A REVISED TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING HURRICANE MOVEMENT BY STATISTICAL METHODS

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  • 1 National Hurricane Research Laboratory
  • 2 National Hurricane Center, ESSA, Miami, Fla.
  • 3 National Hurricane Research Laboratory
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Abstract

The NHC-64 statistical equations for predicting the movement of hurricanes have been in operational use for 4 yr. These equations have continued to perform well. Following the 1966 hurricane season, however, it was apparent that the equations could be improved. A new forecast technique, based on additional data and additional predictors, has been derived. Tests on independent data for 1966 and on an operational basis during 1967 indicate that the 1967 method is slightly superior to NHC-64.

Abstract

The NHC-64 statistical equations for predicting the movement of hurricanes have been in operational use for 4 yr. These equations have continued to perform well. Following the 1966 hurricane season, however, it was apparent that the equations could be improved. A new forecast technique, based on additional data and additional predictors, has been derived. Tests on independent data for 1966 and on an operational basis during 1967 indicate that the 1967 method is slightly superior to NHC-64.

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