1. Introduction
A crow makes its nest by collecting tiny sticks of wood in April and May. However, it does not always pick them in the same manner. Sometimes it picks the stick up from its right side; sometimes from directly in front, and sometimes from its left. If the crow picks up the tiny sticks from its right side, rains will come in the early Asar. The picking of tiny sticks from in front by crow means summer rain is to be in the mid-Asar. If the crow holds the stick from its left, rains will fall at the end of the month or in the next month only (L. S. Khatri, born AD 1929).
The elderly person’s experience gives a deep insight into how the behavior of the crow offers pragmatic knowledge on weather forecasting systems in rural settings. Such understanding received from the elderly people to whom the researcher was engaged in conversation was the foundation of this research. However, our aim is not to prepare a list of traditional weather forecasting indicators exist in a farming community, but to understand some fundamental questions. How is the traditional weather forecasting knowledge (TWFK)1 produced? What are the major indicators for foretelling weather by the local farmers? What are the drivers of transforming TWFK and its use today? Is TWFK being impaired in today’s society, and if so, how?
Traditional weather forecasting systems are commonly practiced by agropastoral communities throughout the world. They are using weather forecasting systems as risk-averse strategies to minimize the chance of catastrophic losses of agricultural production (Crane et al. 2010). These systems are rooted in the works and activities of everyday life of local people (Ingold and Kurttila 2000). Such knowledge is often ignored by the western knowledge system (Ingold 2000; Crate and Nuttal 2009), although traditional/indigenous knowledge is still the valuable source for mitigating climatic risks in many rural communities (Roncoli et al. 2003; Nyong et al. 2007; King et al. 2008; Ensor and Berger 2009; Gearheard et al. 2010; Orlove et al. 2010; Poudel 2012; Chand et al. 2014; Nkuba et al. 2020; Gbangou et al. 2021; Martin et al. 2022). Like other parts of the world, traditional knowledge about reading nature’s clues to predict impending weather in Nepal has been gradually weakening due to changes the socioeconomic and environmental contexts. Over the last few decades, climate change has also posed additional challenges to TWFK. Given this, the survival of TWFK, that is, the knowledge acquired from interaction with nature is uncertain.
Scientific interest in the study of traditional ecological knowledge/indigenous knowledge began to be widespread only in the late 1970s and early 1980s (Berkes 2008). Thereafter, a great deal of research has been devoted to the importance of traditional ecological knowledge or indigenous knowledge2 in development (Chambers 1983; Rhoades 1997; Chhetri 1999; Sillitoe and Marzano 2009), resource management and conservation (Ostrom 1990; Chhetri 2008; Jana and Paudel 2010; Stevens 2013; Basnet and Chaudhary 2017; Poudel 2020; Yatru 2021), and recently in climate change perceptions and adaptation (Adger et al. 2009; Sherpa 2014; Macchi et al. 2015). There may be three reasons behind it. First, the numerous aid projects operating in the third world countries including Nepal during the 1970s and 1980s began to focus on the environmental crisis and some of them focused exclusively on forests (Metz 2010); second, there was a growing interest among some scholars in intellectual property rights (Posey 1990; Oli and Dhakal 2008); and third, vulnerability and resilience appear as one of the core focuses of natural disaster studies (Dekens 2007; Tamang et al. 2020). The events have brought traditional/indigenous knowledge in the mainstream of the academic and applied research. However, weather forecasting systems were absent from the early mainstream research into traditional ecological/indigenous knowledge. In the twenty-first century, however, climate change is regarded as a major threat to global society (IPCC 2007; Hulme 2011; Pandit 2017; IPCC 2018). Thereafter, traditional or indigenous weather forecasting knowledge systems have appeared as a subject of inquiry in climate change discourses (Paolisso 2002; Roncoli et al. 2002; Roncoli 2006; Orlove et al. 2010; Iticha and Husen 2019) as well as disaster mitigation (Dekens 2007, 2008; Acharya and Prakash 2019).
Traditional or indigenous weather forecasting methods are important to farming communities around the world that lack, or have limited access to, scientific forecasts (Eakin 1999; Balehegn et al. 2019; Salite 2019). Such communities have developed their knowledge through careful observations of biological, celestial, and climatic indicators in their landscapes to read the weather that is to come (Huntington et al. 2004; Huy and Shaw 2008; Gearheard et al. 2010; Acharya 2011; Chand et al. 2014; Acharya and Prakash 2019; Nkuba et al. 2020; Gbangou et al. 2021). However, the way communities observe, read, and interpret the indicators may differ by place and culture. This is because the knowledge is rooted in local environmental and cultural contexts. It is generally associated with long-settled communities that have strong and uninterrupted ties to their natural environment (Berkes 2008; Orlove et al. 2010). Sometimes, it relies on the human body’s senses such as seeing, hearing, feeling, and even smelling the weather (Roncoli et al. 2009). Hence, Ingold and Kurttila (2000) described it as multisensory. However, it is still poorly understood globally, including in Nepal, even though they are widely distributed and practiced and have a much longer history. A few studies on TWFK have been done in Nepal (Teittinen and Korkeakoski 2004; Dekens 2007, 2008; Lohani 2010). Given this context, this study attempts to explore the traditional reading of nature’s clues to figure out impending weather and the factors that threaten to undermine the production, transmission, and use of this knowledge.
2. Study site and methods
Kirtipur, being a part of the capital city, is known as Kanth, an outskirt area of the Kathmandu Valley (see Fig. 1; Pokharel and Bhandari 2017). Here, subsistence agriculture was carried out by and for domestic enterprises, which was the primary form of productive activity outside the core city (Gray 2008). The adoption of economic liberalization policy by the government in the mid-1980s contributed to the expansion of nonfarm activities across the country (Uprety 2021) including the Kathmandu Valley. The policies created opportunities for the farmers to enter the market economy and diversify their livelihood to nonagricultural sectors. However, in the long term, this has disconnected the farmers from their farmland, land-based livelihood, and landscape, the main locus of TWFK systems. In 2020, we did a survey of 45 households (one person from each household) of which a small number (15%) relied solely on subsistence agriculture, whereas the others had adopted nonfarming occupations for livelihood.
The people of the Kathmandu Valley heavily depended on the arrival of timely monsoon, which is reflected in arts around the rainy seasons, as well as demonstrated festivals and rituals structured around it (Vajracharya 2016). Kirtipur was selected for the study because here access to irrigation canals for watering farmlands was poor, and farmers had to depend on rainwater. Until a few decades ago, access to modern weather forecasting technology was poor. Therefore, the farmers in the village would try to read nature before they started their annual/seasonal farming activities in order to determine what to plant and when. Therefore, a careful reading of nature to learn the impending weather has been a part of their agricultural life that helps them adapt to and avoid weather-related risks. Such knowledge is still acquired, shared, and preserved by the elderly farmers as tacit knowledge. Given this fact, this area was considered a suitable site for a better understanding of the TWFK system and its transformation.
Because of the exploratory character of our study, a purely qualitative method was adopted. The corresponding author (hereinafter CA) had visited the community in 2011 for the first time to understand the farmers’ perceptions on climate change. Thereafter, the CA frequently visited the community and explored and documented TWFK and change. In addition, semistructured interviews (n = 45) and group discussions (n = 2) were conducted in 2020 and 2021, respectively. There were 45 households in the village. We did individual surveys with 45 people (27 men and 18 women) by selecting randomly one person above the age of 16 years from each household. Of the 45, 18 respondents were from the 16–40 age group, 17 respondents from the 41–59 age group, and 10 respondents from the 60+ age group.3 By education background, seven respondents were illiterate, 10 were literate (those who can read and write only but have not attended formal education at all), 20 had completed high school, and 8 were college graduates. The sociodemographic details are given in Table 1.
Sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents.
The individual survey also helped to identify informants who had sound knowledge of weather forecasting and could discuss any lapses or declines in the knowledge. Nine in-depth interviews were conducted with five females (one recommended by respondents and four from surveyed members) and four males (three recommended by respondents and one from male surveyed groups). Similarly, two focus group discussions (FGDs) were held with men and women separately. There were seven participants (three people were surveyed members and four were nonsurveyed members) in the men’s FGD. In the women’s FGD, six women (all surveyed individuals) participated. Interviews and group discussions were done in public places or in the informants’ courtyards or porches. In the field, we observed the landscape (landmarks, hills, plants, and animals’ behaviors) and atmospheric characteristics that the farmers of Kirtipur used to read the upcoming/impending weather in their surroundings. The social and economic activities of the farmers were also observed.
The interviews and FGDs were conducted in Nepali; all quotations in this paper have been translated by the authors. The interviews and FGDs were transcribed and coded manually based on thematic issues, for example, environmental markers (reading meteorological characteristics, atmospheric characteristics, plant behavior, and animal behavior) and nonenvironmental markers (myths, proverbs, and religious/festive days).
In the field, we heard several times from our informants that the three festive days (the day of Akshyatritiya, the day of cloth showing of Machhendranath, also known as Bhoto-Jatra, and the Maha-Shivaratri) are likely to get some rain showers every year.4 To verify TWFK, we collected the recorded rainfall data of the festival days from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Government of Nepal. Hindu festivals, including Akshyatritiya, Bhoto-Jatra, and Maha-Shivaratri, are held according to the lunar calendar, so the dates vary from the solar calendar. Thus, we first read the lunar calendar and identified the festive days of each year from 1980 to 2020 and collected the recorded rainfall data of the festive days and a day before and a day after in the case of the Maha-Shivaratri festival. In the case of Bhoto-Jatra, we were unable to get the day in the lunar calendar. The day is fixed by local Newar priests who determine which day is auspicious. Thus, we visited Guthi Sasthan, the community festivals organizing institution, to find out the date of Bhoto-Jatra celebration in each year from 1980 to 2020. There was only the proposed date in the records. We went to the Central Library of Tribhuvan University and gathered the dates of Bhoto-Jatra in Gorkhapatra, a national newspaper. The newspaper covered the festival news, which helped us to find out the actual date each year.
3. Results
a. Reading the rains among farmers at Kirtipur
For the farmers of Kirtipur, traditional methods of weather forecasting are coping strategies to mitigate risks from drought and heavy rains. Farmers commonly read environmental markers like the winter rains, the clouds around the sun, waves of wind in the summer season, and the behavior of plants, birds, and other animals to predict the onset or cession of rain in their locality. In addition to environmental markers, specific days from the lunar calendar are also thought to be days on which rain will fall. These are taken as nonenvironmental markers. Such knowledge and practices are rooted in multigenerational observations and monitoring of the phenomena that appear in the landscape.
b. Reading meteorological characteristics
I heard from my grandfather and his generation the day in which the winter rainfall Maghe Jhari is to come and the summer rainfall Asare Jari is to come on a corresponding day. The amount of rainfall in Asar (mid-June to mid-July) would be more than a thousand times the winter rain. I also observed a “poor rain” in Asar when there was no rain in Magh (mid-January to mid-February) (P. B. Maharjan, born AD 1935).
When we shared P. B. Maharjan’s remark with other informants in the village in 2016 and 2021, they also agreed with him. If there is no rain in Magh (mid-January and mid-February), there is poor rain in Asar (mid-June and mid-July). In this way, winter rain foretells the quality and quantity of the monsoon rains to the farmers. The average rainfall in the Kathmandu Valley in Asar is around 300 mm. We examined the recorded precipitation data from the year 1980 to 2020. In two-thirds of the years in which the month of Asar had higher than average rainfall, rainfall occurred in Magh in the corresponding year. Poor rainfall in Asar was observed when there were no rainy events in Magh.5
Today, there is no rainfall in Magh that would have been in the past. I cannot tell what it is going to be. The precipitation in Asar and Saun is also erratic, uncertain, and stranger. We cannot plant wheat at the right time in the winter, and rice in summer. Thus, achel ke bhayeko ho, ma kehi pani bhanna sakdina (I cannot tell what is going to be like nowadays) (N. Thapa, born AD 1953).
The winter rain is essential for winter crops like wheat and mustard seed in the study area. Besides the current required rain, the rain is also a signal of both the amount and onset of summer rain, which is crucial for planting rice. In local perception, however, global warming has been adversely affecting the local weather system, which is intertwined with their subsistence farm-based livelihood. The phrase ‘ahile ke bhai raheko ho ma kehi pani bhanna sakdina (I cannot tell what it is going to be) clearly illustrates that the reliability of TWFK has been gradually weakening along with global climate change. In the Kathmandu Valley, for instance, the day of Akshyatritiya is locally recognized as “the day of rain.” It was almost routinely so from the year 1980 to 1993 and then became more erratic in the valley (Fig. 2). This indicates that TWFK in the valley was almost predictable and reliable until the early 1990s, but thereafter it has been uncertain and unpredictable.
Rainfall in the Kathmandu Valley on the day of Akshyatritiya 1980–2020.
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 14, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0174.1
c. Reading atmospheric characteristics (cloud)
The rain will come within a week if clouds appear around the sun at dawn. If the sun is covered with clouds at dusk, the rain will come within three days. The quantity of rain depends on the size of clouds around the sun at dawn and dusk. If there are thick clouds around the sun, there will be heavy rainfall and if there are thin clouds, the rain will be drizzly on the corresponding days. The rain will come very soon if there are spotty clouds (masaure-badal) (S. KC, born AD 1954).
Similarly, forthcoming rain is read by watching the colors of clouds. The appearance of white clouds in the sky means no rain, whereas black or dark clouds mean rain will come, and gray clouds indicate strong winds. Moreover, the appearance of the cloud in a specific location indicates the duration of rainfall. For example, the rain will come within an hour if clouds appear above Champadevi Hill, located in the southwest part of the village.
Atmospheric characteristics such as clouds, wind direction, and thunder direction all provide information about forthcoming rain. An elderly woman explained: “The appearance of flaming clouds on the horizon (sagar dadheko) at daybreak is a signal of the onset of rain within a week.” On 15 November 2020, flaming clouds appeared on the horizon at daybreak (Fig. 3). A few days later, the weather suddenly changed from sunny to cloudy and remained so until 27 November 2020. The ability to predict weather in this way accumulates from a lifetime of experience by the elderly women inhabiting the place, and it is not simply transmitted as a set of customary prescriptions or formulas (Ingold and Kurttila 2000; Cruikshank 2005). However, we did not observe the rain consistently occurring after flaming clouds anymore during recent years. The weather changes but does not necessarily produce rain. TWFK is still reliable to the extent that flaming clouds on the horizon is a sign of upcoming changes in the weather pattern in the valley on the one hand, and, on the other, the fact that rain does not always follow the appearance of flaming clouds illustrates new uncertainty in the TWFK. The knowledge is in the state of “liminality” [the term used by Turner (1967) in anthropology], that is, neither trustworthy nor untrustworthy.
The appearance of flaming cloud on the horizon at daybreak on 15 Nov 2020; the photograph is by Jiban Mani Poudel.
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 14, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0174.1
In addition, the farmers also used proverbs to read the summer rain, for example, Dakshin garjhyo gadyang-gudung; uttar garjhyo parchha bhel (A roaring sky in the south is thunder; a roaring sky in the north is heavy rain). In summer, this tells us that the heavy rains usually come in from the north in this location.
d. Reading the wind
I was told by my grandfather that the rainy season begins when the wind starts to blow from the east to the west in summer. It stops when the wind starts to blow from the west to the east at the end of summer (N. Maharjan, born AD 1966).
The statement has two meanings: a relation between the directions of the wind and the onset of and cessation of the rainy season in the study area, and the importance of social interaction between generations for the transmission of traditional ecological knowledge. I was told by my grandfather is a powerful statement that gives robust evidence that traditional ecological knowledge cannot be transmitted from one generation to the next genetically or through impersonal formulas (cf. Ingold and Kurttila 2000). It is passed down through social interactions between generations. However, such intergenerational interactions have been gradually weakening alongside affordability and access to modern education, use of new technology, and the transformation of livelihoods from farming to nonfarming activities in the village (we will discuss later in detail).
e. Reading biological characteristics
Look at the plants! Buds appear on the plants in Jesth and begin to flower in Asar. It is, therefore, called Asare-phul. But it does not bud and flower at the same time every year. In some years buds appear on the plants earlier and in some years later. The buds that appear on the plant tell us about the rain that is to come. If good buds appear earlier on the plants, the rain will be good and begin to fall earlier. If it is late with weak buds on the plants, there will be both delayed and low rain. When there was no radio and television in the village, we (villagers) used to read the buds before preparing the bed for paddy seedlings.
Like reading the times of bud appearance on the plants, the farmers of the study area also notice the behavior of some specific animals and insects to tell the weather that is to come. For instance, the appearance of a large number of flying termites on the ground in April, a dry month, indicates nearby rainfall. It is a sign to prepare the field for sowing maize. The appearance of a large number of flying termites on the ground is a part of traditional agroecological knowledge.
We notice the feathers on the head of the common mynah. They generally begin to fall with the beginning of sohra-shraddha.6 However, we cannot foretell it. Sometimes, they fall earlier and sometimes later. If the feather begins to fall earlier, the rainy season will end earlier. Then we start to prepare the land for mustard seed. If feathers on the head begin to fall later, the rainy season will not stop soon. We, thus, wait for a few days to prepare the land to sow mustard (L. S. Khatri born AD 1929).
This statement reveals that farmers’ knowledge of weather forecasting is empirical and paradigmatic, that is, empirical observations are interpreted in context (Kalland 1994, cited in Berkes 2008). Here, the fall of the feathers on the head of a common mynah indicates the timing of the cessation of rainy seasons, telling farmers when to start land preparation for mustard plantation. Traditional or indigenous ways of forecasting weather are, therefore, rooted in weather–crop interactions rather than mere observations of the behaviors of plants and animals or signs and signals that appear in the landscape in their locality (Roncoli et al. 2003).
f. Myths, the days, and rains
Two serpent deities dwell in two separate ponds near the village. One serpent deity dwells in Taudaha and another in Machchhenarayan Pond. Taudaha is located in the south-eastern of Machchhenarayan. They are wife and husband. In every Jesth (mid-May and mid-June), they engage in sexual intercourse. In the month, one visits another. Some year, Taudaha’s serpent deity visits Machchhenarayan and vice versa. Stormy rains come in the village on the day of the Serpent deity’s visit for relations and on the day of returning to his/her own pond afterwards. The direction of stormy rain is determined by the movement of the serpent deity. If the Taudaha serpent deity visits the Machchhenarayan serpent deity, the direction of stormy rain will be the south-east to the north-west and vice versa.
In Nepal, including in Kathmandu Valley, the beginning of the premonsoon in May to June is explained by the local people differently than by modern science. Western scientists may consider local explanations as just a myth, just a story (Ingold 2000). However, the myth has meaning for the local farmers; R. Bringhurst called it a theorem about the nature of reality, expressed not in algebraic symbols or inanimate abstractions, but in narrative form (cited in Pierotti 2016). The story, thus, is telling about how the climatic calendar, myths, agriculture, local landscape, weather, and animal behavior all intersect one another. From the myth of serpent deities, we realize that the relatedness and connectedness of nature and culture are the principal characteristics of traditional/indigenous knowledge including the weather forecasting system among the farmers of Kirtipur. Indeed, traditional/indigenous metaphors are derived from careful observation of relationships between humans and nonhumans and among nonhuman components of ecosystems that lead to the fundamental indigenous principle that “all things are connected” and “all things are related” (Pierotti 2011, p. 66).
g. Festive days and rain
There is a strong belief among the farmers about the festive days and rain. According to the lunar calendar, specific days like the Maha-Shivaratri festival and its surroundings (Fig. 4), the day of Akshyatritiya (see Fig. 2), and the day of Rato Machhendranath chariot pulling (Fig. 5) are considered as the days of rainfall.
Average rainfall in the Kathmandu Valley during the Maha-Shivaratri festival over 1984–2020.
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 14, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0174.1
Rainfall on the day of Machhendranath day 1980–2020.
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 14, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0174.1
There were different interpretations about the rainfall on the day of Maha-Shivaratri. According to astrologists, Maha-Shivaratri falls when the sun enters in kumbha-rashi, which is the symbol of a pitcher with full of water. The kumbha-rashi is interpreted as a water carrier. Hence, the rain comes on the day of Maha-Shivaratri. According to the lunar calendar, around the time of Shivaratri, the sun (represented as Fire and Lord Shiva) and moon (represented as Water and Parvati) move from the Tropic of Cancer to the Tropic of Aquarius. The merger of heat and cold causes evaporation, which then forms clouds and causes rainfall (Rimal and Nepal 2019). However, the local farmers had different interpretations than astrologists about the rain on the day. The people of the study area generally believe that the rain comes around the days of Maha-Shivaratri to expel the Indian naked saints forcefully from the Kathmandu Valley. During the Maha-Shivaratri, a large number of Indian naked saints visit Pasupatinath, one of the holy places of God Shiva, a Hindu deity, from India. Nakedness is a symbol of shame, embarrassment, and discomfort to the people of the valley. If the naked saints stay for a long time, embarrassment will also be prolonged. The God Shiva understands the feeling of embarrassment of the people, and he gives rain to handle it. The rain makes the weather of the valley cold. The Indian naked saints cannot bear the cold and return to India again as soon as possible. The interpretation, that is, God Shiva makes rain to remove the embarrassment and shame, is considered by western science as a mythical, irrational superstition rather than a rational or logical reality (Ingold 2000). Western science actually does not believe in it, rather explaining the rain as a natural event, contrary to the belief of the farmers of the Kathmandu Valley. Hence, the farmers do not see nature and culture as separate entities but understand both of them as two sides of the same coin.
We compared local perception and recorded meteorological data by DHM from 1980 to 2020 and found that two-thirds of local perception on the Maha-Shivaratri festival matches recorded (observed) data.
Machhendranath had to be brought because of the long-drawn-out drought caused by Gorakhnath. Gorakhnath came to know that his spiritual guide, Machhendranath, was then living in Kopotak Mountain, engaged in meditation, and as such he was not ordinarily accessible to anybody. Being anxious to meet guru, he devised a plan. He caught the nine Nagas of the valley and sat over them for twelve years thereby causing a severe drought. He did this because he knew Machhendranath would surely come to rescue his people from their distress. The drought impelled King Narendra Deva to seek advice from Bandhudata Acharya to save his country from the catastrophe. Together they went to Kopotak Mountain and requested Machhendranath to accompany them to the Valley. Having acceded to their request, Machhendranath took the form of a bee and entered into a Kalash (vessel) and was thus brought into the Valley. As soon as he arrived at the southern extremity of the Valley, there was heavy rainfall, and the drought came to an end (Nepali 1965, 317–318).
In June 1957, I was conducting fieldwork when the festival of Machhendranath was celebrated. People advised me not to proceed to the festival venue without an umbrella. It was a sunny day, I did not believe them. After the hour of exhibiting the shirt of Machhendranath was approaching, clouds began to gather up in the sky and afterward, it started raining heavily for an hour and so (Nepali 1965, p. 320).
Spring in 1924 had been unusually dry and fierce and there was a dire need of water everywhere, not only to enable the plowing and sowing to begin but even to provide the necessary drinking water. I observed a little rainfall when god was exhibited [P. Landon 1929, cited in Nepali (1965, p. 320)].
The eyewitness accounts of precipitation made by scholars on the day of showing Machhendranath’s auspicious cloth (Bhoto-Jatra) reflect traditional weather forecasting systems that have been practiced by the people of Kirtipur for foretelling the weather in their locality. Instrumental data from a nearby meteorological station provide some clues, but the uncertainty of TWFK has been increasing in the later years, which has been marked after the 1993 (see Fig. 5). The number of rainless years on the Machhendranath festival day has been gradually increasing in each decade. In the 1980s, for example, no rain was observed in the year 1981 and 1985 only. In the 1990s, no rainfall was observed in 1993 and 1998. In the 2000s, no rain was observed in the years 2005, 2007, and 2008, and in the 2010s, the rainfall was not observed in the years 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2020 (Table 2).
Number of rainy years in Asar (less or more than average rainfall) with correspondence to Magh in the Kathmandu Valley.
h. Impairment of TWFK
TWFK is learned from nature in what Acharya (2011) called “presage biology,” commonly practiced by farmers to reduce climatic risks, and thus related to agroecological knowledge. This knowledge is gradually diminishing in the study area. More than half of the respondents (51.1%) reported that the transformation of traditional agricultural practices was responsible for the waning of local forecasting knowledge. Similarly, for the impairment of TWFK, 28.9% of respondents noted the influence of modern education, 15.6% pointed to occupational shifts from agriculture to nonagriculture sectors, 20% referred to the arrival and use of modern technology (radio, television, and mobile phones), 15.6% talked about change in the ecological landscape, 15.6% mentioned the disappearance of local plants, and 13.3% discussed the disappearance of local animals.
Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the study area, once a breadbasket, has been transforming rapidly into fallow land and then to residential areas. Once the people in the study area were to be seen working in the farms around their houses or taking care of their cows. Both men and women earned their livelihoods in agriculture. Such scenes in the village have now become things of the imagination (Chhetri 2017). In 2020, for instance, only 7 households out of 45 depended solely on agriculture for their livelihood. Similarly, 21 households were in the state of giving up agriculture, and 19 households were no longer involved in agriculture. They either rented out their land to others or left the land barren, a trend that started in 20077 and is gradually accelerating every year. People are reluctant to continue traditional agricultural life and instead are moving toward other occupations like civil service, business, and self-employment. In the village, youths were found studying, working, and engaged in running small businesses for their income. When they are engaged in a nonagriculture occupation, they no longer need to read weather forecasting indicators to make decisions about future activities as the older generation used to do. Given this, the survival of the TWFK that has been learned from nature through the generations as a part of local ecological knowledge is uncertain.
In the study area, educated people are found to be more confident in and to rely more upon modern science-based weather forecasting methods than traditional ones, whereas less-educated people still rely on traditional methods (Table 3). Their explanations about expected rainfall are based on modern scientific methods and knowledge, as illustrated in a conversation observed between two young people drinking tea in the corner of a shop on 31 December 2012:
Response on the reliability of weather forecasting method by education level. Source: Field survey, 2021.
The first young man—Look at on the ground! Dew-fall is heavier and frozen more this year as compared with the last few years. Rain will fall in Magh.
The second young man—How?
The first young man—The sun heats the dewfall, then it changes into vapor in the air condenses back into the water.
This conversation is a representative case about how the western knowledge system has been shaping the ways of understanding that young people have about the process of precipitation. Indeed, the curriculum of Nepal’s education introduced scientific methods and techniques about reading the weather and weather process rather than depending on local prediction. Consequently, youths and children are not exposed to knowledge about local methods and techniques for reading the weather. The intervention of the western science-based education system is not only producing a new way of thinking among the youths but also causing them to discard and dismiss local knowledge. This change detaches the youths from nature and disconnects social interactions between generations that are essential for the production and passing on of traditional weather forecasting knowledge in the village.
Like other parts of the world, mass media such as radio, television, and mobile telephones not only broadcast news and entertainment through music and many other programs but also broadcast weather forecasts. Out of 45 informants, 41 reported that they listen to the radio, watch a program on television, and read weather forecasting websites in mobile apps to know the forthcoming weather.
4. Discussion
Waning of TKWF systems
Traditional weather forecasting systems are a product of practical engagement and rigorous attention by many generations who observed weather and associated phenomena in their surroundings. Ingold and Kurttila (2000) state succinctly that weather is experienced and cannot be transmitted as a set of customary prescriptions or formulas; it is accumulated from a lifetime of experience inhabiting well-known places. Therefore, “knowledge sits in places” (Basso 1996). Such knowledge is ecological and plural reflecting both the diversity of natural ecosystems and the diversity in cultures that give rise to nature-based living (Shiva 1992).
Anthropologists have described traditional or indigenous weather forecasting as a part of technical discourse (Strauss and Orlove 2004). As a technical discourse, it can foretell short-term expectations of weather events in a particular locality or region (Orlove et al. 2010). This knowledge is developed in a local landscape by monitoring the events or phenomena by individuals during their lifetime (Roncoli 2006). Moreover, the traditional forecasting system in the Kathmandu Valley is intertwined with myths, beliefs, and cultural values, which Kalland (1994) called an “institution of knowledge” (cited in Berkes 2008). Such myths are the parts of regional oral traditions and frequently yield trustworthy forecasts (Strauss 2004). We compared the cognized knowledge and scientific knowledge about precipitation on the three festive days; more than two-thirds of cognized knowledge (prediction) comes to match with scientific knowledge (see Table 4).
Statistics on number of nonrainy events by decade and overall matching of events on each festival.
The emphasis on western science-based education and the decrease in intergenerational social interactions is reducing the plurality of knowledge in Kirtipur. Likewise, traditional knowledge has been gradually disappearing when people pay more attention to new technology like mobile apps, television, and radio to figure out oncoming weather. Modern technology gives farmers access to information about the weather that is to come, which is an advantage in reducing risks; however, in the long term, as Innis (2008) said, it will establish a knowledge monopoly over time and space. As claimed by Smith (1999) modern technology is disconnecting local people from their oral history of weather forecasting, their landscapes, their way of communicating with nature, their social relations with nature, and their ways of thinking, feeling, and interacting with the world, much as colonial power relations have done around the world. Hence, modern technology as colonization, appears as a new kind of agency that is gradually disconnecting and displacing TWFK acquired from nature.
Climate change has become evident in the Nepal Himalaya and is manifested by an increase in mean temperatures. The increase of mean temperature in the Himalayan regions is 3 times as high (0.56°C yr−1) as the average warming of Earth (0.02°C yr−1) (Government of Nepal 2017). The increased temperature is adversely affecting the biophysical characteristics of the environment (Shrestha and Bawa 2012; Kumar et al. 2016) and transforming precipitation patterns (Poudel 2012, 2018; Pokharel et al. 2020; Paudel et al. 2021). It is also disturbing and dislocating human–nature relationships (Crate 2008; Fiske et al. 2014) including TWFK. Our findings reveal that the farmers have knowledge of rain patterns intertwined with environmental markers and nonenvironment makers, but these patterns have now become unpredictable and uncertain.
5. Conclusions
The data presented here show that the TWFK system is based on the interaction within the knowledge–practice–belief complex (terms used by Berkes 2008). It begins with the readings of local environment and environmental phenomena like climate, atmospheric phenomena, local landscape, and animal and plant behaviors. The second includes practice that intersects with agriculture and the agricultural calendar. The third component consists of local myths, beliefs attached with festivals. Hence, seeing nature and culture as a distinct entity is problematic in the context of TWFK. The relatedness and connectedness of nature and culture are the key characteristics of TWFK that lead to the fundamental traditional principle that all things like human, nonhuman, culture, beliefs, and values are connected and related to each other.
TWFK are closely bound with landscape, livelihood, and occupation. They are subjective, contextual, and locational. They are a product of practice and living memory of multiple generations that is (re)tested in the grounded reality and transmitted from one generation to the next as tacit knowledge through social interaction. Rapid expansion of the market economy, access to modern technology, affordability, and access to modern education have gradually detached people from their farmlands, traditional livelihoods, and occupations. All this seems to have weakened social interactions between generations as well as their attachment to nature. In such a rapidly changing context, the survival of TWFK, that is, the knowledge gained from interaction with nature, is not guaranteed.
Farmers, generally taken as forecast receivers or end-users by dominant scientific/market-driven frameworks, are also active players in the production, transmission, and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge. Farmers’ knowledge and practices of weather forecasting are time-tested, pragmatic, and place-specific. It is rooted in culture and cognitive landscape. It can provide useful information to complement the dominant science or market-driven framework. The recognition of farmers’ knowledge on weather forecasting should be a resource of great potential value to the agencies that develop and disseminate forecasts. Hence, the production and consumption of forecasting knowledge demand that local and scientific communities work together to reduce knowledge gaps and increase mutual understanding.
In this paper, TWFK refers to knowledge of farmers who represent the Newar, (an indigenous people of the Kathmandu Valley) and Chhetri (a hill-origin high-caste people) residing at the periphery of Kirtipur.
In the 1980s, many scholars/development practitioners used the term “indigenous knowledge” to avoid the term “traditional knowledge,” which is considered simple, savage, and static (Warren 1995, cited in Berkes 2008). Therefore, both terms are used interchangeably in some context in the text.
National Youth Policy, 2010, has defined the 16–40 age-group population as youths (Government of Nepal 2010). Similarly, Senior Citizens Act, 2006, has defined people 60 years old and older as elderly citizens (Government of Nepal 2006). We used these polices to categorize the respondents into three age groups.
There is a myth about Machhendranath, a rain deity, who comes to see Earth on the day and rain comes. Akshyatritiya is an auspicious day, so the god gives rain on the day. During the Shivaratri, a large number of Hindu naked saints visit Pasupatinath, one of the holy places of God Shiva, a Hindu deity, from India. It is commonly believed that the rain comes around the Shivaratri festive day to remove the saints from the Kathmandu Valley.
There was no rain in Magh of 1989, 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2009, and in the corresponding years, average rainfalls in Asar were 215.4, 178.5, 261.5, 250, and 215 mm, respectively, which are less the average rain of the month, i.e., 290 mm.
A period of 16 lunar days that falls in September and October in which Hindus arrange rituals for ancestors and honor them through food offerings.
Local people reported that agricultural land was converted into residential land when the flow of in-migrants began in the study area.
Acknowledgments.
We acknowledge our informants, who kindly shared their life experiences and knowledge on indigenous weather forecasting systems without any hesitation. We are also grateful to Professor Dilliram Dahal and Dr. Mukta Shing Lama for reading our paper and their critical feedback. We also thank Basanta Paudel for his support to develop the study area map. We also offer thanks to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions on our paper. We are highly indebted to the editorial team of the journal for providing the space.
Data availability statement.
We used meteorological recorded data to verify the indigenous knowledge on weather forecasting, but the data are not publicly available. In the case of TKWF, the section is not applicable.
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