Part of this research was carried out while Jay McCreary was a faculty member at the Nova Southeastern University Oceanographic Center and while Richard Kleeman was at the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre. Programming assistance was provided by Elena Boguslavsky, who also helped evaluate the integral in section 5, and by Kevin Kohler. We thank Zhengyu Liu and an anonymous reviewer for thoughtful comments. This research was supported by the GOALS program through NOAA Grant NA76GP0353, and by the Frontier Research System for Global Change through its sponsorship of the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC).
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