We are greatly indebted to the nine National Weather Service and Florida Division of Emergency Management forecasters who participated in the forecasting exercise detailed herein. Without their participation, this work would not have been possible. This research benefited from discussions with James Correia, Rich Grumm, Evan Kuchera, and Paul Roebber, as well as reviews by Russ Schumacher and two anonymous reviewers. Numerical simulations carried out in this research were conducted on the avi supercomputing facility at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Archived GFS, NAM, and HPC forecast products were obtained from the NCDC. Archived ECMWF forecast products were obtained from the UCAR Research Data Archive. Historical precipitation data for Tallahassee, Florida, were obtained from the Utah Climate Center. Forecast exercise questionnaires were hosted on the Google Docs platform. The Model Evaluation Toolkit was used to compute the rank histogram of the ensemble forecast system. This research was partially supported by Subaward Z11-91832 with UCAR under the sponsorship of NOAA as part of the COMET Outreach Program.
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