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Changes to the Operational “Early” Eta Analysis/Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Eric RogersEnvironmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NWS/NOAA, Washington, D.C.

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Thomas L. BlackEnvironmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NWS/NOAA, Washington, D.C.

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Dennis G. DeavenEnvironmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NWS/NOAA, Washington, D.C.

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Geoffrey J. DiMegoEnvironmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NWS/NOAA, Washington, D.C.

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Qingyun ZhaoGeneral Sciences Corporation, Laurel, Maryland

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Michael BaldwinGeneral Sciences Corporation, Laurel, Maryland

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Norman W. JunkerHydrometeorological Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Washington, D.C.

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Ying LinUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

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Abstract

This note describes changes that have been made to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational “early” eta model. The changes are 1) an decrease in horizontal grid spacing from 80 to 48 km, 2) incorporation of a cloud prediction scheme, 3) replacement of the original static analysis system with a 12-h intermittent data assimilation system using the eta model, and 4) the use of satellite-sensed total column water data in the eta optimum interpolation analysis. When tested separately, each of the four changes improved model performance. A quantitative and subjective evaluation of the full upgrade package during March and April 1995 indicated that the 48-km eta model was more skillful than the operational 80-km model in predicting the intensity and movement of large-scale weather systems. In addition, the 48-km eta model was more skillful in predicting severe mesoscale precipitation events than either the 80-km eta model, the nested grid model, or the NCEP global spectral model during the March-April 1995 period. The implementation of this new version of the operational early eta system was performed in October 1995.

Abstract

This note describes changes that have been made to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational “early” eta model. The changes are 1) an decrease in horizontal grid spacing from 80 to 48 km, 2) incorporation of a cloud prediction scheme, 3) replacement of the original static analysis system with a 12-h intermittent data assimilation system using the eta model, and 4) the use of satellite-sensed total column water data in the eta optimum interpolation analysis. When tested separately, each of the four changes improved model performance. A quantitative and subjective evaluation of the full upgrade package during March and April 1995 indicated that the 48-km eta model was more skillful than the operational 80-km model in predicting the intensity and movement of large-scale weather systems. In addition, the 48-km eta model was more skillful in predicting severe mesoscale precipitation events than either the 80-km eta model, the nested grid model, or the NCEP global spectral model during the March-April 1995 period. The implementation of this new version of the operational early eta system was performed in October 1995.

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