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Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts

John O. RoadsClimate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, California

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T. Norman MaisalNational Weather Service/NMC, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Jordan AlpertNational Weather Service/NMC, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Abstract

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated during this period. As is shown here, the MRF model forecast skill in predicting individual wet and dry events has also increased. We show that there is substantial skill in the model forecasts of precipitation occurrences beyond 2.5 days. These MRF model forecasts have not yet been fully exploited by the forecasting community, in part, because they have not been readily available.

Abstract

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated during this period. As is shown here, the MRF model forecast skill in predicting individual wet and dry events has also increased. We show that there is substantial skill in the model forecasts of precipitation occurrences beyond 2.5 days. These MRF model forecasts have not yet been fully exploited by the forecasting community, in part, because they have not been readily available.

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