1. Introduction
Bryden and Nurser (2003) have argued that turbulence in deep passages accounts for a significant portion of the total abyssal mixing in the Atlantic Ocean. Their estimates are based on the observed changes in density experienced when Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) enters a deep passage and is locally mixed as a result of the instability, overturning, and turbulence that typically accompany strong hydraulic transitions. They trace the flow of AABW through several major passages, including the Vema Channel and Romanche Fracture Zone, estimate the turbulent buoyancy fluxes for each, and compare the sum to the total buoyancy flux required to close the abyssal mass budget. By their measure, mixing in the overflows tends to dominate mixing in the deep basins.
The abyssal Pacific was not included in the discussion by Bryden and Nurser (2003), perhaps because the corresponding deep passages are not as well observed as those in the Atlantic. However, it is well known that the North Pacific Ocean abyssal circulation is fed primarily by Antarctic-origin Bottom Water that has made its way northward from the Southern Ocean and passed through the Samoan Passage and nearby passages (Fig. 1) around 7°–12°S (Reid and Lonsdale 1974). As a component of observations made along World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) line P31, Roemmich et al. (1996) and Rudnick (1997) deployed a line of current meters across the entrance of the Samoan Passage and calculated a 17-month average northward volume transport of 6.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). This value can be compared with hydrographic estimates of 6.0 Sv by Taft et al. (1991) based on the Transport of Equatorial Waters (TEW) expedition, and with Freeland’s (2001) value of 8.4 Sv based on WOCE line P31N data. Freeland (2001) and Whitehead (2005) also made estimates (5.7 and 7.1 Sv, respectively) using hydraulic control formulas. A recent field campaign (Alford et al. 2013; Voet et al. 2015, 2016) included a 15-month record from moored current meters across the entrance, resulting in a volume transport estimate of 5.4 Sv (Voet et al. 2016). In summary, hydrographic and hydraulic flux estimates lie reasonably close to the time-average estimates of 6.0 Sv (Roemmich et al. 1996) and 5.4 Sv (Voet et al. 2016) made from direct current meter measurements. It is notable that fluctuations in the instantaneous volume transport ranging from 1–2 to over 10 Sv, much of it due to tidal variability, were observed in the two current meter deployments (Roemmich et al. 1996; Rudnick 1997; Voet et al. 2016).
There is also evidence that a significant portion of the total northward volume transport bypasses the Samoan Passage and flows around the east side of the Manihiki Plateau (Fig. 1). Based on the hydrographic data collected as part of WOCE Section P31 (Talley 2007), Roemmich et al. (1996) noted that the isopycnals in the Penrhyn basin slope up in the westward direction along the eastern flank of the Manihiki Plateau, suggesting the presence of a deep western boundary current. They estimated a northward transport of 2.8 Sv. Previous to this estimate, Taft et al. (1991) had examined hydrographic data in the western portion of the Penrhyn basin, collected as part of the TEW cruise. They did not present a transport estimate, noting only that the water properties lack evidence of a high-latitude source. However, Roemmich et al. (1996) reexamined the TEW data and calculated a northward transport of 2.3 Sv. (They also noted that the section spacing was larger than for the P31 data.) The time dependence present in the Samoan Passage may also be present in any bypass flow, so that a calculation based on a single hydrographic section may depend on when the section was taken.
Alford et al. (2013) show that the Samoan Passage contains a complex of sills and passages, with hydraulically controlled overflows, overturns, hydraulic jumps, and highly elevated levels of energy dissipation. Their observations suggest that AABW with potential temperature less than 0.7°C is mixed away. In addition, the primary signature of North Atlantic Deep Water, a local salinity maximum above the bottom layer of Antarctic Bottom Water (Reid and Lynn 1971), is also mixed away within the passage. Little is known about mixing to the east of the Manihiki Plateau, but the steeply sloping isotherms along the eastern boundary of the plateau in WOCE Section P31 (Fig. 3) suggest that the width (≅300 km) of the deep western boundary current is significantly larger than the typical width (<50 km) of the individual channels that contain the deep transport in the Samoan Passage. This and the lack of constraining channel walls suggest that the branch of the northward flow lying to the east of the Manihiki Plateau is broader and slower, and therefore less prone to the intense vertical mixing that can occur when a stratified fluid spills over a sill. It is certainly possible for hydraulic transitions to occur within geostrophic boundary currents, especially where capes, headlands, and offshore ridges are present (e.g., Dale and Barth 2001) and there are several ridges that protrude from the northeast corner of the Manihiki Plateau (Fig. 1). However, evidence from a numerical simulation, described later in this manuscript, suggests that the near bottom flow is steered around, and not over them. Mixing due to water spilling over these ridges, either directly or driven by tides (as in Musgrave et al. 2016) would tend to be weakened by the topographic steering.
Other evidence for mixing and transport east of the Manihiki Plateau appears to be inconclusive. There are no known abyssal microstructure measurements in the Penrhyn basin. WOCE Section P31 does not reveal the presence of a salinity maximum corresponding to NADW, either within the Samoan Passage or to the east of the Manihiki Plateau. Reid and Lonsdale (1974) report on three CTD casts taken east of the Manihiki Plateau as part of the Styx Expedition. Some current meter measurements were made just above the bottom. No measurements revealed bottom potential temperatures colder than 0.82°C, leading the authors to comment on the apparent lack of northward transport in the western Penrhyn basin. However, the near bottom velocity at one of the locations was less than 1 cm s−1 and was not measured at the other two locations, so it is not clear that any of the stations were positioned in the path of the deep western boundary current.
The mixing that occurs along the east Manihiki branch of the northward flow is likely to be quite different, and perhaps of lower intensity, than what is experienced in the Samoan Passage. Fluid parcels in the east branch may also experience longer transit times and distances compared with parcels that pass directly through the Samoan Passage. For this reason it is relevant to understand the factors that determine the division of volume flux between this branch and the hydraulically controlled Samoan Passage branch. Apart from mixing, it is of general interest to understand why abyssal flows follow certain pathways when multiple choices are possible. We will attempt to gain insight into these questions by examining vorticity and circulation balances as expressed in an extension of the “island rule” (Godfrey 1989) to an abyssal layer. The purpose is to predict the northward transport to the east of the Manihiki Plateau and, more importantly, identify the key factors that set the volume transport.
This is not the first application of circulation integrals in pursuit of a better understanding of deep circulation (e.g., Pedlosky et al. 2011). However, the presence in the Samoan Passage of hydraulic processes, with enhanced mixing and bottom drag, along with the proximity of the equator, force us to contend with some novel and interesting features. We will detail these in section 2 and then apply the result to Samoan Passage/Manihiki geography (section 3), drawing upon data described in Alford et al. (2013) and Voet et al. (2015, 2016). Section 4 will revisit the topic of abyssal mixing in light of the foregoing results. We will argue that the Samoan Passage plays a dominant role in the abyssal buoyancy flux budget for the North Pacific and we will offer some thoughts on how the existence of the Manihiki bypass flow enters this narrative, and why it might be important in a warming abyss.
2. Island rule formulation
a. 1.5-layer approximation and dynamics
For simplicity and tractability, we will assume that the bulk of the deep-water flow can be modeled as a single, homogeneous layer that is overlain by an inactive region with slightly lower density. There are a number of reasonable choices for the interface, but observations reported in Voet et al. (2015, their Fig. 4) strongly suggest the 1°C potential temperature surface as the best overall choice. In particular, velocity profiles from a lowered ADCP show that the velocity diminishes rapidly to zero as one passes upward across the 1°C surface. The thickness of the underlying, active layer is denoted by d(x, y, t), the corresponding reduced gravity by g′, and the motion of the layer is governed by the shallow water equations with the Coriolis parameter f(y). (Calculation of the numerical value of g′ in such a model is often problematic, but our particular formulation of the problem will not require a numerical value.) We begin by considering a domain with simplified geometry (Fig. 2), bounded to the west by a straight wall and with a rectangular island or plateau. Far to the east the layer depth vanishes along a grounding contour. The strait that separates the western boundary and plateau contains at least one sill with an overflow and an energy dissipating hydraulic jump (red patch).
The inclusion of the term δB in (2) represents an important departure from other forms of the island rule, where the integration contour C is closed and the contribution from the derivative of the Bernoulli function is nil after integration around C. The danger in using this approach here is illustrated by considering a hydraulic jump in a single-layer, homogeneous flow with a free surface and no bottom drag. The jump is very abrupt and occurs over a downstream distance on the order of the fluid depth. As pointed out by Pratt and Whitehead (2008, section 1.6b) integration of (1) from a point slightly upstream to a point slightly downstream of the jump would lead to the conclusion that δB = 0, whereas it is well known that the jump contains a high level of internal dissipation. The pitfall comes from integration of an equation across a zone in which the equation does not apply, and it is for this reason that we avoid carrying the integration through the jump. A desirable advance would be a parameterization of δB in terms of upstream conditions, something that is possible in the homogeneous case. Thorpe (2010) and Thorpe and Li (2014) have made progress on this problem in connection with jumps in stratified fluids, and Thorpe et al. (2018) have shown that the results apply to a particular segment of the Samoan Passage flow where strong overturns are observed. However, strong dissipation, overturns, and mixing occur in other parts of the Samoan Passage and it is not clear how to parameterize all of these. We will instead rely on direct measurements of dissipation to evaluate δB.
b. The integration contour
Let us now consider how the shape of the contour s1 < s < s2 is determined. Since the flow is deep and is expected to have low Rossby number, we will assume that qS is dominated by the contribution from f/d. To visualize the layer thickness (d) field, consider WOCE Section P31 (Fig. 3), which extends roughly east to west, and cuts across the Penrhyn basin and Samoan Passage. The θ = 1.0°C surface lies at about 4000-m depth in the Samoan Passage (near 170°W) and extends across the Penrhyn basin to the east of the Manihiki Plateau, grounding at the eastern slope near 152°W. This grounding location marks the edge (d = 0) of the lower layer and is indicated by a solid line at the eastern edge in Fig. 2. The regional location of the grounding line can be seen in a plot of the depth of the 1°C surface (Fig. 4). Water colder than 1°C, which corresponds to our model layer, forms a cold tongue that extends northward from the Southern Ocean, through the Samoan Passage and around the east side of the Manihiki plateau, crossing the equator and terminating in the tropical North Pacific. The grounding contour corresponds to the eastern edge of this tongue, also shown in a magnified view in Fig. 5.
Next consider a contour of constant f/d that begins at the southeast corner (s = s1) of the plateau in Fig. 2. As one moves eastward, away from this corner, d decreases and thus one must move toward the equator in order to maintain a constant value of f/d, which for our Southern Hemisphere example is negative. Note also that f/d tends to −∞ at the grounding edge of the domain to the east, and approaches zero at the equator, so the intersection of the equator and the grounding contour is a singular point for the f/d field. Since all values in the range −∞ < f/d < 0 occur in its near neighborhood, the intersection acts as an accumulation point for f/d contours with negative values. If this is true as well for the constant f/d segment that begins at the northeast corner (s = s3) of the plateau, then the contours will meet at the accumulation point and the combined segments forming the portion of C to the east of the island will look something like the horn-shaped contour (s1, s2, s3) in Fig. 2.
c. Remarks on the singularity in the f/d field
The apparent singularity at the equator only exists to the extent that the approximation
It should be noted that the apparent equatorial singularity is a feature that is avoided in most other layer-based island rule formulations by imposition of vertical walls at eastern boundaries. For example, the zonal sections of C in Godfrey’s (1989) original work terminate at the South American coast. Had Godfrey chosen to confront the topographic effects of the continental slope and shelf, he might have allowed his southern contour to bend equatorward in order to maintain constant f/d, similar to what we have done. This southern contour would have then met the northern segment of the contour (already located close to the equator). This alteration in the integration path would have affected only a small portion of the total length, so the transport prediction would likely not have changed much.
Although the singularity in the f/d field is in some sense removable, it functions as an important organizing feature for the integration contour west of the plateau. The two constant f/d segments originating at the northern and southern tips of the plateau are attracted by the singularity and are therefore drawn close to each other as the equator is approached, allowing one to form a closed contour by introducing the shortcut segment. Even if we knew the relative vorticity field and could thereby trace the contours right to the equator, we would still need to join them somehow.
d. The integral constraint
It is possible, of course, that the average value of we over AE is <0. As pointed out by Ferrari et al. (2016), downwelling can occur over a segment of the abyssal water column where the turbulent buoyancy flux increases toward the bottom. Measurements by microstructure profilers in the abyssal Penrhyn basin could inform this issue, but we know of no such measurements.
3. Application to Manihiki Plateau
a. Integration contour
For the traditional island rule, an important consideration in choosing the integration contour C is avoidance of the eastern boundary of the island. This boundary may support a western boundary layer, and the corresponding high levels of friction will contribute to the circulation integral in ways that are significant and difficult to estimate. This is why Godfrey (1989) chose to route C around the western side of the island, which cannot support a western boundary layer. This motivation is less relevant in the present case, since friction and dissipation are potentially significant on both the east and west sides of the Manihiki Plateau. In our case the choice is dictated by the fact that the dissipation and velocity have been directly measured along the west side, within the Samoan Passage.
Another consideration that figures in the selection of C is that the thickness of our hypothetical layer (all water colder than 1°C) vanishes around the edge of the Manihiki Plateau. In textbook examples of the island rule, the plateau would have vertical sidewalls, and one would choose that portion of C that wraps around the western side of the plateau to lie along the vertical walls, this in order to avoid horizontal flow across C there. In the present case, the same outcome could be accomplished, in principle, by locating the western portion of C to coincide with the contour along which the 1°C surface grounds, precluding flow across C there. However, the quadratic drag term in our momentum equation, which contains a factor of 1/d, would then be difficult to estimate. As a compromise, we locate C slightly outside of the grounding contour, where that d is nonzero.
With these considerations in mind, we have mapped out a range of reasonable integration contours, each pinned to different ‘corners’ of the Manihiki Plateau. One such contour appears in Fig. 5.
b. Diapycnal upwelling across the interface
The first term in the numerator on the right-hand side of (6) is the area integral of the diapycnal velocity across the 1°C surface. This is the analog to the wind stress term in the traditional island rule, equivalent to the integral of the wind stress curl over an area. One means of estimating the diapycnal velocity would be to assume a one-dimensional balance in the buoyancy equation with a turbulent diffusivity inferred from microstructure measurements. However, we have not been able to identify any microstructure observations in the region east of Manihiki and within the Penrhyn basin. Instead we estimate a diapycnal velocity for the 1°C surface as a whole north of the equator by dividing its surface area (Fig. 4) by the 9.9 Sv of total transport estimated by Roemmich et al. (1996) as approaching the equator from the south. This yields a value we = 4.4 × 10−5 cm s−1, which, when integrated over the wetted area enclosed by the contour shown in Fig. 5, yields 0.87 Sv. Other reasonable choices for the contour give values up to 0.99 Sv. The corresponding term in (6) gives contributions in the range from −0.14 to −0.24 Sv toward QN. The above value of we is an order of magnitude greater than the average value of deduced from microstructure and fine structures measurements within 10° of the equator (see Kunze et al. 2006). We therefore treat our value as an upper bound, with a lower bound of zero, noting that the Penrhyn basin has relatively smooth topography and may therefore have an average we that is less than the average value of the area covered by the 1°C isotherm north of 10°S. A final caveat is that, as discussed above, there could be net downwelling over the Penrhyn basin, but there is nothing that would permit us to quantify this.
This weak southward flow is consistent with the idea that an upward diapycnal velocity across the 1°C interface leads to vortex stretching in the fluid below, and that in the absence of relative vorticity this must cause fluid move southward to preserve potential vorticity, the same idea that underlies the Stommel and Arons (1960) model of interior abyssal circulation. However, this analogy is imperfect since the island rule prediction of Qs includes the transport in any western boundary layer on the east coast of the island: a contribution not contemplated within the Stommel–Arons framework. In any case, the island rule predicts southward flow if the dissipation and bottom drag within the Samoan Passage are not accounted for: one of the central conclusions of this work.
c. Dissipation in the Samoan Passage
Alford et al. (2013) report measurements of velocity and turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate ε along the central axis of the main channel of the Samoan Passage (Fig. 6). The topography is complex and there are several deep-water routes, but the main channel lies on the eastern side of the passage. Here there are two major sills, and elevated values of ε and velocity can be seen in their vicinity. Thorpe et al. (2018) argue that the rebound in the isopycnals in the lee of the northern (downstream) sill is a hydraulic jump. This and the region of elevated ε around the other sill occur over stretches of 40–60 km, whereas shallow water theory would represent jumps as discontinuities in the velocity and layer thickness. For this reason, we will choose the beginning (s = 0 in Fig. 2) of the integration contour C to coincide with the upstream end (y = yu in Fig. 6) and the contour end (s = sC) to coincide with the downstream end y = yd. With these choices, C now begins near the upstream end of the Samoan Passage and terminates at the downstream end. In this case, δB in (6) should be interpreted as the total drop in Bernoulli function B from y = yu to y = yd, and the bottom drag term (final term in numerator) is to be calculated only over C itself and not in the gap.
To estimate the drop δB from yu to yd, we consider a 2D control area A (outlined in green in Fig. 6) that includes the region over which ε is measured. We make several strong assumptions: first, that the flow within is 2D and second, that the measured values are representative of 15-month mean values. We also assume that there is only weak motion at the top of the area, which coincides with the 1°C potential temperature contour, and this is largely confirmed by velocity measurements. Both assumptions can be challenged, but we are restricted by the data that exists.
The ability to rigorously estimate the uncertainty in this dissipation average is severely limited by available microstructure data, but there are two lines of reasoning to suggest that it may be no larger than the relative uncertainty in the transport average (i.e., 20% or so, corresponding to a 1-Sv standard deviation on the low-passed transports with an average of 5.4 Sv). First, the section shown in Fig. 6 was occupied over several days, with the microstructure profiles occurring at random tidal phases, thereby effectively averaging out tidal variability to a good degree. Second, our analysis of density overturns in moored profiler time series near several of the sills have shown little direct correlation between transport and dissipation. Dissipation is intermittent but averages are fairly stable. This work is being prepared for a future publication, but it does imply that a dissipation uncertainty estimate based on transport variability would not provide much benefit.
d. Frictional drag around the west side of Manihiki
The Samoan Passage spans only a small part of the total latitude range of the Manihiki Plateau and therefore the integration contour C has a significant length along the western side of the plateau north and south of the passage (Fig. 7). Estimation of the bottom drag along these portions of C is difficult because velocity observations exist only within the Samoan Passage. To establish an estimate of how significant these drag terms could be, we turn to results from a numerical model. The model has 90 vertical levels and a horizontal resolution of 1/48° and computes forward solutions of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm; Marshall et al. 1997). This high-resolution simulation is based on the coarser data-assimilating Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2; Menemenlis et al. 2008) state estimate. A further description and analysis of the model may be found in Rocha et al. (2016a) and Rocha et al. (2016b).
One of the more challenging aspects of the frictional drag estimate is the selection of the route that C takes along the west side of the Manihiki Plateau. In textbook examples, this part of the contour would typically lie along a vertical wall, so that no cross-contour transport would be possible. One would therefore like to choose a contour that is likely to permit the least amount of normal transport. Possibilities include streamlines, isobaths and constant f/d contours. Streamlines are the best choice and are used downstream of the Samoan Passage, where they are smooth and long. The upstream region is more complex and a variety of choices are used (Fig. 7) as integration contours.
4. Estimation of the transport east of Manihiki
Parameter values.
Here QI is the contribution to the total flux from the interior diapycnal velocity we = 4.4 × 10−5 cm s−1 over the open area AE, here estimated from −0.14 to −0.24 Sv depending on the integration contour. The value of we is regarded as an upper bound and therefore we believe that the actual transport lies in the range from zero to −0.24 Sv. We have also estimated the transport error that arises from continuing the integration contour C all the way to the equatorial singularity. This is done by comparing QI to the value that would occur if the equator were avoided by splicing in a shortcut section, as depicted schematically in Fig. 2. Details of the calculation can be found in appendix A. For the integration contour shown in Fig. 5, which gives QI = −0.24 Sv, the correction due to the shortcut (dashed segment at 4°S) is only −0.0074 Sv and is therefore negligible. For the contour and shortcut used to obtain QI = −0.14 Sv, the correction is 0.02 Sv, resulting in an adjusted transport of −0.12 Sv, which falls within the uncertainty range already established.
Parameter Qε is the contribution from the internal kinetic energy dissipation in the Samoan Passage. We integrated the values of ρε measured within the area A, and shown in Fig. 6, and added the estimate from the bottom 50 m of the water column (area A−) as described in appendix B. The mass flux M per unit width was estimated using the same data. The range of estimates (0.58–1.64 Sv) for Qε largely comes from uncertainty in our estimate of ε in regions where no measurements were made. Finally, QC is the contribution from the bottom drag integrated around those portions of the contour C that wrap around the western side of the Manihiki Plateau. We used a drag coefficient ranging from 10−3 to 3 × 10−3 based on estimates of Cd from direct measurements of turbulence in shallow water. Measured values span from 10−3 to 10−2 (Trowbridge and Lentz 2018) based on the strength of the wave-induced velocity. For our abyssal flow, in which the wave-induced velocity is expected to be small, we chose values at the lower end of this range.
5. Relationship to mixing in the abyssal Pacific
Consistent with the findings of Bryden and Nurser (2003) for the deep Atlantic Ocean, the mixing in the Samoan Passage appears to be a significant factor in the overall picture. The partitioning of flow between the Samoan Passage and the Penrhyn basin then becomes a factor in the overall narrative of abyssal mixing and how the distribution of mixing might change in a warming abyss.
6. Discussion
It is apparent that the abyssal form of the island rule developed in this work is not a practical tool for precise predictions of transports. Unlike the traditional form for wind driven flow, which requires only wind stress measurements, the present form requires a range of problematic information, including diapycnal velocities, dissipation values, and drag coefficients. Nevertheless, the island rule formulation provides a good framework for identification and evaluation of the factors that set the transport to the east of the island. Our formulation identifies turbulent dissipation in the Samoan Passage and to a lesser extent frictional bottom drag on the western side of the Manihiki Plateau as the main ingredients. Without them, the predicted transport to the east of Manihiki would be southward. The predicted transport range of 0.39–2.39 Sv compares with the observed values of 2.3–2.8 Sv (Roemmich et al. 1996), both based on single hydrographic sections and both subject to uncertainty as time means. [The direct measurements of the Samoan Passage transport by Rudnick (1997) and Voet et al. (2016) vary in time from 1–2 to over 10 Sv, and the transport east of Manihiki may undergo relative fluctuations of similar size.]
Our analytical model also presents some elements that are novel from the perspective of geophysical fluid dynamics. One involves the singularity that occurs where the equator intersects with the grounding contour of the layer interface (the 1°C isotherm). This location acts as an accumulation point for f/d contours and therefore exerts a major influence over the shape of the open segments of the integration circuit. The singular nature of this point can probably be resolved through consideration of ageostrophic influences near the equator. In the unapproximated form of the circulation integral, the integration contours ought to lie along an isoline of potential vorticity (f + ζ)/d, approximated f/d in our model. As the equator is approached, f vanishes and the detailed shape of the contour becomes strongly influenced by the relative vorticity ζ. A tacit assumption in our calculations is that the region over which relative vorticity is important is too small to have much effect on the total value of the integrals. In addition, the proximity of the integration circuits to the equator means that the predicted transport QS might contain zonal flow running along the equator. However, since the layer depth d becomes small in the vicinity of the accumulation point, the actual contribution to QS is arguably small as well. A third aspect that is worth exploring is the extent to which the model applies in the presence of time dependence. It is possible to generalize the formulation by including time derivatives [see Eq. (2)], but the integration contour C must then be allowed to change with time. Of course, the shallow-water model has its own set of limitations, none the least of which is the lack of interaction with the overlying fluid. Future plans call for further exploration of all of these issues within the context of numerical simulations.
In addition to implications for mixing, the partitioning of flow between the Samoan Passage and the route east of Manihiki raises some intriguing questions about dynamics. One concerns the presence of hydraulic control in the Samoan Passage, but most likely not to the east of Manihiki: how is this possible? Normally, hydraulic control implies an influence over the flow far upstream. In standard rotating hydraulic models (e.g., Whitehead et al. 1974; Gill 1977; Pratt and Whitehead 2008) the upstream influence is exerted by an edge wave that is excited at the controlling sill any time there is a temporal change in the approach flow (Pratt and Chechelnitsky 1997). With vertical walls, the edge wave is a Kelvin wave; when the layer depth vanishes, the edge wave becomes a frontal wave (Stern 1980). In either case an upstream-propagating, Southern Hemisphere edge wave excited at one of the sills in the Samoan Passage would not propagate far upstream but would instead attempt to circle the Manihiki Plateau in a counterclockwise direction and possibly reenter the passage from the north. The chain of events that occurs is perhaps best simulated in a model, but the overall implication is that the upstream influence of the sills in the Samoan Passage primarily involves control over the partitioning of the flow.
Although the hydraulics and upstream influence may act in novel ways, these processes do not explicitly factor into our particular island rule formulation. Hydraulic control leads to spilling, supercritical flows that tend to experience shear instabilities, jumps, and high dissipation regimes, so there is an implicit connection with the dissipation term δB in the island rule. A different approach may be required to make the connection with hydraulic control explicit.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants OCE-1029268, OCE-1029483, OCE-1657264, OCE-1657870, OCE-1658027, and OCE-1657795. We thank the captain, crew, and engineers at APL/UW for their hard work and skill.
APPENDIX A
QS Estimate Using Modified Northern Contour
APPENDIX B
Estimation of δB
The above approach ignores the effects of advection of B across the bottom boundary of the area A, an assumption that is justified if this boundary coincides with streamlines of the flow, or nearly so. This assumption could break down where abrupt horizontal changes and strong vertical motion occur in the vicinity of the bottom. Dissipation in these hot spots is unaccounted for in our formulation.
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