1. Introduction
Small islands have been at the forefront of climate change for decades. Voices from the outside have been discussing the eventual fate of these locations while focusing on their physical stability, sovereignty, and migration management. This is reflected in the national communications directed toward the population. Climate change is discussed in the national newspaper as well as radio; however, its prevalence in the media does not necessarily lead to understanding or concern. People can remain attached to the place from which they originate or live, covering home, family, livelihoods, identity, culture, language, land, and landscape (Kelman et al. 2017). This is otherwise defined as “topophilia,” meaning place attachment or tendency toward the local (Tuan 1974). However, this attachment is more than simply sentimental. Interviews by Rudiak-Gould (2013) in the Marshall Islands demonstrate that this connection is also religious, noting that respondents indicate that the islands were given to their inhabitants by God. One way they understand this is through their connection to the rainbow. Commonly seen around the capital city, rainbows, in legend, are described akin to a halo called “aao.” People with aao can charm those around them. It brings luck and everyone can feel it (http://marshall.csu.edu.au/Marshalls/html/legends/frame-le-1-4.html). Rainbows are also integrated into daily language. “Iakwe” or “Yokwe” is a greeting that translates to “you are a rainbow.”
Local surveys acknowledge (van der Geest et al. 2019; Rudiak-Gould 2013) that the Marshallese do not identify the impacts of climate change as an important driver of migration, even though they express concern about the future impacts of climate change on the environment. People’s stated motivations for migration are the push factor of population growth at home, the pull factors of economic and educational opportunities abroad, and family reunion supported by the existence of well-established Marshallese communities in Hawaii, California, Arkansas, and elsewhere. This presents a conundrum, if there is concern for the future habitability of one’s home, why is there not active planning for climate-induced relocation?
The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) has a unique advantage over other Pacific Islanders in that they have the right to migrate to the United States to establish residency or look for work (Fascell 1986). The Compact of Free Association (COFA) it shares with the United States has allowed for the free flow of migration since 1986. The agreement also includes economic assistance to the RMI and limited health benefits for those impacted by nuclear testing (1946–58) in exchange for strategic military use of its territory (Morris et al. 2019). The Marshallese diaspora in the United States continues to grow and reached at total of 22 424 (2010 U.S. Census report; https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2012/dec/c2010br-12.pdf) in the last U.S. census. With four direct flights per week1 to the United States and the support of the compact, the Marshallese are more able than other Pacific Islanders to use migration as a strategy to adapt to climate change impacts. However, minimal research has considered why there is not more active planning toward relocation. Rudiak-Gould (2013) explains that rejecting climate resettlement is reflected in both the local sentiment and local nongovernmental organizations. He suggests that most locals reject resettlement as a solution to climate change and that the Marshall Islands Conservation Society aims to safeguard the subsistence lifestyle of the outer islands so as to prevent the flow of islanders to urban centers and the United States.
RMI is also a highly religious nation. The arrival of the first missionaries is so important that the entire nation celebrates Gospel Day in commemoration of the first generation of missionaries every first weekend of December (Berta 2021). Christianity colors the way in which the Marshallese see the world, which means it likely impacts their internalization of climate communication. One of the most significant functions ascribed to religion is its ability to present a cosmology or worldview. While scientific materialism is also a cosmological narrative, it is not automatically taken as the complete truth by religious people (Haluza-DeLay 2014). The Marshallese have reservations about climate change through a religious lens; they are skeptical about scientists’ expertise and honesty and believe in God’s promise in Genesis that Earth will never again be flooded, yet most Marshall Islanders profess a belief in climate change (Rudiak-Gould 2012).
This research questions the depth of religious influence and suggests that it is critically intertwined with a particular worldview that can view climate change as a sign of the end times. If interpreted in this manner, climate change will usher in a grand opportunity: to be reunited with God. Adaptive passivity to climate change (as a result of one interpreting climate change as this kind of opportunity) has important implications and difficult consequences. These include misunderstanding climate communication, ignoring severe weather forecasting, and not preparing for eventual evacuation. Ignoring or minimizing communications on forecasting, or climate impact safety has the potential to contribute to the destruction of homes and livelihoods, the loss of food security, and personal safety. This can also create unintended impediments for aid agencies and assistance if/when ground conditions become extremely hazardous. Biblical literalism is prevalent in many locations of climate vulnerability and in order to develop an effective framework for climate communication, it is important to investigate the impact of such influence in the Marshall Islands, the greater Pacific, and beyond.
2. Literature review
a. Christianity and climate change
Religion guides the worldview of many, its principles and teachings reverberating through how people approach their day-to-day lives and modern challenges. These are cosmologies: narratives that contain our most fundamental assumptions about the world and the place of humanity in the cosmos. Modern cosmology portrays humankind as exempt from natural laws and separate from and independent of natural systems (Haluza-DeLay 2014). In the context of a changing climate, religious attachment has not necessarily guided a meaningful and ethical response. Posas (2007) argues that religion supports ethical actions on climate change through providing a long-term perspective, defining and discouraging unhealthy practices, and educating their followers. However, while some Christian denominations have become more active on environmental issues, studies of individuals have not shown a positive relationship (Konisky 2018). Evangelical fundamentalism is the most consistent factor in determining perceptions of global warming. Specifically, American fundamentalists are less likely to believe in the existence of, anthropogenic causes, and adverse impacts of global warming (Shao 2017). In the United States, those who have a strong literal interpretation of the Bible have a lower concern about the environment and a stronger belief in their own efficacy in controlling outcomes (Morrison et al. 2015). Modern Christian fundamentalism began in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and is predominantly defined by its literal interpretation of the Bible. Biblical literalism is a main tenant of Christian fundamentalism. Those who adhere to this version of faith believe that Holy Scripture is the word of God, infallible and referring to real situations and events (Momen 1992). While there are multiple definitions of biblical literalism, this paper will employ the definition above. The term “fundamentalism” originated just before World War I (WWI) in reference to conservative scholars who argued that the authority of Scripture is so fundamental to Christian faith that anyone denying it should be seen as outside the tradition (Woodberry and Smith 1998). While these terms can be interchangeable, when used in this paper: “fundamentalism” will refer to a belief structure, and “literalism” to a specific belief.
Survey research in this area demonstrates that biblical end times expectations were influential with 49% of Americans attributing natural disasters to “end times” as described in the Bible. Black Protestants and White Evangelical Protestants attributed weather-related natural disasters to biblical end times in the greatest proportions, 74% and 77%, respectively (Jones et al. 2014). This attribution poses some difficulty for climate communications. If Christian fundamentalists believe that they see prophecy rather than human-induced disaster, they may not be open to mitigation efforts, long-term adaptation scenarios, or out-migration. Another complication is how intertwined churches are in disaster relief effort. In the Pacific, climate change specialists frequently report that churches play a significant role in cultures and authority systems of local communities (Haluza-DeLay 2014). The interplay between church, state, and relief apparatus places Pacific churches in crucial position to support both local cosmology and climate impact recovery, unless these are in opposition.
b. The Noahic Covenant and apocalyptic narratives
According to the Bible, the Noahic Covenant was a promise God made to humankind following God’s destruction of nearly everything of God’s creation with a flood, sparing only Noah’s family and animal representatives (Genesis 6:8–8:19). Following the flood, God promised to never flood Earth again to destroy life, and vowed to protect the prosperity of nature (Genesis 8:20–9:17). Marshallese who interpret the Noahic Covenant through a literal lens argue that God will never destroy Earth again with water—if God destroys Earth again, it will be with fire (Rudiak-Gould 2013). In a previous study, locals cited Genesis 9:11–13 to question the prevalence of sea level rise, arguing that God would never allow global warming to destroy land, as he promised to never destroy Earth again with a flood (Rudiak-Gould 2013). The fundamentalist Christian views expressed in the Marshall Islands have made way for God to be a trustworthy source on climate change; the promise is reinforced with every rainbow. The rainbow becomes much more than a meteorological phenomenon, it is a sign of luck and comfort and ties this biblical story with the nations’ traditional culture. Previous interviews in the Marshalls cited the Noahic Covenant as a reason for the general lack of concern about sea level rise (Rudiak-Gould 2013).
Views of the events of Jesus’s Second Coming vary among Christian populations, but many fundamentalists look to the Book of Revelation to provide insight regarding the signs of the Second Coming. There are four primary interpretations of Revelation throughout the history of the church: the Preterist view, the Futurist view, the Idealist view, and the Historicist view (Collins 1999). Futurists argue that the events outlined in the Book of Revelation are literal events to occur in the future, just before the return of Jesus Christ. Futurist interpretations believe in a rapture of living beings and a tribulation, known as a 7-yr period of persecution for all of God’s followers (Collins 1999). This view is common among many Christians who interpret the Bible to mean exactly as it is written. This paper will use a Futurist lens to analyze the events of the Rapture and the Second Coming of Christ because it is the view most consistent with literal interpretations of the Bible. Futurist interpretations differ on the timeline of the Rapture and are often split between the belief that the Rapture will occur before the tribulation, toward the middle of the tribulation, or after the tribulation has occurred. The exact chronology of the events of the Rapture and the Second Coming of Christ are dependent upon one’s view of the tribulation period, thus meaning that there are many different interpretations of these events throughout Christianity.
Following the initial introduction, the majority of Revelation consists of the series of events to occur during a period of time in which those who denounce God are punished by cosmic forces and Christian followers are persecuted by the newly established kingdom of the Antichrist. According to Revelation, the first heaven and Earth will pass on when God appears for the final judgment, initiating the events of the Rapture. After God’s judgment, the wicked will be punished by being sent to hell. A new heaven and Earth will appear, and Jesus Christ will establish a kingdom to solve all human ills and problems. This event, referred to as the Second Coming of Christ, is understood as a period of time when Christ will establish his kingdom on Earth, judge those who inhabit Earth, and reward his faithful followers on the basis of the works they have accomplished (Collins 1999).
c. Climate communication and framing
There has never been a more accurate and consistent understanding of the seriousness of climate change even if saliency and urgency are lacking. However, even when countries report high concern, the issue may not be as important as others (Stoknes 2014). Fostering effective communication between the scientific world and the general public (about climate change) is challenging (Rabinovich et al. 2012). Climate change impacts systems and uncertainty lies with its lack of direct predictability; projecting climate impacts occurs across regions and decadal time frames. Climate change impacts seem distant in time, but are also described as distant in space and sometime as invisible (Moser 2010; Stoknes 2014). The difficulty is fostering trust in predictions not specific to time and space; knowing that hurricanes will increase in size and intensity but not when and where they will occur leaves plenty of space for skepticism to breed. In addition, there is a lag between climate changes, social systems, and the cumulative nature of emissions such that virtually no individual today will see Earth’s climate return to normal within their life span—even if great lengths were undertaken to reduce emissions (Moser 2010).
Uncertainty does not lie with the accuracy of scientific models, but rather how those models are interpreted by laypeople. Kause et al. (2021) finds that understanding among climate information users was improved when uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings were presented with explanations about why climate information was uncertain. This requires users to have access to this information. Yet, among Pacific Islander communities, understanding of climate change’s impact is limited (Harris et al. 2016). Some authors contend that not enough effort has been made to hear and include the local island voices in the debate over the impact of climate change (Kelman 2010; Paton and Fairbairn-Dunlop 2010), which is an important part of ensuring the local population is fully mobilized. While climate education is lacking in the Pacific, regional organizations have begun to fill the gap. The Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Program (SPREP) has developed a Pacific Climate Change portal, while other regional organizations have developed their own toolkits (Harris 2014). Most recently, social media has allowed Pacific Islanders to harness citizen journalism to become content creators. These local narratives have sought to depict islanders as warriors rather than victims (Titifanue et al. 2017).
A large body of research within the cognitive sciences shows that the way information is presented affects both its understanding and credibility (Amelung et al. 2016). Properly framing climate change communication is therefore imperative to improve local understanding as well as to cut through science writings’ technical jargon and the lay misunderstanding of invisible impacts and certainty. Frames are interpretive storylines that set a specific train of thought in motion, communicating why an issue might be a problem, who or what might be responsible for it, and what should be done about it (Nesbit 2009). Frames are triggered by words, imagery, symbols, and nonverbal cues such as messengers, music, tone of voice, and gestures. One of the challenges that has affected, and in some instances undermined, climate change communication to date is that there is rarely just one frame to communicate a high-stakes issue (Moser 2010). Bolsen et al. (2019) highlights several studies on framing. Frames that accentuate scientific consensus regarding human-caused climate change have been found to increase belief in human-caused climate change. Other studies have demonstrated that highlighting its local impacts can increase public concern and support for actions to address the problem (Bolsen et al. 2019). Weather and disasters are generally understood as natural phenomena not controlled by humans but instead, “acts of God” (Moser and Dilling 2004). The phrase began to be used in legal and insurance circles as early as the nineteenth-century Trade Dictionary; “Force-majeure, a French commercial term for unavoidable accidents in the transport of goods, from superior force, the act of God, etc.” (Simmonds 2013). It continues to be used in colloquial speech, even used by those who may not be religious. This framing is not only commonplace, but an ancient tradition in the Pacific. Pre-Christian deities were held to account for environmental change, particularly disasters, while predictable harvests and reliable supplies of wild foods were invariably sought by maintaining divine goodwill (Nunn et al. 2016). Studies conducted in Fiji, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, document cyclones and sea level rise having been explained by locals as God’s will (Rudiak-Gould 2009; Lata and Nunn 2012) while others have described being protected by God during these processes (Mortreux and Barnett 2009). This connection between God and extreme events is also seen among climate communicator artists of Tonga emphasizing that “climate change is under the control of God” citing the Bible’s indication that such changes mark the coming of Christ (Capstick et al. 2018). As a well-known and existing frame, it becomes difficult to change.
When asked about climate concerns, Pacific Islanders favored a psychological distancing of environmental risk in which “other places” were perceived as more exposed than familiar ones (Nunn et al. 2016). This relates to the impact of psychology on such communications. Humans have a profound resistance to knowing and facing up to harsh and ugly realities (Stoknes 2014). It is easier to accept risks to “other places” than have to accept them to those we hold dear. Most interventions intended to reduce environmental risk in the Pacific have failed to acknowledge the influence of spirituality, connectedness, and religious context—messages that communicate within these contexts are likely to be more successful (Nunn et al. 2016).
Current research supports the idea that conservative theology contributes to environmental skepticism (Arbuckle 2017) and our field survey indicates that many Marshallese are fundamentalists. Fundamentalism, in its strict and literal adherence to the accuracy of the Bible, fulfills the basic human need for certainty. Such cosmologies can manifest in practical ways that go beyond different understandings of the world; the belief that a divine force is in control of the cosmos (Haluza Delay 2014) is likely to provide hope in the face of negative environmental impacts. Those who interpret the Bible literally may experience an alleviation in the unease that comes with the uncertainties and turmoil of life—it eliminates any room for questions of one’s fate or alternative interpretations of God’s plan for the world.
An additional consideration when framing climate change communication is the belief of stewardship versus dominion over nature. White (1967), argued that Western Christianity’s anthropocentric view of the world triggered the ecological crisis we live in today and has permitted environmental destruction. An anthropocentric viewpoint regards humans as the most important being in the universe, and thus they should take what they need from Earth to sustain their societies. Those who hold an anthropocentric view of the world believe that God made the world “explicitly for man’s benefit and rule because only humanity is made in God’s image” (White 1967). Anthropocentrism, aligning with the notion of human dominion over nature, has often been used to justify environmental destruction and violence against the natural world. Conservative Christians, such as Baptists, Mormons, and Evangelicals, frequently hold this view, citing the Genesis creation story as evidence for their power over nature.
d. Climate communication in the RMI
Climate communication was periodic in 1980s but became more prevalent after the national newspaper featured its first front-page article on it in 2009 (Rudiak-Gould 2012). A weekly publication, the Marshall Islands Journal (colloquially called “The Journal”) is the only local newspaper. Although it is written primarily in English and is not sold on the outer islands, its information is often communicated by word of mouth among those on Majuro and to their families on outer islands.
The authors conducted an examination of 1100 digital news articles from September 2015 to July 2022 published by The Marshall Islands Journal; 46 of these articles are related to climate change and the environment, and the article topics can be divided into various subcategories: climate policies, environmental sustainability, island infrastructure, community action, and climate change-related events (including sea level rise, floods, droughts, and temperature extremes). Fifteen articles focused on climate change-related events, including flooding, droughts, sea level rise, increasing temperatures, and more frequent storms. Droughts, floods, and sea level rise were the most frequently cited occurrences in the articles studied. Of these 46 articles, 14 fall into the category of climate policies. These articles frequently summarized meetings of local, national, and international leaders as they discussed climate change and proposed solutions or actions for the RMI to take to address these issues. Nine articles focused on sustainability in the environment, including the development of sustainable tuna fishing practices, water security, renewable energy sources, and addressing the issue of farming in the RMI. Six articles addressed community events, which provided details of local meetings, projects, and events that addressed the impacts of climate change on the RMI. Last, two articles focused on developing island infrastructure such as transportation routes and seawalls to combat the impacts of rising sea levels and increased flooding.
The frequency of articles varies, with the publication of four climate and environment articles in 2016, six articles in 2017, six articles in 2018, nine articles in 2019, four articles in 2020, seven articles in 2021, and four articles in the first six months of 2022. Some information about these articles can be summarized:
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Articles frequently detail meetings of government officials with international players but do not describe the precise nature of the meetings—they read like announcements of meetings or general coverage of government meetings. These give the impression of being appearance-based rather than action-based toward climate change.
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Sea level rise is frequently mentioned.
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Climate change is not explicitly defined for readers—it is expected of them to have their own knowledge of the concept, which, as our surveys have found, is very limited.
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Articles mention that weather is “extreme and unusual” and report on increasing droughts, flooding, storms, temperature changes, and sea level rise but rarely associate these events with climate change.
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A joint project between the RMI and the World Bank provides visuals of the impacts of climate change on the atoll: “These new visual models—which collect and connect many layers of data that were never available before—provide Marshall Islanders with detailed insights into the likely impacts of rising sea levels on densely populated parts of the country”:
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This visual model demands a prerequisite understanding of the concept of climate change. Marshallese who do not understand this concept are not ready to progress to the next level, and interpretation of data (especially if a translation is not provided) is out of touch with the level of education that most Marshallese have.
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This is useful for policy makers and government officials but does not address the issue of Marshallese citizens not understanding climate change and how it impacts them daily.
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Radio continues to be the main medium for climate messaging. A previous study (Rudiak-Gould 2011) showed that 37% of respondents acknowledged radio as a source of climate information. Local radio is easily available and is primarily in the Marshallese language, Marshallese can also access British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) World News in English (Rudiak-Gould 2011). The current study also indicated a similar response, with 31% of the respondents’ main source of information being radio.
The level of understanding and interpretation of scientific information is equal in importance to the accessibility of climate information sources. No exact words in Marshallese directly correspond to “weather” and “climate.” The closest fit is the term “mejatoto,” which can mean weather, sky, heaven, air, atmosphere, and space (Abo et al. 1976). Rudiak-Gould’s (2012) research on this indicates that it can be interpreted as a mix of things including cosmic, meteorological, temporal, moral, cultural, and economic items. Mejatoto can refer to breadfruit blight as much as to an intense eclipse or disease. Climate change comprehension could be dubious among the local population if they view the term through a broader cosmological lens. This presents a language barrier between science and local culture, conflating climate change and a vague catchall for a variety of societal ills. The events depicted in the Bible also overlap with the breadth of mejatoto, which could make it easier for literalists to connect the changes they experience to their grander beliefs in prophecy and apocalypse.
3. Background and methods
The research for this paper was conducted in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, which is an archipelago of 29 atolls and 5 coral islands just north of the equator (see Fig. 1). It is composed of two parallel island chains: the Ratak and Ralik, east and west, respectively. Austronesian voyagers arrived in Micronesia at least 2000 years ago, but there was no coherent pan-Marshallese identity until the arrival of Westerners. Before colonial contact, the past tends to be described as a lost idyll in which Marshall Islanders had endless abundance from the land and sea but also a dystopia of heathen savagery (Rudiak-Gould 2010).
Map of the Marshall Islands. Source: OpenStreetMap (accessed: 15 Mar 2021; https://www.openstreetmap.org/export#map=4/-10.62/168.13&layers=H).
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 15, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0117.1
While the Spanish ignored the islands, Germany held them as of the mid-nineteenth century, establishing copra plantations, and brought in Christianity (Rudiak-Gould 2010). Missionaries arrived in 1857 and were immediately supported by the paramount chief (Allen 2001). The Japanese assumed control of the territory at the beginning of WWI. With this came an overhaul of the economic and social system. Japanese customs and language became prevalent as well as the intensification of the coconut grove planting (McMahon 1919). They also fortified them heavily in preparation for WWII, and after the war the United States would administer it as a Trust Territory under the United Nations (Rudiak-Gould 2010). The U.S. military completed 67 nuclear tests there between 1946 and 1958 at Bikini and Enewetak Atoll, displacing the population and causing burns, birth defects, and cancer (Atomic Heritage Foundation 2022). The Marshall Islands separated from the Trust in 1978 and were becoming politically independent but signed a Compact of Free Association with the United States approved by Congress in 1986. Although independent, the republic still relies heavily on American aid (Rudiak-Gould 2010; Yamada et al. 2017) because there are few large employers beyond the government and the U.S. military base on Kwajalein and Majuro Atolls. Majuro is the center of commercial and administrative activity (Williamson and Sabath 1982). Traditional sources of starch such as pandanus, and breadfruit, have been largely replaced by rice; these are now supplemental rather than staples. Canned tuna and sardines are preferred to fresh fish because of convenience and prestige (Yamada et al. 2017).
The following study is based on grounded theory (Glaser and Strauss 1967) and is ethnography based. Previous research conducted in the field in 2018 (Simonelli 2018a,b) demonstrated that, while the RMI has many challenges, climate change was not perceived as urgent. Informal interviews with various locals outlined many environmental challenges, but no urgent local initiatives to migrate or demands to mitigate damage. Although most locals had heard of climate change and attributed it as the cause of many problems, it appeared to be simply accepted rather than rallied against. Their unquestioned acquiescence is at odds with the Western outsiders who research this issue. Grounded in constructivism (Charmaz 2006), the source of this must be significant to locals but is something that outsiders are less likely to distinguish. The majority of Marshallese are religiously observant Christians (see Fig. 2), and this impacts local custom and dress.2 Participation in these kinds of rituals affords the congregation a sense of social solidarity in the face of growing social class distinctions based on the accumulation of wealth gained through participation in the capitalist world and is evocative of intragroup ties lost with the rise of individualism throughout the islands (Allen 2001). This effect is visible while spending time in the RMI, and, although it was administered by the United States for several decades, there is a sense of divide between those who embrace modernity and development and those for hold tight to church doctrine and dogma.
Religious groups in the Marshall Islands. Source: Association for Religious Data Archives (ARDA), National Profiles: Marshall Islands (https://www.thearda.com/internationalData/countries/Country_144_1.asp; accessed 23 Mar 2021).
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 15, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0117.1
a. Research site
Surveys were conducted on Majuro; it is the capital and the most populous atoll, with the majority of churches (see Fig. 3). It is estimated that of its (estimated as of 2021) 78 831 population, two-thirds, or 52 549, live between Majuro and its neighbor Ebeye, the second most populous area and most densely populated locations in the Pacific (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/marshall-islands/). As an atoll, Majuro is geographically long and thin with one main two-lane road running from Laura to Rita (Djarrit).
Administrative map of the Marshall Islands. Adapted from World Atlas (https://www.worldatlas.com/maps/marshall-islands).
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 15, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0117.1
b. Data
This study utilizes a mixed-methods approach; data collection is qualitative (sampling and questions), while the analysis is quantitative. Participants were selected using a combination of convenience and snowball sampling from the last week in February and mid-March 2020. Surveys were conducted at one of the local schools (with permission from the principal to speak with support staff), outside one of the two main supermarkets, and around the village of Rita. The sites are indicated on Fig. 4, each designated with an “X.” These areas are the most populous areas on the island and are near the location of basic services such as the only supermarkets and hospital as well as the post office.
Map of Majuro. Source: LA Times (10 Nov 2019). The “X” symbols are defined in the text.
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 15, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0117.1
Surveys were administered in Marshallese in teams of two, each consisting of a researcher and a locally hired translator. While many people do speak some English, most are not fluent unless they are highly educated or work in business or government. Respondents were required to be 18 years of age and were permitted to quit at any time. The survey was a total of 30 questions, including demographic information. Respondents were asked about their church affiliation and activities, which indicate their religiosity and belief system; questions about climate change came at the end to avoid potential fatigue effects. Climate and environmental change are common research topics in the Marshall Islands; focusing on religion and relegating a short climate section to the end allowed for respondents not to feel exhausted with answering questions that they may have previously encountered.
4. Results and analysis
A total of 55 people completed the survey before COVID fears began to impact the atoll.3 The participants skewed more female than male (61.82% and 38.18%, respectively) and ranged from 21 years of age to 74. Table 1 is a full exposition of the survey respondents.
Respondent breakdown by age, sex, and religious denomination.
Respondents were primarily Protestant, with only 8 Catholic and 2 Baha’I, with 34 reporting fundamentalist church affiliation, which amounts to 62%. Regular church attendance at least once per week was recorded by 73% of respondents. Of religious activity outside church, 93% reported that they pray privately and 67% said that they read the Bible. A majority of respondents (57%) also believe that the Bible should be taken literally and means exactly what it says. Ninety percent believe in God’s promise to Noah, but their understanding of this varied. Only 14 participants (25%) correctly identified God’s promise to Noah that, after the deluge, God would never again flood Earth and that God sent the rainbow as a sign of this sacred covenant. The many varied answers included that the promise meant the Second Coming of Christ, that Noah should build a boat, the promise is the Ark, and obey God and Jesus. That this answer varied to such an extent significantly puts into question locals’ understanding of Scripture. However, 81% of participants report that they have seen signs identified in the Book of Revelation. When prompted to discuss their experience with the signs, R1 mentions that the “moon is red (eclipse is appearing at the wrong time)” and R53 states that, “siblings hate each other, we do not listen and obey our parents.” More telling is how many relate these signs to climate change impacts; 36 participants (65%) identified fluctuating seasons, increased heat, rain variability, more frequent typhoons, sea level rise, and/or climate change as the signs of Revelation. R51 was very specific with this, stating that a sign was “climate change—breadfruit doesn’t grow in season today. It grows in February instead of December.” Similarly, R35 said, “Land erosion, sea level rise, bipolar weather.” The association is even more clear when word clouds are used to show overlap in the way that participants explain their experience of the signs of Revelation and their experience of climate change. As Figs. 5 and 6 show, the words they use the most to describe both of these are “sea level rise” and “stronger heat.”
Respondents’ experience of the signs of the revelation.
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 15, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0117.1
Respondents’ experience of climate change.
Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 15, 3; 10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0117.1
An even stronger majority of respondents (82%) believe in the Second Coming of Christ, with 80% having described their experience of these signs as well. While climate change and sea level rise were mentioned, the consensus responses spoke more to interpersonal strife such as murders, generalized violence, and international conflict. However, when asked if the respondents viewed global environmental changes as an indication of the Second Coming, 78% agreed with that statement.
Similar research in this vein (Loughry and McAdam 2008; Mortreux and Barnett 2009; Lata and Nunn 2012) only presented descriptive statistics. This investigation employs inferential statistics and, specifically, correlational analysis to assess if there is a relationship between religious fundamentalist views and one’s interpretation of global environmental change. One major belief that underpins Christian fundamentalism is the Second Coming of Christ. Christ’s return to Earth is supposed to usher in a new era with Jesus rewarding the faithful and judging his enemies. The event is supposed to be a joyous one for his followers, as paradise with their savior is the reward for unwavering conviction. Those who believe in the Second Coming may be looking for its signs in the world around them—including attributing these perceived signs to other phenomena. If one is faithful and believes that they will be with their savior when he comes, they may also be looking for signs of his imminent arrival in generalized world events. A Spearman’s correlation (Tables 2 and 3) was run on two sets of variables: those who believe in the Second Coming and those who attribute global environmental changes to it, and those who believe they will be with Jesus with those who attribute global environmental changes to the Revelation. The results are below.
Correlation (Spearman’s rho) of those who believe in the Second Coming and who attribute it to global environmental changes. Asterisks indicate that the correlation is significant (sig) at the 0.01 level (two tailed).
Correlation (Spearman’s rho) of those who believe they will be with Jesus after the Second Coming with those who attribute global environmental changes to the Revelation. The asterisk indicates that the correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (two tailed).
Both relationships are positive and significant, with Table 2 demonstrating a correlation coefficient of 0.519 (significant at 0.01) and Table 3 yielding a correlation coefficient of 0.326 (significant at 0.05). The association in Table 2 is strong, while it is moderate in Table 3. The correlation is stronger between people who believe in the Second Coming and those who interpret the global environmental changes they see as a sign of the Second Coming than it is for those who believe that they will personally be with Jesus when the Second Coming occurs. This is also represented in the descriptive data: 82% believe in the Second Coming while only 43% believed that they would meet Jesus when he arrives. Moreover, 96% believe in salvation, but only 69% believe they have reached salvation. More participants believe in the process for being able to be with Jesus when he arrives than anticipate they have met the requirements in order to do so. Last, the idea of stewardship and protection of the natural environment was also present; when given the choice of two statements to best summarize their view: “God expects people to be good stewards of nature,” and “God expects people to rule over nature,” 78% expressed a belief in environmental stewardship.
5. Discussion
Literalist biblical interpretations in the RMI appear to influence the interpretation of current and impending environmental change. The survey indicated a solid presence of fundamentalism in the island nation. This includes 62% of the surveyed population and two-thirds of the Catholics in the sample. Thus, literalism is a pervasive concept, even with denominations that are not usually thought to be fundamentalist. Belief in the Second Coming colors the way many Marshallese view the world around them. Previous studies reinforce this interpretation (Allen 2001) and discuss the internalization that the Assemblies of God (AOG) Marshallese have for the “end times.” They see social problems as secondary to salvation; with the end of the world close at hand, they look to prayer as the only means to assure oneself a ticket to heaven. If worldly issues are of no concern, Marshallese fundamentalists may view the climate challenges brought to them by corporate polluters and fossil fuel path dependency of other nations as a sign that heaven is near; the implications of this are potentially grave.
Interpreting climate impacts as a sign of the end times, many Marshallese may invite these challenges rather than see them as something that needs to be addressed. Incidents of damage may be met with a resolute acceptance of the hardship as the process to meet their deity. If so, locals are unlikely to see increasing damage as an urgent problem to address rather than an indication of heaven being nearby. There is no need to pressure the local government to be “tougher on climate change” or to plan for out-migration to higher/safer ground. Human security becomes an afterthought rather than a focus. This interpretation of the world may actively sabotage government initiatives on climate change adaptation from being effective. If climate impacts are an act of God, they cannot be ameliorated and may be seen as a demonstration of their faith. Literal interpretations of apocalyptic narratives combined with local climate change messaging may demonstrate climate change as a welcomed part of God’s plan and a sign of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ.
There also appears to be some level of disconnect between belief and comprehension on a couple of fronts. The first is regarding the Noahic Covenant. That the Marshallese overwhelmingly believe in God’s promise to Noah but appear to lack an understanding of it is surprising. When asked if they believe in the promise, they were directly read the Genesis (9:13–16) verse about the rainbow representing the covenant not to flood Earth again. Subsequently, when asked what this meant to them, the answers varied greatly, including the Second Coming of Christ, that Noah should build a boat, the promise is the Ark, and to obey God and Jesus. That this answer varied to such an extent significantly questions locals’ understanding of Scripture; however, 89% report reading the Bible at least sometimes. This could likely be a self-reporting bias to appear more pious because the Bible has been available in Marshallese since 1983 (https://marshallislandsjournal.com/bible-now-in-karin-majol/). The second issue of comprehension concerns understanding what “climate change” means. The data indicate that 94.5% have heard of the term “climate change” with the same percent equating it to “mejatoto.” However, 76% of respondents defined it as either a “change in climate” or “change in weather” without further explanation. Therefore, it remains unclear if most Marshallese understand the scientific basis of the phenomenon or if they are simply repeating what they have heard now that climate communication is more prevalent across mediums.
Many Marshallese consider their faith to be of utmost importance in their lives, and this study has confirmed a relationship between those who harbor biblical literalist views and how they view the environmental changes they see and face. However, this investigation needs to be expanded to know whether this relationship is generalizable. A main limitation of this study is its size. While large enough to confirm results using a Spearman’s rho, the size was adversely impacted by imminent border closures due to COVID. The nation was closed to all incoming travelers from 1 April 2020 until May 2022 (for nonnationals and nonessential workers) and required cumbersome multiweek quarantine in either Honolulu, Hawaii, and Majuro or both until 6 September 2022 (https://global-monitoring.com/gm/page/events/epidemic-0002113.KIqcrAmUBKIY.html?lang=en).
Other limitations include how much weight climate change holds among other issues the Marshallese face and comprehension disconnect. The Marshallese may not pay adequate attention to the climate communications available to them when other development needs are more pressing. This survey did not offer a question asking how both religion and climate rank against the Marshallese’s other day-to-day concerns. Furthermore, those who are unable to identify Gods’ promise to Noah may also rely heavily on listening to sermons rather than reading Scripture, therefore connecting literalism to the interpretation of a religious leader rather than the Bible itself. The survey did not measure how often a respondent prays or reads the Bible, but it did measure how often they attended religious services. If the devout rely on sermon over reading the Bible, considering local beliefs needs to be informed by the various pulpits. Belief in literalism, but trusting one’s pastor to deliver it, leaves open the possibility for the interpretation of man.
Climate communication in religious settings is not wholly uncommon in the region. The World Council of Churches has a “Care for Creation and Climate Justice” program with an emphasis on stewardship. This congregation has a presence in the Marshall Islands but only 16% of our sample were members of this church group. Considering the local belief in being good stewards of the environment, it may be beneficial to balance any communication within this frame. However, more research is necessary to evaluate if such a pivot would be successful in other denominations to increase awareness. Churches are a key setting for disseminating information in small communities and using them as a tool for effective climate communication needs to be tailored to the key teachings and local knowledge to benefit a literalist worldview. Government officials and policy makers often involve science communicators, but they may need to consider the input of religious leaders as to how to reach communities that may be less inclined to believe or rely on government bulletins over the local pastor.
Religious belief is strong and exists through faith in what cannot be seen. While carbon in the atmosphere is also invisible, evidence of this can be measured experientially. Likewise, the devout may also argue the same thing: that atmospheric and geophysical events act as their “evidence” for biblical apocalypse. Viewing climate catastrophe as the righteous outcome of a divine plan by Christians anywhere will be a challenge to migration governance planning, human rights, and aid apparatuses. Many believers may feel less inclined to heed evacuation orders if they are certain that their belief will be their salvation rather than public safety precaution. There is also no urgency to leave a deteriorating situation or participate in relocation dialogues if one sees heaven on the horizon instead of hell. This will test the legal definitions of individual agency and question what role, if any, governance has to force its people to adhere to public safety policies, especially if they can be interpreted as paternalism toward the devout. How long will governments allow people to stay in a dangerous situation if removing them challenges their religious freedom? What is the role of aid agencies in this situation? While the topic of involuntary immobility is still in its infancy (Farbotko 2018; Farbotko and McMichael 2019; Farbotko et al. 2020; Thornton et al. 2023), religious devotion is not yet indicated as a main reason for resistance to migration and relocation planning.
Prior to COVID border closures.
As female researchers, the authors needed to dress appropriately to the Marshallese sense of modesty, meaning that we had to have our shoulders and knees covered at all times. This particular standard is fairly strict, and even local women do not don a bathing suit to swim. Local dress consists of a “Guam,” which is a large-cut polyester dress in a print. These are worn daily, sometimes with pants underneath, and even in the lagoon for a swim.
Rumors of island shutdown began circulating in the second week of surveying. The decision to end at 55 was due to two reasons: 1) as a part qualitative instrument, the responses had hit a point of saturation; 2) local rumors posited that the last plane off the island might be the following week, which made it imperative to get the second author (a research assistant) off the island before shutdown.
Acknowledgments.
The authors thank Save Filolita and Monica Majmeto for their help with translation services on Majuro for survey implementation and cultural context analysis. The authors also thank the principal of Majuro Cooperative International School, Jennette Hutchinson, for letting her local staff participate in the survey during the school day. Funding for this research was provided by several internal grants through the primary author’s host institution, Virginia Commonwealth University. We confirm that there are no known conflicts of interest associated with this publication and that there has been no significant financial support for this work that could have influenced its outcome.
Data availability statement.
Study data are available from the corresponding author, by request.
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