1. Introduction
Floods are a major cause of disasters in many communities, and they have been associated with loss of livelihoods, morbidity, and fatalities (French et al. 1983; Price and Vojinovic 2008; FitzGerald et al. 2010; Tingsanchali 2012; Oladokun and Proverbs 2016; Ahmad and Ma 2020; Munawar 2020; Lin et al. 2020). Some of the existing studies (e.g., Jonkman and Kelman 2005; Jonkman and Vrijling 2008; Liu et al. 2021) showed that fatalities (occurrence of deaths by disasters) due to flood may occur due to asphyxiation, electrocution, and physical trauma, and the magnitude of fatality may be related to the possibilities of early warning and time of intervention for evacuation. In general, many of the studies identified “flood hazards” (also known as flood actions; Jonkman and Kelman 2005) as personality consequences (such as force of runoff that may drown victims, contaminated water, or blockages that may be caused by aggregated debris) that can cause death of victims of floods. Hazard is defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s glossary of terms (IPCC 2012) as the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources.
Flood fatalities have been associated with factors of vulnerability (the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected; IPCC 2012), which often include certain socioeconomic, demographic, and behavioral factors, such as location of settlement relative to water bodies (in terms of elevation), socioeconomic status of affected populations (Jonkman and Vrijling 2008), and flood duration (see also Liu et al. 2021). Managing flood disasters and reducing attendant fatalities have been linked to both location-specific structural (engineering) and nonstructural (such as improved planning and early warning systems) approaches (Price and Vojinovic 2008; Rothkrantz 2016; Arepalli et al. 2019).
Flood disasters and fatalities have amassed research interests across the world (Coates 1999; Ashley and Ashley 2008; Singh and Kumar 2013; Sharif et al. 2012, 2015; Paul and Mahmood 2016; Diakakis and Deligiannakis 2017; Terti et al. 2017; Petrucci et al. 2019; Špitalar et al. 2020; Han and Sharif 2020). Research interests in flood problems have soared, probably due to reported increased flood-associated threats and losses that are considered higher than those of any other natural disasters (Munawar 2020). There is also cause for greater concern about an increase in urbanization-induced flood risks, particularly in coastal areas and river basins (Ologunorisa 2004; Odufuwa et al. 2012; Li et al. 2016; Adeaga et al. 2020; Okafor 2020; Ologunorisa et al. 2022; Onanuga et al. 2022), along with the consequences of extreme climatic conditions and climate change (Padi et al. 2011; Hirabayashi et al. 2013; Idowu et al. 2022). It has been explained in previous studies (e.g., Eludoyin et al. 2007; Ologunorisa et al. 2021) that a flood disaster may be triggered by a natural or an anthropogenic phenomenon, and as such approaches to its control or management may vary. When floods are attributed to climatic variability, extreme or climate change, it makes sense to relate the problem of flooding to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 (that urges action to combat climate changes and its impacts). Likewise, the SDG 17 projects the need for global partnership for sustainable development and emphasizes the importance of access to science, technology, and innovation (Bernstein 2017).
Studies across developing countries, especially Africa, have revealed the peculiarity in the management and response to flood (Mustafa and Wrathall 2011; Oshodi 2013; Ochege et al. 2016; Adeaga et al. 2020), especially with cases of avoidable deaths, poor or lack of management plans, and bottlenecks with record keeping. Di Baldassarre et al. (2010) (also Tretkoff 2011), despite importantly stressing the vulnerability of the African region to flood fatalities, only projected fatality from discharge data from major rivers in Africa. The period of 1950–2019 was associated with 27 000 flood-related fatalities in Africa (Tramblay et al. 2020) and were primarily linked with climate extreme (particularly extreme precipitation associated with thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems in West Africa and changes in the Namibia low-level jet in southern Africa). However, studies have shown that apart from climate and streamflow or river discharge, urban growth, increase in paved surfaces, and planning and sanitation regulations and the nature of their implementation, as well as people’s socioeconomic status, are the main factors that can predict flood vulnerability and fatalities in Africa (Adger et al. 2003; Douglas et al. 2008; Cirella and Iyalomhe 2018). According to Adger et al. (2003), many low-income populations live in areas at risk of flooding in large cities in Africa, and these are substantially areas with relatively higher records of fatalities than the uplands. In addition, results of focus group discussions conducted by Douglas et al. (2008) over large cities across Africa (Lagos, Nigeria; Accra, Ghana; Maputo, Mozambique; and Nairobi, Kenya) suggested that residents link flood disasters to problems with drainage systems, waste disposal approaches, urban planning, and planning policy implementation problems. Poor response time to distress calls, lack of or inadequate disaster response facilities, and poor warning systems are associated factors that increase flood fatalities in this part of the world (Douglas et al. 2008; Abass 2022). In general, determination of flood fatalities in Africa is better hypothesized as a complex interplay of related factors, particularly climate, rapid and unplanned urban growth, poor waste management culture, and institutional ineptitude (Abass 2022) rather than a precipitation–stream discharge relationship that has been expressed by most studies (e.g., Kundzewicz and Schellnhuber 2004; Di Baldassarre et al. 2010; Tramblay et al. 2020).
Research problem
Real stories of the fatalities in many of the African countries, especially Nigeria, have remained unknown, probably because of poor access to guided and trustworthy information about the region. Newspapers often provide information on disasters and fatalities; these are largely unverified, and values are largely under- or overreported, especially in largely politicized countries for some reasons. For example, Owusu-Ansah (2016) indicated that media often headline “flooded urban landscapes along with emergency response teams doling out relief items to the victims,” but such headlines fade after few days, even though fatalities may occur after the first few days of a disaster. In addition, Omodanisi et al. (2015) noted that victims of a disaster after the first few days (of the disaster) are usually unknown due to poor record infrastructure; subsequently casting doubts on dependence on media record for decision-making process. In addition, often-used records of the Emergency Disasters Database and Dartmouth Flood Observatory, among other dedicated databases for flood-related records, are less dependable for many developing countries with records of corruption and poor data-archiving system. Wright et al. (2007) in a study of forest fires across selected parts of the world argued that poverty and corruption compromise data, especially in countries that are known for civil and political infringements. Publication briefs by agencies that are responsible for disaster management, especially the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Nigerian Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) are also often poorly distributed and usually inaccessible for many users. With respect to discussion on flood fatalities, Nigeria, with about 214 million humans distributed over its 923 800 km2 landmass (14% of West Africa; Eludoyin et al. 2014; Nigerian Population Commission 2020) was suggested to experience a relatively nonsignificant fatality record by Hu et al. (2018). The scanty information on Nigeria in a global assessment of fatalities by Hu et al. (2018) suggested the need for improved records on flood disasters for the country (see also Diakakis et al. 2013; Lee and Vink 2015; van Berchum et al. 2020).
The present study is the first known attempt to construct a database of fatalities associated with floods in Nigeria. The data are examined spatially so that regions of Nigeria that are most vulnerable to flood fatalities may be defined. Existing studies on flood events and their effects in Nigeria have generally been scattered across settlements as well as specific flood scenarios without specific details on fatalities (e.g., Ologunorisa and Tersoo 2006; Adeoye et al. 2009; Adelekan 2011; Amangabra and Obenade 2015; Egbinola et al. 2017; Adelekan 2016; Adelekan and Asiyanbi 2016; Ologunorisa et al. 2021, 2022). The underlying aim is to improve awareness and education of this hazard to emergency managers, forecasters, and ultimately the people of Nigeria. Specific objectives are to examine the spatiotemporal distributions of flood fatalities as well as causes of flood incidence across the geographical regions in Nigeria over the study period. The study is a part of our recently published study on the impact of flood incidences in the Benue valley of Nigeria (Ologunorisa et al. 2022).
2. Materials and methods
a. Study area
Nigeria, the study area, is located in western Africa and has a total area of 923 768 km2. The study area is characterized with over 853 km of coastline stretch and drainages, including Rivers Niger and Benue as well as plains and deltaic regions that make different parts of the country vulnerable to river-flow-induced flood events (Figs. 1a–d). Figure 1a also suggests that many parts of the countries are vulnerable to flooding, particularly in the wet season, although haphazard settlement growth and land-use activities such as waste disposal on stream and drainage channels are exacerbating factors in many regions (Eludoyin et al. 2017; Idowu and Zhou 2019; Dike et al. 2020; Ologunorisa et al. 2021).
Figure 1d shows the different ecological regions in Nigeria. Nigerian climate, within the Köppen climate classification (Dada et al. 2008), includes the tropical wet and tropical wet and dry (tropical rain forest or Af with >2000-mm rainfall totals, and >4000 mm around coastal region; Eludoyin et al. 2014), tropical savanna climate of the Guinea, Sudan, and the Sahel savanna. Figure 1d also shows that the savanna covers most of the central and northern Nigeria (with a well-marked rainy season and a dry season with a single peak, temperature varying from 18.5° to 36.1°C, and an annual rainfall of about 1500 mm with a single rainfall maximum in September).
The classes also include the highland climate or montane climate (Eludoyin and Adelekan 2013; Eludoyin et al. 2014). The elevation map in Fig. 1e reveals that topographical differences across Nigeria, with relatively lowlands in the northwest and near the basins becoming more vulnerable to flood than the highlands around the Jos Plateau in the north-central region.
Human population in Nigeria is now estimated as 214,938,185, with varying densities across the area (Nigerian Population Commission 2020). According to projections from the United Nations, Nigeria is one of the eight countries expected to account collectively for one-half of the total population increase in the world from 2005 to 2050, and by 2100 it will record a population between 505 million and 1.03 billion people (Farrell 2018). In addition, 47.3% of people in Nigeria live in rural areas, while 53.7% live in urban areas; in both conditions, coastal settlements are usually more densely populated than settlements inland, probably because of the advantages of water resources to livelihoods (Kirk-Greene et al. 2020). Given many reported cases of poor adherence to housing regulations, there is often a very weak adherence to set-back-to-river rules and thus increased vulnerability of residents to flood hazards (e.g., Agbola et al. 2012)
b. Data collection and analysis
Data used for this study were sourced from the available monthly 1991–2017 database of flood-related fatalities of NiMet and NEMA flood data for each of the 37 locations (36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja) in Nigeria. The flood data include such information as flood date and the fatality involved in the process of the event. A major problem with the record of the two agencies (NiMet and NEMA) was that while the data from NiMet were required on purchase, with substantial level of bottlenecks those from NEMA were grossly disjointed and inadequately available for most years. The Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) was, however, freely accessible, and records from the archive were largely used for this study. The DFO is a world-based center of the University of Colorado Boulder (https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/), and it hosts records of flood events including severity and fatalities. Consequently, the available (as of the time of the study) 1985–2017 record of the DFO’s account of floods in the Nigeria were accessed. Data extracted from the DFO’ archive were mainly records of all deaths that were directly linked to a specific flood event, and these included deaths due to drowning and/or deaths due to physical trauma within water. In addition, in order to relate the locally inventoried NiMet data with the DFO archive, the records of fatalities for both sources were summed to decades (1985–94 and 1995–2004) and last 12 years (2005–17) for assessment of their total decadal differences and change. The change was determined as the percentage of the ratio of the difference in fatalities in two decades and value at base year. Given that the results of the comparison of the national and DFO record were not exactly the same (in terms of both decadal total and change; Fig. 2), only records from the DFO were analyzed for spatial and temporal patterns. Figure 2 shows that, when flood fatalities for the decades of 1985–94, 1995–2004, and 2005–17 data from NiMet and DFO were compared, the percentage change between 1995 and 2004 and 2005 and 2017 slightly decreased (from 66.9% to 64.9%) with NiMet data, whereas it increased with the DFO data (from 34.2% to 67.2%).
In addition, records of flood fatalities in Nigeria were extracted from newspapers (media), occasional briefs from NiMet and NEMA, and literature records to complement the archival data. Terms like “flood,” “Nigeria,” “deaths,” and “fatalities” were associatively searched using Google and Google Scholar sites for 1985–2017. In the expected cases of multiple reportage of same event by newspapers, the most detailed report (i.e., with information on exact location, date, and number of deaths) was analyzed. Records obtained were complementarily used with the archive data and areas of differences and similarities were noted in the results and discussion section.
Fatalities (deaths) per reported flood event were first identified, organized (sorted), and counted by location and date. The frequency of reported flood cases per location was interpolated and mapped for spatial assessment, using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) model (a deterministic model that assumes that closer values are more related than farther values) in ArcGIS software, version 10.4. The spatial interpolation procedure allows a spatial representation of the flood fatalities across all regions of the country. In addition, flood fatalities were ranked in assessing which area or geopolitical zone was more prone to flooding events through the study period. To be able to juxtapose the rainfall record with flood cases for each state (location), the rainfall intensity was stratified into high (>50.1 mm), medium (38.1 mm–50.1 mm), and low (<38.1 mm) rainfall intensities using the range appropriation method described in the literature (see Ologunorisa and Tersoo 2006; Mehdizadeh et al. 2017). The relationship between flood cases and fatalities was determined to assess the efficiency of any flood disaster response over the years using simple linear regression of the two variables (flood cases/occurrences as independent variable and flood fatalities as dependent variable). Also, flood fatalities and number of displaced residents/victims were mapped as either percentage or per thousand of the population of each state.
3. Results and discussion
a. Spatial distribution of flood fatalities
Spatial distribution of flood fatalities across the different geopolitical regions in Nigeria showed that 131 flood cases, resulting in 1491 fatalities, were officially recorded between 1985 and 2017 (Table 1). Table 1 also reveals that 29% of the flood cases were recorded in the northwestern region, resulting in 33% of the fatalities within the study period. The least number of flood cases occurred in the southeastern part of the country. The northwestern region of Nigeria, consisting of Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina, and Kano States, where population density varied between 50 and 600 persons per kilometer squared (refer to Fig. 1b), recorded an average of 13 fatality cases per flood event. The northeastern region, with Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa, and Taraba States, which also recorded the same 13 fatalities per flood, was characterized with lower population density (40–150 persons per kilometer squared). Both northern regions are in the Sudano–Sahelian zones of Nigeria and are characterized by low vegetation and comparative high aridity (relative to that in the southern regions). A report by Kwari et al. (2015) revealed that substantial fatalities in the densely populated areas such as Kano might have occurred due to indirect causes like building collapse. Olubi and Adewolu (2018) reported that the collapse of a school building in Kano resulted in the deaths of 11 pupils during a flood case.
Distribution of flood cases, fatalities, and fatalities-to-flood case ratio across Nigeria (1985–2017).
Whereas it can be difficult to quantify fatalities due to either drowning or collapse of building in the region, as well as other parts of Nigeria, there is evidence to show that more fatalities occurred in settlements around the floodplains (e.g., Ndabula et al. 2012). A record of fatalities within the north-central region by Odita (2021) provided evidence of four fatalities and a case, at Trademore Estate, Abuja, in which a vehicle (a Land Rover model) was swept away by runoff in the flood event of 12–13 September 2021. In the southern part of Nigeria, an average of 11 fatalities per flood event (in southwest) and 8 fatalities per flood event in southeast and south-southern regions were recorded (refer to Table 1). The relatively higher fatalities in the south-southern region may be explained to an extent by the fact that a large amount of the socioeconomic activities of the residents are water related, and this may have made more people vulnerable to flood hazards. Recent research is, however, focused on the vulnerability of the coastal environment to flood hazards, and it is perceived that many of the observations will be able to explain the phenomenon better. In general, Doocy et al. (2013) among others reported relatively higher records of fatalities by drowning in many developing countries, especially in Africa, than developed countries, and the recent records from the World Health Organization have been described as underestimates of real data, probably because Nigeria has a poor record of its own (Mckeever and Hossain 2021).
Many urban areas in southern Nigeria are known to experience flooding in the wet season (e.g., Agada and Nirupama 2015; Louw et al. 2019; Echendu and Georgeou 2021), but there appeared to be fewer cases of fatalities than were obtained in the northern region. While the true explanation of the lower fatalities (despite higher rainfall tendency) in the south may not be well known yet, studies have associated spatial differences in flooding and fatalities to encroachment of river floodplains by settlements, poor adherence to planning rules, including set-back-to-major-river rules, and poor disaster management strategies (Barbier and Thompson 1998; Jeje and Ikeazota 2002). Other factors may include inadequate or lack of life-saving infrastructure and poor response to distress calls (Eludoyin et al. 2007; Omodanisi et al. 2014; Eludoyin et al. 2017).
In specific state-based terms, Fig. 3 shows that Kano and Jigawa (northwest), Adamawa, Gombe, and Borno (northeast), Plateau (north-central), Oyo and Lagos (southwest), Imo (southeast), and Cross River (south-south) States are the 10 most hit by flood fatalities in Nigeria within the study period. Figure 4a, which indicates more (78‰–208‰) fatalities in Borno, Adamawa, Kano, Kaduna, and Zamfara in northern Nigeria and the Cross Rivers and Delta States, suggests links with large rivers in the states. Whereas the Borno–Adamawa axis is vulnerable to discharge from the neighboring Chad basin, the Kaduna–Kano axis is vulnerable to the influence of River Kaduna, while Zamfara is vulnerable to River Zamfara. Delta and Cross River States, which have many riverine communities in the southern region, are vulnerable to rivers in the Niger Delta basins.
In addition, Fig. 4b indicates that more people per thousand population were displaced in Borno, Benue, the Sokoto–Zamfara axis, and Kaduna than other parts of the country. As were revealed in Fig. 1a, most of these settlements were close to a major river. Our in-depth investigation of the flood problem in the Benue trough (Ologunorisa et al. 2022) implicated poor adherence to planning regulations, blockage of drainage channels, and other activities that prevent free water flow in the area as main exacerbating factors of flood disasters in the area. In general, states that record more fatalities and cases of displacements have major rivers. Consequently, fatalities and displacement cases may be linked to increased discharge from those rivers.
The results of the overlayed themes of fatalities and displacements with status of hourly rainfall (i.e., >50.1 mm of rainfall per 24 h and 38.1–50.1 mm rainfall per 24 h) and dam failure within the study period are presented as Fig. 5a (fatalities) and Fig. 5b (displacements). The results revealed that, except for Kano in the northwestern region (refer to Fig. 1c) where dam failure was associated with high record of fatality, high cases of fatality and displacement were associated with rainfall intensity.
Residents of Kano, Yobe, and Adamawa States have suffered from failure of dams within them or in neighboring communities, especially in 1998 and 2012 when breakdown of Baguda Dam near Kano caused 23 fatalities and displaced 200 000 residents (including 18 000 homes and 14 000 farms) in 14 (of 20) local government areas in Kano State. In addition, collapse of Lagdo Dam in Cameroon was linked with 30 fatalities in Kano and Adamawa States in 2012 (Akinbooade 2012). Dams have often failed because of high silting rate and seepage, growth of big trees on the embankment and beside the spillway, and inadequate structural planning that made it difficult to cope with high rainfall intensity in the dam catchment (Lukman et al. 2011; Ezugwu 2013). Fatalities due to urban planning failure, such as blockage of drainage channels, were difficult to separate from the bulk fatalities records, although a number of instances have been recorded in studies (Oguntala and Oguntoyinbo 1982; Adekola and Lamond 2018).
b. Temporal characteristics of flood cases and fatalities
Figure 6a shows there actually were fewer flood cases and corresponding low fatalities in 1982–84, 1996, and 2007–09 when studies have reported the Great Drought in 1982–84 and other shorter and more localized droughts (see Henchiri et al. 2020). In years where flood cases were more numerous, fatalities also appeared to increase, causing a linear relationship. Further study will, however, be required to establish region-by-region or settlement-based analysis for specific areas.
Jonkman and Kelman (2005) explained the need to capture both direct (immediate) flood fatalities in relation to postflood mortality with Bennet’s (1970) observation of 50% increased mortality rates in the flooded part when compared with the nonflooded part of Bristol in a 1968 flood disaster. This may become more important in Nigeria since victims of disasters do not always seek treatment in hospitals for different reasons, including social and economic considerations (Shyngle and Sodipo 1985; Raji et al. 2021). A study on disaster preparedness of selected hospitals in Zaria in northwest Nigeria by Musa-Maliki and Ibrahim (2021) reveals that the tertiary hospitals in the area lack emergency management plans (EMPs), best spaces, and specialist trauma doctors. In addition, Raji et al. (2021) noted that the NEMA in Nigeria often intervenes in disaster management through provision of relief materials, rehabilitation, and resettlement programs, and are limited by legal restriction on their (NEMA) operational mandates, corruption, and limited funding of the agency.
c. Implications of the findings
The lack of an adequate database for flood fatalities in Nigeria has made the DFO archive a very important data source for research on Nigeria. The DFO data are based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) records obtained via satellite. On the other hand, the Nigerian NiMet and NEMA, despite their relevance to flood disasters, do not either have adequate data or do not release them for research, and as such, records of flood fatalities are often the ones provided by media, and these are mostly unverified. The need for more regional-based database that is similar to the Mediterranean Flood Fatalities (MEFF) archive (Petrucci et al. 2019) is important for the different subregions of Africa with information on record identification, time, location, victims’ profile, victim event interaction, and human response (see also Vinet et al. 2019).
Furthermore, results on the geographical spread of fatalities across Nigeria suggested a link between proximity to major rivers and fatalities. While eliminating the vulnerability of communities may not be possible with the nature of available data, it can be inferred that improved planning management and strict adherence to planning regulations and rules in riverine and coastal communities will reduce flood fatalities. Poor education and lack of emergency management plans and infrastructure, as well as poorly monitored urban growth, are identified factors that increased flood vulnerability and fatalities in Africa (Li et al. 2016; Salami et al. 2017).
4. Conclusions
The study, which focused on examining the spatial and temporal patterns of flood fatalities across settlements in Nigeria, sought to explore available datasets from the Nigerian Emergency Management and Nigerian Meteorological Agencies and as well as those from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, Colorado (but the latter two were eventually used, based on availability). The datasets from these sources were complemented with scattered reports from newspapers to achieve the stated objectives. Using a mix of statistical and geographical information analysis approaches, the study showed that most of Nigeria is vulnerable to floods, being a tropical country where climate is characterized by heavy rainfall and small temperature range; problems with poor settlement and land-use monitoring and disaster management plans and dam failure are exacerbating factors. The study also showed that flood-induced fatalities and displacement of settlements occurred at different locations within the country, but the existing records may have likely underreported the records. Analysis of flood frequency–fatality relationships revealed a direct link, suggesting that the documented number of fatalities increased by 4.7% relative to the frequency of flood cases, albeit with spatial differences. The study complemented the results with information from newspapers and some other non-peer-reviewed documents and revealed the need for an improved flood fatality information system for the country. The study concluded that flood fatalities are on the increase, but flood information management is poor, and this is probably the case for many flood-vulnerable countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Poor information management as well as bottlenecks with information sharing are major challenges of research in Nigeria, and they are obvious limitations to this study. The study recommends improved documentation of disasters and associated fatalities as well as disaster information systems in the country, as these will enhance disaster management plans and implementation of relevant Sustainable Development Goals.
Acknowledgments.
The authors acknowledge the Nigerian Meteorological and Emergency Management Agencies as well as Dartmouth Flood Observatory at the University of Colorado Boulder for the records on flood cases and fatalities. The research did not receive funding from any source. The authors also declare that there is no conflict of interest.
Data availability statement.
Parts of the data analyzed in this study are available in the public domain (Dartmouth Flood Observatory; https://colorado.edu/), and the rest are available at the archive of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet). Because of confidentiality agreements, supporting data can only be made available to bona fide researchers subject to a nondisclosure agreement. Details of the data and how to request access are available from NiMet.
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