FORECAST PROBLEMS DURING THE LIFE CYCLE OF A CUT-OFF LOW, JANUARY 20–29, 1962

ROBERT B. ROSS National Meteorological Center, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C.

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HAROLD M. HESS National Meteorological Center, U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C.

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Abstract

The life cycle of a cut-off Low at the 500-mb. level in the southwestern United States, January 20–29, 1962, is examined. The forecast problem is analyzed with the numerical barotropic predictions used as the first approximation. The effects of the mountains on the forecasts are discussed. The relative success of modifications to the barotropic forecasts, along with reasons for these modifications, is shown. Some aspects of the surface developments with respect to events at the 500-mb. level are examined.

Abstract

The life cycle of a cut-off Low at the 500-mb. level in the southwestern United States, January 20–29, 1962, is examined. The forecast problem is analyzed with the numerical barotropic predictions used as the first approximation. The effects of the mountains on the forecasts are discussed. The relative success of modifications to the barotropic forecasts, along with reasons for these modifications, is shown. Some aspects of the surface developments with respect to events at the 500-mb. level are examined.

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