A Decision Tree Method of Forecasting Thunderstorms, Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes

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  • 1 Bureau of Meteorology, Darlinghurst, 2010, Australia
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Abstract

A decision tree approach to forecasting thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is described which uses only meteorological parameters considered essential for these phenomena to develop. The physical relevance of the parameters is explained in terms of thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm structures and dynamics. Forecast output also includes dry microbursts, wet microbursts and downbursts, and local floods. The decision tree has had only limited subjective evaluation.

Abstract

A decision tree approach to forecasting thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is described which uses only meteorological parameters considered essential for these phenomena to develop. The physical relevance of the parameters is explained in terms of thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm structures and dynamics. Forecast output also includes dry microbursts, wet microbursts and downbursts, and local floods. The decision tree has had only limited subjective evaluation.

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