AN ANALYSIS OF BAROTROPIC FORECAST ERRORS IN CASES OF RAPID SEA LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS

DAVID B. SPIEGLER New York University, New York, N.Y. 2

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Abstract

The 24-hour 500-mb. barotropic forecasts prepared by the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) have been investigated in 30 cases of rapid sea level cyclogenesis. Composite error maps are presented for the region of cyclogenesis. The 500-mb. errors are found to be significantly larger when the solenoidal field at that level is strong than when it is weak.

Abstract

The 24-hour 500-mb. barotropic forecasts prepared by the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) have been investigated in 30 cases of rapid sea level cyclogenesis. Composite error maps are presented for the region of cyclogenesis. The 500-mb. errors are found to be significantly larger when the solenoidal field at that level is strong than when it is weak.

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