The authors are grateful for funding from the U.S. Air Force to complete this work and to NPS for funding submission fees. Support from NCAR, particularly Chris Snyder and Kate Smith, is also appreciated. Mary Jordan at NPS was helpful in preparing figures.
Boutle, I. A., A. Finnenkoetter, A. P. Lock, and H. Wells, 2016: The London Model: Forecasting fog at 333 m resolution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 360–371, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2656.
Geiszler, D. A., J. Cook, P. Tag, W. Thompson, R. Bankert, and J. Schmidt, 2000: Evaluation of ceiling and visibility prediction: Preliminary results over California using the Navy’s Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 334–338.
Gultepe, I., M. D. Müller, and Z. Boybeyi, 2006: A new visibility parameterization for warm-fog applications in numerical weather prediction models. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1469–1480, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2423.1.
Gultepe, I., and et al. , 2007a: Fog research: A review of past achievements and future perspectives. Pure Appl. Geophys., 164, 1121–1159, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-007-0211-x.
Gultepe, I., M. Pagowski, and J. Reid, 2007b: A satellite-based fog detection scheme using screen air temperature. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 444–456, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF1011.1.
Herzegh, P., and et al. , 2006: Development of FAA national ceiling and visibility products: Challenges, strategies and progress. 12th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.17, https://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_103545.htm.
Hippi, M., I. Juga, A. Rossa, F. Zardini, and F. Domenichini, 2010: Road weather and model development—Friction model and fog model. ROADIDEA Project Rep., Finnish Meteorological Institute–Regional Agency for Environmental Prevention and Protection of Veneto, 41 pp., https://cordis.europa.eu/docs/projects/cnect/5/215455/080/deliverables/001-ROADIDEAD34bRoadweathermodeldevelopment1.pdf.
Marzban, C., S. Leyton, and B. Colman, 2007: Ceiling and visibility forecasts via neural networks. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 466–479, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF994.1.
Price, J., A. Porson, and A. Loc, 2015: An observational case study of persistent fog and comparison with an ensemble forecast model. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 155, 301–327, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-014-9995-2.
Ryerson, W. R., 2012: Toward improving short-range fog prediction in data-denied areas using the Air Force Weather Agency mesoscale ensemble. Ph.D. dissertation, Naval Postgraduate School, 225 pp., http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA567345.
Ryerson, W. R., and J. P. Hacker, 2014: The potential for mesoscale visibility predictions with a multimodel ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 543–562, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00067.1.
Skamarock, W. C., and et al. , 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, 113 pp., http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH.
Tardif, R., 2007: The impact of vertical resolution in the explicit numerical forecasting of radiation fog: A case study. Pure Appl. Geophys., 164, 1221–1240, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-007-0216-5.
Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.
Zhou, B., 2011: Introduction to a new fog diagnostic scheme. NCEP Office Note 466, 43 pp.
Zhou, B., and B. S. Ferrier, 2008: Asymptotic analysis of equilibrium in radiation fog. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 1704–1722, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1685.1.
Zhou, B., and J. Du, 2010: Fog prediction from a multimodel mesoscale ensemble prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 303–322, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222289.1.
Zhou, B., J. Du, J. McQueen, and G. DiMego, 2009: Ensemble forecast of ceiling, visibility and fog with NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF). Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symp. on Weather-Air Traffic Management Integration, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4.5, https://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_142255.htm.
In a WRF Model update notice dated 21 December 2011, primary model developers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reported a bug affecting 2-m temperature predictions when the RUC land surface model is used in conjunction with the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme. Members 15 and 17 in this work are configured with these two schemes. Although a new version of WRF was released by NCAR with the bug resolved, it was too late in this work to reproduce the NWP model runs. During development and testing of the βe postprocessing technique in this work, these two members were largely excluded when a parameter pair involved 2-m predictions from the NWP model, resulting in an eight-member ensemble in these cases.