Article Type:
Research Article

Evaluation of the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecast Model Precipitation Forecasts

John O. Roads Scripps Experimental Climate Forecast Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, A-024 La Jolla, California

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T. Norman Maisel Climate Analysis Center, National Meteorological Center Washington, DC

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Print Publication:
01 Mar 1991
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1991)006<0123:EOTNMC>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
123–132
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Abstract

Precipitation forecasts by the National Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period 1 March 1987 to 30 March 1989. During 1988, the MRF model's tendency to forecast too much precipitation was reduced. However, there is now an amplified diurnal forecast cycle, which may be spurious. Another potentially serious error is that the MRF model tends to have more trace precipitation events than are observed.

Abstract

Precipitation forecasts by the National Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period 1 March 1987 to 30 March 1989. During 1988, the MRF model's tendency to forecast too much precipitation was reduced. However, there is now an amplified diurnal forecast cycle, which may be spurious. Another potentially serious error is that the MRF model tends to have more trace precipitation events than are observed.

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