New NGM-Based MOS Guidance for Maximum/Minimum Temperature, Probability of Precipitation, Cloud Amount, and Surface Wind

Eli Jacks Techniques Development Laboratory, Office of Systems Development, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by Eli Jacks in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
J. Brent Bower Techniques Development Laboratory, Office of Systems Development, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by J. Brent Bower in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Valery J. Dagostaro Techniques Development Laboratory, Office of Systems Development, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by Valery J. Dagostaro in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
J. Paul Dallavalle Techniques Development Laboratory, Office of Systems Development, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by J. Paul Dallavalle in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Mary C. Erickson Techniques Development Laboratory, Office of Systems Development, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by Mary C. Erickson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
James C. Su Techniques Development Laboratory, Office of Systems Development, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland

Search for other papers by James C. Su in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Full access

Abstract

In this paper, we describe the development and use of new nested grid model (NGM)-based model output statistics (MOS) guidance that has been available since 26 July 1989 for 204 stations in the contiguous United States. The new guidance, which replaced the NGM-based perfect prog package that had been operational since May 1987, consists of forecasts of max/min temperature, probability of precipitation, cloud amount, and surface wind. Guidance for all four elements is available for projections of 1 and 2 days from 0000 and 1200 UTC. The limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM)-based MOS guidance package is still available and was not affected by this change. Verification on independent data shows that NGM-based MOS and LFM-based MOS temperature forecasts are about equally accurate and that both sets of MOS guidance are clearly superior to the NGM-based perfect prog guidance. For the probability of precipitation, the NGM-based MOS guidance is consistently more skillful than the perfect prog guidance, and usually more skillful than the LFM-based MOS guidance. For cloud amount, the NGM-based MOS forecasts are more skillful than either the LFM-based MOS or the NGM-based perfect prog. Finally, the NGM-based MOS and perfect prog wind forecasts are about equally skillful, and both sets are superior to the LFM-based MOS guidance.

Abstract

In this paper, we describe the development and use of new nested grid model (NGM)-based model output statistics (MOS) guidance that has been available since 26 July 1989 for 204 stations in the contiguous United States. The new guidance, which replaced the NGM-based perfect prog package that had been operational since May 1987, consists of forecasts of max/min temperature, probability of precipitation, cloud amount, and surface wind. Guidance for all four elements is available for projections of 1 and 2 days from 0000 and 1200 UTC. The limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM)-based MOS guidance package is still available and was not affected by this change. Verification on independent data shows that NGM-based MOS and LFM-based MOS temperature forecasts are about equally accurate and that both sets of MOS guidance are clearly superior to the NGM-based perfect prog guidance. For the probability of precipitation, the NGM-based MOS guidance is consistently more skillful than the perfect prog guidance, and usually more skillful than the LFM-based MOS guidance. For cloud amount, the NGM-based MOS forecasts are more skillful than either the LFM-based MOS or the NGM-based perfect prog. Finally, the NGM-based MOS and perfect prog wind forecasts are about equally skillful, and both sets are superior to the LFM-based MOS guidance.

Save