The Variation of Track Forecast Difficulty among Tropical Cyclone Basins

Arthur C. Pike NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, FL 33146

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Charles J. Neumann NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, FL 33146

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Abstract

Tropical cyclone track forecast error ranges widely among individual storms, as well as globally. To study its regional variability, structurally identical climatology-and-persistence (CLIPER) track forecast models were constructed for the six major tropical cyclone basins of the world. Developmental errors of the models are compared as forecast difficulty levels (FDLs). The range of FDLs among the basins is >2:1, with the more difficult basins having the more poleward-average storm latitudes.

Abstract

Tropical cyclone track forecast error ranges widely among individual storms, as well as globally. To study its regional variability, structurally identical climatology-and-persistence (CLIPER) track forecast models were constructed for the six major tropical cyclone basins of the world. Developmental errors of the models are compared as forecast difficulty levels (FDLs). The range of FDLs among the basins is >2:1, with the more difficult basins having the more poleward-average storm latitudes.

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