The authors would like to acknowledge the staff at the National Hurricane Center for their diligence in 10 years of best tracking the wind radii, and also Ann Schrader and Mike Frost for helping to make that process a bit easier. We thank Andrea Schumacher and Kate Musgrave for providing comments on the manuscript. This research is supported by the Chief of Naval Research through the NRL Base Program, PE 0601153N. We also acknowledge the Office of Naval Research for funding efforts to improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or U.S. government position, policy, or decision.
Cangialosi, J. P., , and Landsea C. W. , 2014: National Hurricane Center forecast wind radii verification. Proc. 31st Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 56. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webprogram/Paper244740.html.]
DelSole, T., , Yang X. , , and Tippett M. K. , 2013: Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 176–183, doi:10.1002/qj.1961.
DeMaria, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Improvements to the operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability model. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 586–602, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00116.1.
Goerss, J., , Sampson C. , , and Gross J. , 2004: A history of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast skill. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 633–638, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0633:AHOWNP>2.0.CO;2.
Kharin, V. V., , and Zwiers F. W. , 2002: Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles. J. Climate, 15, 793–799, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0793:CPWME>2.0.CO;2.
Knaff, J. A., , and Harper B. A. , 2010: Tropical cyclone surface wind structure and wind–pressure relationships. Proc. WMO Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones—VII, La Reunion, France, WMO, KN1–KN35. [Available online at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/otherfileformats/documents/KN1.pdf.]
Knaff, J. A., , and Sampson C. R. , 2015: After a decade are Atlantic tropical cyclone gale force wind radii forecasts now skillful? Wea. Forecasting, 30, 702–709, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-14-00149.1.
Knaff, J. A., , Guard C. , , Kossin J. , , Marchok T. , , Sampson C. , , Smith T. , , and Surgi N. , 2006: Operational guidance and skill in forecasting structure change. Proc. WMO Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones—VI, San Juan, Costa Rica, WMO, 160–184. [Available online at http://severe.worldweather.org/iwtc/document/Topic_1_5_John_Knaff.pdf.]
Knaff, J. A., , Sampson C. R. , , DeMaria M. , , Marchok T. P. , , Gross J. M. , , and McAdie C. J. , 2007: Statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction using climatology and persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 781–791, doi:10.1175/WAF1026.1.
Knaff, J. A., , Longmore S. P. , , and Molenar D. A. , 2014: An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology. J. Climate, 27, 455–476, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00096.1.
Leith, C. E., 1973: The standard error of time-average estimates of climate means. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 1066–1069, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<1066:TSEOTA>2.0.CO;2.
NHC, 2015, Introduction to storm surge. National Hurricane Center/Storm Surge Unit, 5 pp. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/surge_intro.pdf.]
Quiring, S., , Schumacher A. , , and Guikema S. , 2014: Incorporating hurricane forecast uncertainty into decision support applications. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 47–58, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00012.1.
Sampson, C. R., , and Schrader A. J. , 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system (version 3.2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1231–1240, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1231:TATCFS>2.3.CO;2.
Sampson, C. R., , Franklin J. L. , , Knaff J. A. , , and DeMaria M. , 2008: Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 304–312, doi:10.1175/2007WAF2007028.1.
Sampson, C. R., , Wittmann P. A. , , and Tolman H. L. , 2010: Consistent tropical cyclone wind and wave forecasts for the U.S. Navy. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1293–1306, doi:10.1175/2010WAF2222376.1.
Sampson, C. R., and Coauthors, 2012: Objective guidance for use in setting tropical cyclone conditions of readiness. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1052–1060, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00008.1.
Weigel, A. P., , Knutti R. , , Liniger M. A. , , and Appenzeller C. , 2010: Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections. J. Climate, 23, 4175–4191, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3594.1.