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SOME ATTEMPTS TO SIMULATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BY NUMERICAL METHODS

STANLEY L. ROSENTHALNational Hurricane Research Project, U.S. Weather Bureau, Miami, Fla.

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Abstract

The results of a series of numerical experiments which were intended to simulate the warming and developing stages of hurricane formation are discussed. In the experiments, an initially weak cyclone develops into an intense vortex. However, the deepening proceeds too rapidly and meridional circulations which are too intense develop. The inclusion of ground friction and vertical mixing leads to solutions which are even less acceptable. Lateral mixing slows the development but only provides a temporary delay in the generation of an unacceptably intense meridional circulation.

Abstract

The results of a series of numerical experiments which were intended to simulate the warming and developing stages of hurricane formation are discussed. In the experiments, an initially weak cyclone develops into an intense vortex. However, the deepening proceeds too rapidly and meridional circulations which are too intense develop. The inclusion of ground friction and vertical mixing leads to solutions which are even less acceptable. Lateral mixing slows the development but only provides a temporary delay in the generation of an unacceptably intense meridional circulation.

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