A SUGGESTED TECHNIQUE FOR QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING

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  • 1 Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, New York University
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Abstract

The theory and computation of integrated water vapor transport vectors are described and it is shown how the synoptic analysis of these vectors may be used for quantitative precipitation forecasting. An example of the vector field and the precipitation forecast is given. Although the prognostic formula does not give correct point values of the precipitation, reasonably good agreement is found between the distributions of forecast and observed precipitation. The technique is probably too laborious for daily forecasting routine but may be useful in the evaluation of rainmaking experiments.

Abstract

The theory and computation of integrated water vapor transport vectors are described and it is shown how the synoptic analysis of these vectors may be used for quantitative precipitation forecasting. An example of the vector field and the precipitation forecast is given. Although the prognostic formula does not give correct point values of the precipitation, reasonably good agreement is found between the distributions of forecast and observed precipitation. The technique is probably too laborious for daily forecasting routine but may be useful in the evaluation of rainmaking experiments.

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