinate axes indicate positions of cross sections in Fig. 6 in Quinting et al. (2014). Figure reproduced from Quinting et al. (2014, their Fig. 4).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 11.

    Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (AHW; Davis et al. 2010) model-forecast 850-hPa potential temperature (K; shaded), vector wind (half barb = 2.5 m s−1; full barb = 5.0 m s−1; pennant = 25.0 m s−1), and wind speed (solid contours at 40, 45, 50, and 55 m s−1) of Sandy (2012) verifying at (a) 1000 and (b) 2000 UTC 29 Oct 2012. The AHW forecast was initialized at 0000 UTC 28 Oct 2012. Figure reproduced from Galarneau et al. (2013, their Figs. 7b,c).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 12.

    12-h forward trajectories starting at 925 hPa on a northwest–southeast-directed line crossing Japan at (a) 0000 UTC 19 Sep 2008 and (b) 0000 UTC 20 Sep 2008. The colors of the trajectories represent pressure (hPa). Equivalent potential temperature (K) at 925 hPa at trajectory starting time is given in gray shades. The location of Sinlaku’s simulated mean sea level pressure minimum is marked by a blue cross (at trajectory start) and circle (at trajectory end). Figure reproduced from Lentink (2017, their Figs. 5.3 and 5.20b).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 13.

    The average absolute and along- and cross-track errors of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System in the NATL and WNP basins for the period 2006–08. Error bars illustrate 95% confidence intervals on the mean as determined using bootstrapping. Both TC and ET tracks are included in the analysis. Along-track error is positive when a forecast lies ahead of its verifying position and cross-track error is positive when a cyclone is forecast to the right of its verifying position. Figure reproduced from Buckingham et al. (2010, their Fig. 4). (b) As in (a), but only TC tracks are included in the analysis (ET tracks excluded). Figure reproduced from Buckingham et al. (2010, their Fig. 5).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 14.

    Percentage of correctly classified cyclone phase forecasts by the linear discriminant analysis scheme of Aberson (2014) for dependent (short dashed; period of record 1980–2010) and independent (medium dashed; period of record 2011) samples. The long-dashed line indicates the percentage of correctly classified official NHC cyclone phase forecasts (period of record 2011). Note that the two 2011 samples are homogeneous. Figure reproduced from Aberson (2014, their Fig. 3).

  • View in gallery
    Fig. 15.

    Selected regional prediction system forecasts for NATL Hurricane Juan initialized at 0000 UTC 28 Sep 2003. Sea level pressure (solid lines; 4-hPa intervals) and winds (barbs; m s−1) are shown for the (left) initial state and (right) 24-h forecasts valid at 0000 UTC 29 Sep 2003. Model fields are indicated for the (a),(b) NCEP ETA Model; (c),(d) regional version of the Environment Canada Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM-R); (e),(f) GFDL Hurricane Model (GHM); and (g),(h) Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model. Minimum MSLP contours are 984 hPa in (e) and (f). Please see McTaggart-Cowan et al. (2006a) for relevant model details. Figure reproduced from McTaggart-Cowan et al. (2006a, their Fig. 6).

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 4273 2095 83
PDF Downloads 2635 973 60

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts

Clark Evans University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Search for other papers by Clark Evans in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Kimberly M. Wood Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi

Search for other papers by Kimberly M. Wood in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Sim D. Aberson NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida

Search for other papers by Sim D. Aberson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Heather M. Archambault NOAA/Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by Heather M. Archambault in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Shawn M. Milrad Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida

Search for other papers by Shawn M. Milrad in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Lance F. Bosart University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

Search for other papers by Lance F. Bosart in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Kristen L. Corbosiero University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

Search for other papers by Kristen L. Corbosiero in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Christopher A. Davis National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by Christopher A. Davis in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
João R. Dias Pinto University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Search for other papers by João R. Dias Pinto in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
James Doyle Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

Search for other papers by James Doyle in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Chris Fogarty Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada

Search for other papers by Chris Fogarty in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr. The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

Search for other papers by Thomas J. Galarneau Jr. in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Christian M. Grams Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Search for other papers by Christian M. Grams in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Kyle S. Griffin RiskPulse, Madison, Wisconsin

Search for other papers by Kyle S. Griffin in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
John Gyakum McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Search for other papers by John Gyakum in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Robert E. Hart Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

Search for other papers by Robert E. Hart in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Naoko Kitabatake Meteorological College, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan

Search for other papers by Naoko Kitabatake in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Hilke S. Lentink Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Search for other papers by Hilke S. Lentink in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Ron McTaggart-Cowan Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

Search for other papers by Ron McTaggart-Cowan in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
William Perrie Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada

Search for other papers by William Perrie in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Julian F. D. Quinting School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

Search for other papers by Julian F. D. Quinting in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Carolyn A. Reynolds Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

Search for other papers by Carolyn A. Reynolds in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Michael Riemer Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany

Search for other papers by Michael Riemer in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Elizabeth A. Ritchie University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia

Search for other papers by Elizabeth A. Ritchie in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Yujuan Sun Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada

Search for other papers by Yujuan Sun in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Fuqing Zhang The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania

Search for other papers by Fuqing Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Open access

Abstract

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing posttransition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed. In particular, some challenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication.

Denotes content that is immediately available upon publication as open access.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Clark Evans, evans36@uwm.edu

This article has a companion article which can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1

Abstract

Extratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, modeling the direct impacts of ET-related wind, waves, and precipitation are noted. Improved understanding of structural evolution throughout the transformation stage of ET fostered in large part by novel aircraft observations collected in several recent ET events is highlighted. Predictive skill for operational and numerical model ET-related forecasts is discussed along with environmental factors influencing posttransition cyclone structure and evolution. Operational ET forecast and analysis practices and challenges are detailed. In particular, some challenges of effective hazard communication for the evolving threats posed by a tropical cyclone during and after transition are introduced. This review concludes with recommendations for future work to further improve understanding, forecasts, and hazard communication.

Denotes content that is immediately available upon publication as open access.

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Clark Evans, evans36@uwm.edu

This article has a companion artic