Many thanks to Bert Semtner and Bob Chervin who made their model results readily available and to Tony Craig and Robin Tokmakian who helped in extracting and interpreting the data. This study benefited from discussions with Kathie Kelly, Mike McCartney, John Marshall, John Toole, Terry Joyce, and Russ Davis. Trevor McDougall and several anonymous reviewers made invaluable suggestions, which have helped to shape the analysis and presentation. Joe LaCasce, Stefan Llewellyn Smith, and Lynne Talley also provided useful comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. This work was supported by National Aeronautics and Space Administration Contract NAGW-1666 and by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award NA47GP0188 to the Lamont/Scripps Consortium for Climate Research.
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