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THE PREDICTION OF SURGES IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE MICHIGAN

Part III. The Operational Basis for Prediction

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  • 1 U.S. Weather Bureau, Chicago, Ill. 2
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Abstract

The development of operational surge prediction in southern Lake Michigan is reviewed through the 10-year span starting with the disastrous surge of June 26, 1954 which took several lives in the Chicago area. Particular emphasis is given to the application of the work of others, especially Platzman, to the surge-prediction problem. Considerable detail is given on the surge of August 3, 1960, for which a successful prediction was made. This example, with its messages to the public, could serve as a model for future surge predictions. Finally a set of steps is given by which a prediction is made, followed by comments on those items still needing research before we can evaluate all parameters for an operational surge prediction.

Abstract

The development of operational surge prediction in southern Lake Michigan is reviewed through the 10-year span starting with the disastrous surge of June 26, 1954 which took several lives in the Chicago area. Particular emphasis is given to the application of the work of others, especially Platzman, to the surge-prediction problem. Considerable detail is given on the surge of August 3, 1960, for which a successful prediction was made. This example, with its messages to the public, could serve as a model for future surge predictions. Finally a set of steps is given by which a prediction is made, followed by comments on those items still needing research before we can evaluate all parameters for an operational surge prediction.

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